模糊满意关系上的决策

在许多决策问题中,备选方案上的二元优先关系是模糊的。本文分析了基于二元模糊优先关系上的奥尔洛夫斯基(Orlovsky)算法。该算法中,具有最大的不劣于程度的元是最佳元,因此算法存在一些缺陷。本文提出了一种新算法。新算法中,具有最大满意程度的元是最佳元。新算法弥补了 Orlovsky 算法的缺陷。     

Stories in Decisions: How At-Risk Individuals Decide to Request Predictive Testing for Huntington Disease

Huntington Disease (HD) is a hereditary neurological disease that typically occurs in mid-life. There is no prevention or cure, but persons at risk may request predictive genetic testing to learn whether or not they will develop the disease later in life. Many studies describe why such persons request this knowledge. Few consider how people actually make this novel decision. Drawing on in-depth interviews with sixteen test candidates, this article differentiates three types of stories about—as well as embedded in—the experience of deciding. Each type of story sheds a different light on the meaning and experience of making this decision. Stories of having to know reveal that decision-making may be experienced as a self-evident act while stories of evolving toward it feature an incremental process of weighing up the implications. Stories of taking the decision feature a pivotal point which involves the narrator in seeing anew the opportunity to make a choice. Emphasizing previously neglected temporal, biographical and phenomenological dimensions of decision-making, this typology underscores the relevance of narrative in complex processes of decision-making. It also illustrates the inadequacy of understanding decision-making purely through the lens of rational choice.     

风险感知视角下邻避冲突中公众行为演化及化解策略——以浙江余杭垃圾焚烧项目为例

近几年中国公众对有害邻避设施（垃圾焚烧、化工厂等）带来环境风险的强烈感知,使得邻避类群体性事件高发频发。风险感知视角下浙江余杭垃圾焚烧项目先后经历了强烈的风险感知、坚决反对—风险感知的下降、尝试了解—态度转变、迎臂接纳三个阶段,最终成功破题原址建设。风险感知视角下邻避项目中公众的行为演化机理遵循的逻辑为：项目本身的实体风险—风险感知的放大—危机产生—介入因素转变—风险感知降低—危机解除。要摆脱邻避项目陷入应急处理的窠臼,应构建嵌入公众风险感知的常态化决策程序,其内核为公众风险感知的嵌入,中间为到位的风险沟通、科学的技术评估与合理的利益补偿三环相扣的闭环环节,协商民主的理念则贯穿整个过程。     

Universal supplier selection via multi-dimensional auction mechanisms for two-way competition in oligopoly market of supply chain

Allocation of the tasks in competitive market conditions at each echelon of the supply chain is an important activity in the supply chain. The task allocation problem, referred to as supply chain formation process, normally faces information asymmetry in the supply chain. The information asymmetry is caused by rational and intelligent players trying to maximize their own profit rather than opt for the supply chain profit as a whole. Thus, the process of allocating tasks in such situations becomes difficult and will result in externalities in the supply chain trades. These externalities can be internalized with present methodologies in the literature. In this paper, the major internalization methods in different contexts are considered. Lagrange relaxation and Vickery Clarke Groves (VCG) auction mechanism are explored in order to form a supply chain. This paper proposes the multi-stage auction mechanism analyzing two-way competitions, a Bertrand and Cournot competition where price per unit and quantity are the underlying two parameters in a utility analysis. To analyze the problem in real life, the industry example of Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation Ltd. (IRCTC) procurement process has been taken which demonstrates the usability of the proposed framework.     

论会计目标的确定

比较“受托责任观”和“决策有用观”两大会计目标理论观,在此基础上对会计目标的确定提出了个人的观点———全面信息论。认为会计目标的设定可在两种观点之间进行取舍,使其能站在公正的立场,提供客观、公正、真实、全面的信息,有效地协调好各方的利益。为多元化的信息使用者服务,促进经济的发展。     

决策责任、要价能力与人力资本激励模式选择

利用职务和贡献率两个指标,可将人力资本分为四种类型。不同类型的人力资本所有者具有不同的决策责任和要价能力,因此,企业的激励模式必须是分类激励模式,以实现决策责任和要价能力与激励方式之间的匹配,使人力资本所有者得到合理激励:对低职务低贡献人力资本,适宜采用短期激励模式;对于高职务低贡献的人力资本,宜采用以固定激励为主的中期激励模式;低职务高贡献人力资本,适合运用以收益性激励为主的中期激励模式;对于高职务高贡献型人力资本适用长期激励模式。     

论邓小平决策思想之务实品格

邓小平决策思想恢宏博大,具有很强的时代感、民族性、现实性和创造性。尤其是沉浸其中的务实品格,成为他继承和发展毛泽东决策理念的最亮的闪光点。     

知觉与学习——从决策理论看当前中美经贸合作中的认知误区

本文突破经济人偏好不变的经典假设,将知觉与学习等决策理论的有关概念引入中美经贸合作研究,对当前中美经贸合作的认知误区进行了分析。本文认为,由于人自身认知的局限性和外部结构性因素的制约,决策者和研究者也会经常出现错误知觉,并且不能通过学习迅速纠正这些错误知觉和预防新的错误知觉的形成,致使认识到合作利益或具有合作愿望的国家间不能顺利实现合作,有时甚至走向冲突。有悖于事实的负面观念在某种程度上阻止了合作的外溢与扩展。     

马科维兹投资组合的改进及其应用

通过对马科维兹(Markowitz)投资组合模型的简要分析,指出其存在缺陷,并借助熵理论对其进行了改进,拓展了熵理论在连续变量(正态分布)上的应用。通过构造性实例研究表明,改进的模型具有理论意义,可以帮助投资者针对具体的实际情况作出风险投资组合的最优投资决策。     

权重在可持续公共智能发展中的应用机制研究

认为在公共智能的发展进程中,权重将成为决策认知发展过程中定性与定量认识转换与进化的枢纽;讨论了复杂公共问题决策的共性与支持基础,介绍了作为公共智能设计基础的共识状态认知策略和决策的可持续发展策略,以及权重在其中发挥作用的机理;构建了一种在权重帮助下帮助群体认知从无结构状态向半结构化、结构化方向进化的机制。