我国汽车工业出口产品结构再探讨

通过时国际国内各种影响因素的分析和测算，探讨了我国汽车工业的近、远期出口产品结构，有独到的见解。     

我国公务员工资收入决定机制成因：一个基于劳动力市场分割理论的定性解释

公务员收入分配是整个社会收入分配的重要组成部分。本文全面描述了我国现行公务员工资收入格局，以劳动力市场分割理论为基础对我国公务员工资决定机制成因提出了理论解释，明确了我国公务员工资制度未来的改革方向，提出应按照市场经济要求理顺工资关系，消除市场分割因素，依法调整工资，建立科学、完善的公务员工资制度。     

学生贷款回收问题的国际比较研究

为了体现教育的平等化原则以及减轻财政负担,世界各国政府纷纷推行助学贷款制度,然而在实践中,大多数国家的成效却未尽如人意,其中最主要的表现便是偏低的回收率。其中的得失成败,可为中国的教育政策抉择提供借鉴。     

现行联合演算的判定标准不可靠的理由

希尔柏脱和阿克曼试图导出一个普遍可行的判定标准 ,判定一联合演算公式是否永真。克劳斯用这个标准来论证传统推论式并排除不正确的推理式。但是 ,由希尔柏脱和阿克曼提出并经克劳斯转述的所谓联合演算的“判定标准”并不是一个十分可靠的标准。联合演算的最特殊的方面是 ,其演算不可能在单一的层次上进行 ,必须在两个层次上同时进行。第一个层次是命题逻辑的层次 ,第二个层次是谓词逻辑或类逻辑的层次。希尔柏脱和阿克曼试图在笫一个层次上解决问题 ,克劳斯则承袭其思路 ,总是想把一联合演算的公式化为使其竖号在公式最外面的形式 ,然后在判定过程中脱去竖号。忽视联合演算的两个层次 ,正是现行联合演算出现混乱和错误的根源     

Biting the Bayesian bullet: Zeckhauser's problem

A troubling challenge to the basic principles of Bayesian decision theory is analyzed as a case where irrationality is no intellectual flaw but a characterological one, i.e., not stupidity but funk.     

A Bayesian approach to Markov modelling in cost-effectiveness analyses: application to taxane use in advanced breast cancer

Summary. The paper demonstrates how cost-effectiveness decision analysis may be implemented from a Bayesian perspective, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods for both the synthesis of relevant evidence input into the model and the evaluation of the model itself. The desirable aspects of a Bayesian approach for this type of analysis include the incorporation of full parameter uncertainty, the ability to perform all the analysis, including each meta-analysis, in a single coherent model and the incorporation of expert opinion either directly or regarding the relative credibility of different data sources. The method is described, and its ease of implementation demonstrated, through a practical example to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of using taxanes for the second-line treatment of advanced breast cancer compared with conventional treatment. For completeness, the results from the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation model are compared and contrasted with those from a classical Monte Carlo simulation model.     

决策支持系统的人机关系研究

决策支持系统中人机结合的思想已被广泛接受 ,但目前的结合多集中在人机界面层次和决策问题的模型求解层次。本文通过分析当前决策问题的特点 ,从认识层次、信息层次和组织层次系统地分析了人机关系 ,认为决策支持系统的人机结合应反映在决策全过程 ,并且还体现在完成决策支持的组织机构上。也就是说人机关系体现在人与计算机之间的更为广泛的交流上 ,以及完成交流的有关环境上。     

One-shot decisions under Linear Partial Information

This paper purports to make a contribution to the analysis of a class of decisions that has received little attention in the literature, although it appears to be of considerable importance. Certain decisions cannot be repeated but must be made under fuzziness in the sense that state probabilities are not exactly known (LPI-fuzziness). The analysis of Linear Partial Information is applied to the principle of neglecting small probabilities found by Allais (1953), enabling the decision maker to break away from the maxmin criterion. By systematic exploitation of the fuzzy information available, strategies are shown to exist that provide payoffs whose lower bound exceeds the maxmin benchmark with sufficiently high probability. The same methodology is shown to be useful for dealing with the case of only ordinal preference orderings that are so typical of those crucial decisions that may be made only once in a lifetime.     

The Value of Animal Test Information in Environmental Control Decisions

Value of information (VOI)analytic techniques are used to evaluate the benefit of performing animal bioassays to provide information about the cancer potency of specific chemical compounds. These tools allow the identification of the conditions in which the cost of reducing uncertainty about potency, by performing a subchronic or chronic bioassay, is justified by the benefit of having improved information for making control decisions. The decision analytic results are readily scaled to apply to a range of human contact rates (exposures)and a variety of control strategies. The sensitivity of results to uncertainty about animal to human extrapolation and the design of the bioassay is explored. An evaluation of the possible gains in general understanding about the mechanisms of carcinogenicity resulting from chronic bioassays is beyond the scope of this approach.     

仿真系统概念模型的有效性确认

仿真技术在各种系统分析、系统设计、管理控制、性能评价以及人员培训等方面都得到了广泛应用。但是，不幸的是仿真很容易被利用不当，原因主要是缺乏模型确认。本文旨在阐述如何应用决策理论对仿真系统概念模型的有效性进行确认，并提出一些个人见解。