杭州消费者食品安全风险认知研究

杭州消费者的食品安全风险认知总体上偏离了实际风险水平,消费者忽视各类食品的安全风险,夸大各类食品危害因素的风险程度。消费者食品安全风险认知还表现出了显著的矛盾性,在蔬菜农药残留问题上,安全性评价和风险性评价出现了正相关的情况。影响杭州消费者食品安全风险认知的主要因素是“失去控制”,次要因素为“严重后果”和“政府失职”,人口统计特征变量对食品安全风险认知有显著影响。     

也谈“饭盒”和“盒饭”

王希杰先生在《新加坡语文随笔》的《饭盒和盒饭》中把新加坡人的“吃饭盒”同南京人的“吃冰棒”的说法相类比,认为“冰棒是棒棒儿”,“饭盒是装饭的盒子”,既然“吃冰棒”(吃棒棒儿)可以说,那么“吃饭盒”当然也可以说。可是,考之于两个词限定成分的性质、同中心成分的语义关系及整个词语的命名角度和表义功能,就会发现两个词在这几个方面都是完全不同的。“冰棒”是以冰为原料做成的棒,其原料具有可食性,故可以说“吃冰棒”,“饭盒”是装饭的盒子,其制造原料是不可食的,不能说“吃饭盒”。     

低生育水平下的生育意愿研究

本文是课题组2006-2007年在江苏六县/市开展调查的初步分析报告。本调查从多个角度测量收集了有关生育意愿、生育观念、生育计划及其影响因素的信息,初步探讨了生育的政策、意愿、计划、行为之间的关系。调查发现,育龄妇女的意愿生育水平和实际生育水平都远远低于更替水平,理想子女数、现有子女数、生育打算和政策允许的生育子女数之间存在差距。育龄妇女对子女作用和子女价值的认识已经变化,精神需求是生育的重要理由。生育政策对人们的生育意愿和生育行为的影响已不是首要因素,经济、社会、文化等因素才影响人们的生育决策。     

Outliers detection with the minimum covariance determinant estimator in practice

Robust statistics have slowly become familiar to all practitioners. Books entirely devoted to the subject (e.g. [R.A. Maronna, R.D. Martin, V.J. Yohai, Robust Statistics: Theory and Methods. John Wiley &; Sons, New York, NY, USA, 2006; P.J. Rousseeuw, A.M. Leroy, Robust Regression and Outlier Detection, John Wiley &; Sons, New York, NY, USA, 1987], …) are without any doubt responsible for the increased practice of robust statistics in all fields of applications. Even classical books often have at least one chapter (or parts of chapters) which develops robust methodology. The improvement of computing power has also contributed to the development of a wider and wider range of available robust procedures. However, this success story is now menacing to get backwards: non-specialists interested in the application of robust methodology are faced with a large set of (assumed equivalent) methods and with over-sophistication of some of them. Which method should one use? How should the (numerous) parameters be optimally tuned? These questions are not so easy to answer for non-specialists! One could then argue that default procedures are available in most statistical software (Splus, R, SAS, Matlab, …). However, using as illustration the detection of outliers in multivariate data, it is shown that, on one hand, it is not obvious that one would feel confident with the output of default procedures, and that, on the other hand, trying to understand thoroughly the tuning parameters involved in the procedures might require some extensive research. This is not conceivable when trying to compete with the classical methodology which (while clearly unreliable) is so straightforward. The aim of the paper is to help the practitioners willing to detect in a reliable way outliers in a multivariate data set. The chosen methodology is the Minimum Covariance Determinant estimator being widely available and intuitively appealing.     

Finding an unknown number of multivariate outliers

Summary.  We use the forward search to provide robust Mahalanobis distances to detect the presence of outliers in a sample of multivariate normal data. Theoretical results on order statistics and on estimation in truncated samples provide the distribution of our test statistic. We also introduce several new robust distances with associated distributional results. Comparisons of our procedure with tests using other robust Mahalanobis distances show the good size and high power of our procedure. We also provide a unification of results on correction factors for estimation from truncated samples.     

客户忠诚决定因素实证研究

在现有研究成果的基础上提出了一个描述客户忠诚与其决定因素之间关系的综合理论 模型. 选择中国IT 分销行业为背景,聘请专业调研公司以上门走访的方式收集了367 个企业 客户的样本数据,然后利用结构方程建模(SEM) 软件EQS5. 7b ,对该模型作了检验. 检验结果 表明:客户认知价值、客户满意、客户信任和转移成本是客户忠诚的四个决定因素,其中客户认 知价值是核心决定因素,对客户忠诚有着最大的影响. 讨论了实证结论对企业CRM 实践的指 导意义.     

