数据挖掘在高校成绩分类管理中的应用研究

学生的信息是大量的和复杂的,学校越来越感到管理的复杂性,对于学生的状态和发展越来越难以预测,因此学校希望对学生海量数据的处理不只是简单的备份和查询,而更迫切地需要管理信息系统能够具备辅助决策的能力。应用数据挖掘技术对学生成绩分类管理进行探索,获得有益的隐含知识,支持学生工作和教学管理工作的开展,这对于素质教育的实施,更好地为学生服务提供了很好的尝试。     

An Anticipatory Governance Approach to Carbon Nanotubes

Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) are novel materials with remarkable properties; possible beneficial applications include aircraft frames, hydrogen storage, environmental sensors, electrical transmission, and many more. At the same time, precise characterization of their potential toxicity remains elusive, in part because engineered nanostructures pose challenges to existing assays, predictive models, and dosimetry. While these obstacles are surmountable, their presence suggests that scientific uncertainty regarding the hazards of CNTs is likely to persist. Traditional U.S. policy approaches implicitly pose the question: “What level of evidence is necessary and sufficient to justify regulatory action?” In the case of CNTs, such a strategy of risk analysis is of limited immediate utility to both regulators essaying to carry out their mandates, and users of CNTs seeking to provide an appropriate level of protection to employees, customers, and other stakeholders. In contrast, the concept of anticipatory governance suggests an alternative research focus, that is: “Given the conflicted character of the data, how should relevant actors respond?” Adopting the latter theoretical framework, this article argues that currently available data support treating CNTs “as if” they are hazardous, while simultaneously highlighting some systemic uncertainties in many of the experiments carried out to date. Such a conclusion implies limiting exposure throughout product lifecycles, and also points to the possible applicability of various conceptual tools, such as life‐cycle and multicriteria decision analysis approaches, in choosing appropriate courses of action in the face of prolonged uncertainty.     

推理有效性的判定方法及其特点比较——以命题逻辑为例

以命题逻辑为例,对其有效性的判定方法进行分析比较,旨在加深人们对逻辑灵魂的理解,并促成由自发运用到自觉运用的转变。     

考虑滞后的寡头发电商报价动态模型及其复杂性

在发电商报价古诺模型基础上,运用有限理性动态与自适应动态,建立了考虑滞后的电力报价动态模型,然后对动态模型的稳定域、倍岔、混沌等进行仿真分析;在此基础上,分别分析了滞后因子与不同报价动态对发电商的平均收益的影响,然后运用状态滞后反馈控制方法,对滞后报价动态模型进行了混沌控制分析;分析结果表明:1)引入滞后因子有利于报价系统的稳定,但并不一定能增加发电商的收益;2)在均衡状态下发电商获得最大的平均收益,在Nash均衡形成前,发电商宜采用自适应动态,但失稳后则宜采用有限理性动态;3)选择合适的控制参数,可维持报价系统Nash均衡的稳定,但若发电商仅考虑短期收益,则没有积极性去采用滞后控制策略.     

基于语言评价信息的快速集结方法研究

针对具有语言评价信息的多指标群决策问题,研究了基于二元语义的快速集结方法。把各决策者的语言评价信息转化为二元语义矩阵;依据各决策者的判断偏好,提出方案属性权重求解的规划模型;通过集结和比较各决策者偏好和总体偏好的差异,提出决策者权重确定模型;定义决策者判断一致度及决策者偏差的查找算法,快速辨别偏差较大的决策者并对其提供偏好调整建议;文后例子将其应用于某危险品的救险应急方案的选择。     

高管团队内部动态特征实证研究

通过对中国企业高层管理团队内部动态特征(以沟通、冲突与决策质量作为3个关键变量)的实证研究,发现高层管理团队沟通规范有利于决策质量的提高,而高层管理团队内情绪冲突的增多会降低决策的质量.此外,高层管理团队沟通规范也促进团队内认知冲突的增加.研究结论指出了高层管理团队内部动态特征之间的联系,同时也为业界提高高层管理团队决策质量,进而增进团队绩效提供了方向.     

分布式认知理论及其在管理实践中的应用

介绍了一种新的认知理论--分布式认知理论.在分布式认知"信息发布-信息筛选判断-认知收敛"的系统流程中,重点论述了分布式认知的收敛机制,并根据决策中心所处的位置及决策特征提出了无中心式、弱中心式、强中心式3种收敛机制.结合一系列管理实践案例对比了3种收敛机制的作用.结果发现,合理运用不同类型的分布式认知收敛机制,能够有效提高民主管理、跨专业难题解决、竞争情报收集分析、公共管理等领域决策的准确性.     

基于投影的直觉模糊数多属性决策方法

针对指标取值以直觉模糊数形式给出的多属性决策问题,提出了一种基于投影的直觉模糊决策方法.该方法依据一般投影分析方法的基本思路,给出了解决属性取值为直觉模糊数的多属性决策问题的计算步骤,其核心是通过构建并求解每个方案在虚拟正、负理想方案上的投影,进而计算出每个方案对虚拟正、负理想方案的相对隶属度,即可得到所有方案的排序结果.最后给出的数值算例表明,该方法简单、有效和易于计算.     

Use of Advances in Technology for Maritime Risk Assessment

The maritime industry is moving toward a "goal-setting" risk-based regime. This opens the way to safety engineers to explore and exploit flexible and advanced risk modeling and decision-making approaches in the design and operation processes. In this article, following a brief review of the current status of maritime risk assessment, a design/operation selection framework and a design/operation optimization framework are outlined. A general discussion of control engineering techniques and their application to risk modeling and decision making is given. Four novel risk modeling and decision-making approaches are then outlined with illustrative examples to demonstrate their use. Such approaches may be used as alternatives to facilitate risk modeling and decision making in situations where conventional techniques cannot be appropriately applied. Finally, recommendations on further exploitation of advances in general engineering and technology are suggested with respect to risk modeling and decision making.