矿难治理对策：一种劳动经济学分析视角

矿难频发已成为中国煤炭行业发展的“毒瘤”,必须加以根本性的解决。运用劳动经济学的享乐工资模型分析中小煤矿矿难事故问题,指出矿工的特定劳动供给行为和矿主基于利润最大化的劳动需求行为共同构成了矿难事故的成因及条件。因此,治理矿难必须从调整矿工的劳动供给行为与矿主的劳动需求行为两个方面入手,即在享乐主义工资模型动态化的基础上提出对应的治理对策,方能达到治本的目的。这些治理对策包括改善社会整体就业环境、提高矿工整体薪酬水平、逐步提高矿难死亡赔偿标准等。     

清朝前期(1644～1839年)湖南生物灾害研究

清朝前期(1644～1839年)湖南境内发生的生物灾害主要为虫灾和疫灾。虫灾以危及稻麦的蝗灾为主,疫灾既有危及人体的瘟疫也有危害耕畜的牛瘟,对社会生产生活都造成了较大的影响。     

Explanatory Matrices on the Causes of a Tailing Dam Collapse in Brazil: The (Dis)Articulation of Epistemes

Mining tailing dam ruptures are increasingly common events in South America. Due to their high potential degree for avoidance, they are considered to be technological disasters and often have a considerable impact on local populations and communities, as well as affecting the ecosystem. The failure of the Fundão dam in 2015 in the Brazilian State of Minas Gerais (is) considered one of the largest socioenvironmental disasters in the country's history. Different explanations for the causes of the disaster were put forward by various social actors. This article critically analyzes these discourses through the theoretical-methodological reference of the social theory of discourse, with the aim of understanding the various discursive contexts of the causes of the breach of the dam. The analysis and understanding of these explanatory matrices suggested that different discourses present different epistemological approaches to the causes of the disaster, related to aspects such as sociohistorical, political, ideological, and asymmetric relations of power. The statements had different emphases, being associated with distinct epistemic positions that were often not in convergence.  Moreover, certain terms and approaches reinforce or minimize processes of vulnerability experienced by the affected populations. These discourses present consents, dissents, and contradictions and when systematically integrated can improve the planning of risk management and broaden the understanding related to technological disaster occurrence.     

水库溃坝洪水数值模拟与防洪管理对策研究

目前防洪措施的制定主要基于定性分析与经验判断，防洪措施集中于防洪工程设施的管理与维护、源头控制、法规制定、自然保护区措施、经济手段、洪水预警等方面，缺乏基于定量分析的防洪措施的研究。基于溃坝洪水数值模拟得到的淹没范围、水深和流速等关键信息，对深圳市公明水库的防洪工程与非工程措施进行了研究，为区域防洪决策与规划管理提供了理论依据。     

Promoting sense-making in volatile environments: Developing resilience in disaster management

Over the past decade, the research on disaster administration has taken a critical look at the command and control operations in disaster response and recovery. Following the notable bureaucratic failures in response to Hurricane Katrina and the tsunami in Indonesia, researchers have focused on disaster administration system. The various actors within the system should focus on sense-making and resilience to be agile in the face of catastrophic events. This study profiles the contributions made through a focus on developing resilience in disaster management. Through a detailed literature review in multiple areas of the disaster management literature, along with illustrative examples from the challenges that agents have faced in several recent global disasters from 2014 to the present, the importance of resilience is highlighted. Areas for future research are included.     

Evacuation from Natural Disasters: A Systematic Review of the Literature

Research on evacuation from natural disasters has been published across the peer‐reviewed literature among several disparate disciplinary outlets and has suggested a wide variety of predictors of evacuation behavior. We conducted a systematic review to summarize and evaluate the current literature on demographic, storm‐related, and psychosocial correlates of natural disaster evacuation behavior. Eighty‐three eligible papers utilizing 83 independent samples were identified. Risk perception was a consistent positive predictor of evacuation, as were several demographic indicators, prior evacuation behavior, and having an evacuation plan. The influence of prior experiences, self‐efficacy, personality, and links between expected and actual behavior were examined less frequently. Prospective, longitudinal designs are relatively uncommon. Although difficult to conduct in postdisaster settings, more prospective, methodologically rigorous studies would bolster inferences. Results synthesize the current body of literature on evacuation behavior and can help inform the design of more effective predisaster evacuation warnings and procedures.     

Disaster‐time Economy and an Economy of Morals: A Different Economic Order from the Market Economy under Globalization*

With the experience of two severe disasters (the Hanshin Awaji Earthquake disaster of 1995 and the Great East Japan Earthquake disaster of 2011), I wish to consider “subsistence” as human life, existence equaling the basic activities of life, an essential mutual act‐like existence economy. In this paper, I pursue a positive development of “disaster‐time economics” as a research object under the larger framework of the formation of a “moral economy,” as part of a critical process. In this paper, in order that a stricken area and society may aim at the realization of a new methodology about “creative revival” for newly developing independent research involving the state of the revival fund of a wide sense is carried out. Nevertheless, there is an overall understanding of who, in what areas, and using what methodology, has conducted research in the restoration and revival process, as well as the weak points that tend to hinder the process. There is no research on the rationality and function of public finance expenditures or national sources expenditures. Therefore, in this paper, the term “disaster‐time economy” is newly prepared. From this concept, many activities of the project, service, support, self‐efforts etc. of a social and private domain are grasped from a public sphere in connection with the process of maintenance/restoration under the disaster. The feature and subject point of the process are clarified. The market economy order that is going to be produced in this process does the basic work and determines the economic order for another self‐subsistence over life.     

善治视野下城市型水灾害防治中的公民参与

近年来，频繁发生的城市型水灾害给城市带来了巨大财产损失和人员伤亡，制约着城市的良性运行和可持续发展。基于善治理论，政府和公民合作才能实现良好的治理，公民参与城市型水灾害的防治是弥补政府有限性和纠正公民自身失范行为的必然选择。应加强公民参与，打造主动化、制度化、组织化、多样化的公民参与方式，探寻城市型水灾害防治的最优路径。     

Risk Management and the Wisdom of Aldo Leopold

Human demands on nature have increased due to our burgeoning population. The applications of scientific knowledge to the development of increasingly powerful technologies and consumptive lifestyles by more and more people have created a modern category of human‐caused disaster—stealth disasters. Stealth disasters—such as agriculturally‐induced soil erosion and release of unprecedented amounts of greenhouse gases into Earth's atmosphere—tend to have protracted, unobvious onsets; do not necessarily have dramatic manifestations; and often do not attract public attention until they reach a stage approaching catastrophic consequences. At this late stage it is difficult or impossible to undo damage. Scientists tend to be among the first to understand the physical causes and notice the developments of stealth disasters and their risks and yet scientific knowledge is not enough to prevent or mitigate them. As we search for ways to deal with stealth disasters, the concept of “land health” assembled by the prominent conservationist and author, Aldo Leopold (1887–1948), can, in normative terms, provide an ecologically grounded example of nature in good condition toward which society can aim. Evidence of the reverse—symptoms of land illness—can provide a checklist for risk analysis and management that helps guide people away from harm‐causing attitudes and activities and toward beneficial outcomes. Leopold's criteria of land health motivated by a land ethic that incorporates the whole of nature may be applied at geographic scales ranging from local to global as a framework for contemporary risk management.