Some Observations on the Correlation Determinant

The lower 5% point of the correlation determinant in the null case, that is with zero parental correlations in the multivariate, normally distributed, data set, are presented for sample sizes up to 30. Repeated Monte Carlo simulation suggests that the limits are correct to +/?2 units in the third place of decimals. Thus the limits permit a test of hypothesis for the mutual independence of the variates involved. For sample sizes greater than 30, an asymptotic approximation based on the chi-squared distribution, as proposed by Morrison (2005 Morrison , D. F. ( 2005 ). Multivariate Statistical Methods , 4th . ed. London : Thompson Brooks/Cde . [Google Scholar]), is shown to be quite reliable.     

非法诱惑侦查的认定与证明

基于“认定标准”与“证明制度”这两个维度检视国内和域外诱惑侦查制度，可以发现中国存在制度规范缺失、司法操作不力和理论研究不足等问题，以致打击犯罪与保障人权严重失衡。反观诱惑侦查理论和实践较为发达的域外法，其认定标准由单一主观标准或客观标准向混合的双重标准或分离的双重标准发展，并形成各自独有的证明模式。结合中国司法制度和实践，提出解决问题的有效途径，以期抑制非法诱惑侦查:第一，破除传统的二分法模式，重新设置诱惑侦查合法与非法的界限；第二，解决主观标准和客观标准之间的争议，确立主客观分离的双重审查标准；第三，量化分离式双重审查标准的认定要素，协调各要素之间的互动关系；第四，纠正异化的证明责任分配，明确控辩双方的证明责任和证明标准。     

我国金融排斥程度省际差异的影响因素研究

近年来,越来越多的研究文献和我国的实际情况都表明我国各省区金融排斥程度状况存在较大的省际差异。为研究金融排斥省际差异的影响因素,文章在已有研究成果的基础上,从经济、社会、人文地理等三个方面构建了相应的评价指标体系,利用相关统计数据和Tobit模型进行了回归分析。计量结果显示,我国金融排斥程度的省际差异受地区工商业化水平、居民的收入水平、城市化水平、住房拥有状况、信息技术水平、地理特征、居民的受教育水平、人口年龄结构等因素的影响显著。根据计量结果,文章提出了要破解金融排斥难题需要促进各地区经济发展,政策要向中西部地区倾斜,提高各地区城市化水平,提高居民受教育水平等政策启示。     

Main Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the Southeast European Countries

The growth of foreign direct investments (FDI) in the world has been significant in recent years. Between 1990 and 2000 worldwide FDI inflows increased more than five times, and since 2000 they have declined. During the period of FDI expansion, growth was especially strong from 1997 onward. However, most of the FDI transactions were between the developed countries. The distribution of FDI is unequal and less-developing countries face difficulties in attracting FDI. Despite the fact that FDI is increasingly important to developing countries, over the past few years the share of the developing countries in worldwide FDI inflows has been declining. The paper analyses geographical and sector distribution of FDI in the Southeast European countries (SEEC) and compares its amount with that in Central East European countries. According to economic theory, FDI towards developing countries flows for labor-intensive and low-technology production, while towards developed states, it flows for high-technology production. Identification of determining factors of FDI is a complex problem which depends on several characteristics specific for each country, sectors, and companies. All those factors could be grouped in three broad categories: economic policy of host country, economic performance, and attractiveness of national economy. On the desegregated level, FDI depends on size and growth potential of a national economy, natural resources endowments and quality of workforce, openness to international trade and access to international markets, and quality of physical, financial, and technological infrastructure. An important question is how SEEC can attract more foreign investment. To find the answer, this paper uses data on FDI inflows to SEEC to determine the main host country determinants of FDI and provides regression-based estimation of determinants of FDI. Using a sample of SEEC and panel data techniques, the determinants of FDI in this part of Europe are investigated. The paper researches the relationship between FDI, GDP, GDP per capita, number of inhabitants, trade openness, inflation, external debt, and information and communication technology sectors. For SEEC, FDI inflows are largely dependent on the completion of the privatization process and in this paper we include the level of private sector and privatization as explanatory variables. Our findings suggest that certain variables such as privatization and trade regime, as well as the density of infrastructure, appear to be robust under different specifications. A positive significance of the agglomeration factor is also observed, confirming the relevant theoretical propositions. However, certain differential variables, such as the privatization, could not be fully captured due to the statistical homogeneity of the sample.