Agreements About Extra-Dyadic Sex in Gay Men's Relationships: Exploring Differences in Relationship Quality by Agreement Type and Rule-Breaking Behavior

Research comparing the quality of monogamous and non-monogamous (“open”) relationships among gay men has produced mixed findings. In addition, little is known about the consequences of breaking the rules of relationship agreements about extra-dyadic sex. Results from a survey of 229 gay men in romantic relationships showed that open relationships were less passionate, but no less intimate or committed, than monogamous or “threesome-only” relationships. However, men who broke rules reported lower relationship quality overall, regardless of the relationship agreement. Thus, it is less the nature of the agreement itself than adhering to the conditions of it that influences relationship quality.     

Prediction intervals for farima processes by bootstrap methods

In this paper we introduce a procedure to compute prediction intervals for FARIMA (p d q) processes, taking into account the variability due to model identification and parameter estimation. To this aim, a particular bootstrap technique is developed. The performance of the prediction intervals is then assessed and compared to that of stand­ard bootstrap percentile intervals. The methods are applied to the time series of Nile River annual minima.     

Sensitivity Analysis Using Risk Measures

In a quantitative model with uncertain inputs, the uncertainty of the output can be summarized by a risk measure. We propose a sensitivity analysis method based on derivatives of the output risk measure, in the direction of model inputs. This produces a global sensitivity measure, explicitly linking sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. We focus on the case of distortion risk measures, defined as weighted averages of output percentiles, and prove a representation of the sensitivity measure that can be evaluated on a Monte Carlo sample, as a weighted average of gradients over the input space. When the analytical model is unknown or hard to work with, nonparametric techniques are used for gradient estimation. This process is demonstrated through the example of a nonlinear insurance loss model. Furthermore, the proposed framework is extended in order to measure sensitivity to constant model parameters, uncertain statistical parameters, and random factors driving dependence between model inputs.     

Predictors of Antisocial and Prosocial Behavior in an Adolescent Sports Context

This study examined antisocial and prosocial behavior of N = 439 adolescent athletes between 14 and 17 years of age (67 teams). Multi‐level analyses showed that team membership explained 20 and 13 percent of the variance in antisocial and prosocial behavior in the sports context, respectively. The team effects suggest that aggregating antisocial or prosocial adolescents within teams may partially explain differences in antisocial and prosocial behavior among athletes in the sports context. A trend was found toward a relation between higher levels of moral reasoning within teams, and less antisocial behavior in the sports context. Favorable moral atmosphere was positively associated with more prosocial behavior in the sports context. Finally, supportive coach–athlete relationships were associated with both less antisocial and more prosocial behavior in the sports context.     

Interval estimation for the breakpoint in segmented regression: a smoothed score‐based approach

This paper is concerned with interval estimation for the breakpoint parameter in segmented regression. We present score‐type confidence intervals derived from the score statistic itself and from the recently proposed gradient statistic. Due to lack of regularity conditions of the score, non‐smoothness and non‐monotonicity, naive application of the score‐based statistics is unfeasible and we propose to exploit the smoothed score obtained via induced smoothing. We compare our proposals with the traditional methods based on the Wald and the likelihood ratio statistics via simulations and an analysis of a real dataset: results show that the smoothed score‐like statistics perform in practice somewhat better than competitors, even when the model is not correctly specified.     

克吕尼运动的性质及其与格列高利改革的关系

本文旨在考察克吕尼运动的性质及其与格列高利改革的关系。作为中世纪欧洲集权尝试的开端,克吕尼运动和格列高利改革分别指向集权的两个基本面,即道德方面和政治方面。克吕尼运动在本质上是一场道德革新运动,其成功关键在于将集权作为道德革新的基本手段。格列高利改革将克吕尼的经验拓展至政治领域,一反遁世离俗的本尼迪克式理想,要求按照基督教原则改造现实世界,从而奠定了12、13世纪政教斗争的基本逻辑。一方面,克吕尼运动为格列高利改革提供了思想条件和技术手段;另一方面,克吕尼运动始终将自己约束在道德革新领域。究其原因,它的理想本质上是本尼迪克式的。     

《大西洋宪章》再现英美论战——评述历史对中美构建新型大国关系的启示

《大西洋宪章》是"二战"期间英美两国首脑首次会晤最重要的成果,它的诞生不仅标志着英美两国政治同盟的形成,也对后来反法西斯大同盟和联合国的建立产生了重要影响。但英美两国的战略处境不同,致使所抱的预期目标差距甚大。罗斯福的主要目标是想发表一个能阐述战争目的和重建战后世界和平秩序构想的联合宣言,而丘吉尔则期望通过会晤来解决英国当时所面临的一系列现实问题。然而,作为"求援者"来参会的丘吉尔最终不得不屈从于罗斯福,二人会晤后所发表的《大西洋宪章》也主要体现了罗斯福的思想和意志。重温这次英美首脑会晤以及《大西洋宪章》在战后所产生的作用,对当下中美两国在太平洋地区构建新型大国关系颇有启示。     

20世纪金宋关系史论著目录--建国前

据不完全统计，1911至1949年间共出版、发表涉及金宋关系史著作、论文205余部、篇，其中著作49部，论文156余篇。目录分为著作、史料与文献、金宋和战、经济交流、人物、其他6类。     

Power and dependence perspectives on outsourcing decisions

Since the 1980s outsourcing has been a major topic in both economic and management literature. Economic literature tends to focus on the transaction cost perspective. In management literature the core competence approach prevails. An emerging alternative view on outsourcing is the power and dependence perspective. Aspects of power and dependence become visible in four case studies involving the maintenance of capital assets. In each instance both the buyer and supplier sides of the dyad are examined. The paper concludes with managerial implications and research opportunities.     

The estimation of treatment effect for the censored bivariate data under the univariate censoring

This paper establishes a nonparametric estimator for the treatment effect on censored bivariate data under unvariate censoring. This proposed estimator is based on the one from Lin and Ying(1993)'s nonparametric bivariate survival function estimator, which is itself a generalized version of Park and Park(1995)' quantile estimator. A Bahadur type representation of quantile functions were obtained from the marginal survival distribution estimator of Lin and Ying' model. The asymptotic property of this estimator is shown below and the simulation studies are also given