Model-based measurement of latent risk in time series with applications

Summary.  Risk is at the centre of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments in planning countermeasures, the risk and severity of counterparty default concerns bank risk managers daily and the risk of infection has actuarial and epidemiological consequences. However, risk cannot be observed directly and it usually varies over time. We introduce a general multivariate time series model for the analysis of risk based on latent processes for the exposure to an event, the risk of that event occurring and the severity of the event. Linear state space methods can be used for the statistical treatment of the model. The new framework is illustrated for time series of insurance claims, credit card purchases and road safety. It is shown that the general methodology can be effectively used in the assessment of risk.     

带通滤波器的计算新思路

用一种新的思路和方法 ,先计算低通、再计算高通滤波器的有关参数 ,然后组合成带通滤波器     

单片微机MCS-51实时测量系统中一批数据的一种数字滤波方法

提出了一种在单片微机实时测量系统中对成批数据进行二次算术平均数字滤波的一种方法，具有节省内存、编程简洁、运行较快的特点，滤波系数ｎ，ｍ和采样间隔ＴＳ通过键盘设置，是对在一定范围内波动变化的参量进行预处理的一种较好方法     

单片机在柴油机工况检测中的应用

介绍了由单片微机构成的柴油机工况测试系统，该系统可测量柴油的油温、油压、冷却水温度及发动机转速等运行参数，并可综合分析运行状况，实现越界报警和飞车控制。详细讨论了测量原理与方法，给出了系统结构及测量电路。     

宽带数字下变频的高效实现方法研究

针对软件无线电接收机中数字下变频的特点,提出了一种合理的基于FPGA实现宽带数字下变频的方案,即分级实现以降低抗混叠滤波器的阶数;并且每级采用不同算法实现滤波抽取以占用不同资源,从而实现FPGA总体资源的合理、高效利用。另外,论述了一种适合FIR抽取滤波器的算法——时钟选择运算法,并通过Altera公司的EP2S60F484C4对该算法进行了测试,验证了它的高效性。     

Computational methods for complex stochastic systems: a review of some alternatives to MCMC

We consider analysis of complex stochastic models based upon partial information. MCMC and reversible jump MCMC are often the methods of choice for such problems, but in some situations they can be difficult to implement; and suffer from problems such as poor mixing, and the difficulty of diagnosing convergence. Here we review three alternatives to MCMC methods: importance sampling, the forward-backward algorithm, and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). We discuss how to design good proposal densities for importance sampling, show some of the range of models for which the forward-backward algorithm can be applied, and show how resampling ideas from SMC can be used to improve the efficiency of the other two methods. We demonstrate these methods on a range of examples, including estimating the transition density of a diffusion and of a discrete-state continuous-time Markov chain; inferring structure in population genetics; and segmenting genetic divergence data.     

Graphical Techniques for Selecting Explanatory Variables for Time Series Data

Bayesian model building techniques are developed for data with a strong time series structure and possibly exogenous explanatory variables that have strong explanatory and predictive power. The emphasis is on finding whether there are any explanatory variables that might be used for modelling if the data have a strong time series structure that should also be included. We use a time series model that is linear in past observations and that can capture both stochastic and deterministic trend, seasonality and serial correlation. We propose the plotting of absolute predictive error against predictive standard deviation. A series of such plots is utilized to determine which of several nested and non-nested models is optimal in terms of minimizing the dispersion of the predictive distribution and restricting predictive outliers. We apply the techniques to modelling monthly counts of fatal road crashes in Australia where economic, consumption and weather variables are available and we find that three such variables should be included in addition to the time series filter. The approach leads to graphical techniques to determine strengths of relationships between the dependent variable and covariates and to detect model inadequacy as well as determining useful numerical summaries.     

FL115离心式机油滤清器的特性研究与试验分析

建立了分流离心式滤清器转速特性和液力特性的数学模型.通过试验得到FL115离心式滤清器在不同喷嘴口径以及不同温度工况下的转速特性曲线和液力特性曲线,以及滤清效率.分析了转子转速、驱动流量和进油压力三者之间的关系,推出了设计喷嘴的最佳口径范围.通过理论数据与试验数据的比较,证明了该数学模型可以作为研发离心式滤清器的设计参考.     

一种准最佳数字传输系统的性能分析与实现

提出一种在数字传输系统中易于实现的发、收滤波器特性的准最佳分配方案:将信道升余弦滚降特性和宽码输入补偿网络特性都以平方根形式均分于发、收两端。分析和计算了这种系统的等效信噪比损失;用计算机优化方法设计了形成滤波器;最后计算了此系统残存符号间干扰所引起的损失。     

Estimating the Risks of Smoking, Air Pollution, and Passive Smoke on Acute Respiratory Conditions

Five years of the annual Health Interview Survey, conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics, are used to estimate the effects of air pollution, smoking, and environmental tobacco smoke on respiratory restrictions in activity for adults, and bed disability for children. After adjusting for several socioeconomic factors, the multiple regression estimates indicate that an independent and statistically significant association exists between these three forms of air pollution and respiratory morbidity. The comparative risks of these exposures are computed and the plausibility of the relative risks is examined by comparing the equivalent doses with actual measurements of exposure taken in the homes of smokers. The results indicate that: (1) smokers will have a 55-75% excess in days with respiratory conditions severe enough to cause reductions in normal activity; (2) a 1 microgram increase in fine particulate matter air pollution is associated with a 3% excess in acute respiratory disease; and (3) a pack-a-day smoker will increase respiratory restricted days for a nonsmoking spouse by 20% and increase the number of bed disability days for young children living in the household by 20%. The results also indicate that the estimates of the effects of secondhand smoking on children are improved when the mother's work status is known and incorporated into the exposure estimate.