Multi-attribute utility methods in group decision making: Past applications and potential for inclusion in GDSS

This paper reviews a variety of studies in which multi-attribute utility theory (MAU) has been used successfully to aid group decision processes and discusses the incorporation of MAU in Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS). GDSS of various levels of automation have been proposed to aid group decision making. A number of commercial GDSSs are available which are capable of aiding generation of alternatives, their evaluation, and selection. Many authors have promoted the incorporation of quantitative decision making models in GDSS. The most appropriate quantitative tool for GDSS is MAU, but MAU has rarely been utilized. The cases reviewed illustrate that the use of MAU techniques is not prohibitively difficult or complex.     

On the effectiveness of cognitive feedback from an interface agent

The objective of this study was to determine the impact of task information (TI) provided by an interface agent during the idea evaluation and integration step of the problem formulation stage of the problem solving process. The effectiveness assessment was based on solving diagnostic decision problems in the domain of complex industrial machinery. Ten domain experts participated in this study. Decision support was provided by a case-based reasoning system. Findings suggest that TI provided by the interface agent had no effect on the decision maker's performance, nor on the associated cognitive effort. However, a verbal protocol analysis revealed that the ten subjects used the interface agent to verify their decision processes. The results and their implications are discussed with respect to current findings in the area of decision support systems.     

Efficient Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distributions with type-I-censored samples

The aim of this paper is to introduce an efficient Bayesian sampling procedure for exponential distribution with type-I censoring. An online inspection method is suggested to reach a Bayes decision prior the termination time of life test. Bayesian sampling plans (BSPs) with quadratic loss function are established to illustrate the use of the proposed method. Some BSPs are tabulated, and the performance of the proposed BSPs is compared with two existing competitive methods. Numerical results indicate that a significant reduction in the experimental time over the conventional BSP can be achieved when the online inspection method is applied.     

Considerations on jury size and composition using lower probabilities

The use of lower probabilities is considered for inferences in basic jury scenarios to study aspects of the size of juries and their composition if society consists of subpopulations. The use of lower probability seems natural in law, as it leads to robust inference in the sense of providing a defendant with the benefit of the doubt. The method presented in this paper focusses on how representative a jury is for the whole population, using a novel concept of a second ’imaginary’ jury together with exchangeability assumptions. It has the advantage that there is an explicit absence of any assumption with regard to guilt of a defendant. Although the concept of a jury in law is central in the presentation, the novel approach and the conclusions of this paper hold for representative decision making processes in many fields, and it also provides a new perspective to stratified sampling.     

食品供应商不同时序的质量安全水平决策分析

食品供应商的生产决策对产品质量安全水平具有决定性作用。基于此,通过建立模型重点分析了单个供应商质量安全水平决策、两个供应商同时以及按照先后顺序进行质量安全水平的决策。分析结果表明:市场监管环境、产品价格的质量安全敏感度以及标准质量安全敏感度对供应商供给的产品质量安全水平、价格及利润具有直接影响;两个供应商决定供给高低质量安全水平产品时,其质量安全水平都低于单个供应商供给的标准质量安全水平。据此,为改善我国食品安全提出了对策。     

侵华日军细菌战诉讼案回顾与思考

20 0 2年 8月 2 7日 ,侵华日军细菌战受害者向日本政府索赔一案 ,在日本东京地方法院作出一审判决 ,认定了 731部队等在中国实施细菌战的事实 ,但驳回了原告的诉讼请求。细菌战诉讼案的实践 ,给了我们诸多启示 :对日索赔案的实质是政治斗争 ;细菌战诉讼案将是长期的、艰苦的斗争 ;我们应抢救历史 ;对侵华日军细菌战史的学术研究应该加强。     

论商业信用投融资决策

商业信用对提供者而言是一种投资活动 ,对接受者来说是一种融资活动。商业信用作为企业间相互融通资金的一种重要手段 ,其在为企业带来利益的同时 ,也需企业付出一定的代价。所以企业在采用商业信用投融资时需根据成本—效益原则进行决策     

电子商务对企业定价决策的影响分析及对策

互联网的普及为买卖双方实现交易提供了便利的同时,网上的价格比较侵蚀了商品的价格底线。文章分析了电子商务对企业定价的冲击,给出了“成本透明”条件下企业定价决策的若干建议。     

高等学校专业设置工作刍议

当前,在大规模扩招和扩大办学自主权的背景下,高等学校专业设置的重要性越来越凸现。为切实做好高等学校的专业设置工作,避免盲目性与随意性,需要转变观念,充分论证,组织力量进行“前端设计”;加强科学性与民主性的决策,充分发挥学术权力作用,并正确运用行政权力;同时,在按设计方案进行操作中,要以专业设置工作贯穿于其它各项工作之中进行。     

基于三维框架的省级教育信息化政策文本量化分析

构建适切的省级教育信息化政策体系,是国家教育信息化建设取得成功的重要保障。基于政策工具的视角,以2015年以来省级政府公开的教育信息化政策为研究对象,从政策工具、政策主题和政策要素三个维度对政策文本进行挖掘分析。研究发现：省级教育信息化“政策林”已基本形成,政策文本形式以解释类文本为主,但发文主体较为单一;政策工具使用存在结构性失调,表现为对权威工具高度依赖,对激励工具和象征与劝诫工具存在一般性依赖,对能力建设与系统变革工具存在弱依赖;区域教育信息化政策内容相似度高,但在教育信息化“建”与“用”的政策主题上存在明显不同偏好,且在政策要素方面的政策供给存在“差序化格局”。最后,从丰富政策形式、优化政策工具结构、完善政策内容三个方面提出政策优化的建议。