刘向灾异论旨趣探微——兼论刘向、刘歆灾异论旨趣的不同及其成因

灾异论是西汉经学家刘向的政治思想与历史思想之重要表述形式之一 ,这一理论内蕴的基本旨趣则是反对外戚势力 ,捍卫刘氏正统。刘向之子、经学家刘歆也好言灾异 ,但他的灾异论不反外戚 ,正统观念淡薄 ,言灾异而鲜与政治历史相结合 ,与其父的灾异论旨趣存在着明显的不同。文章还对出现这种不同的原因作了认真探讨     

家庭应对灾害的基本策略

当灾害发生的时候,家庭有各种各样的反应。作者从社会学的理论视角出发,采用实地调查和文献法研究了家庭对灾害警报的反应、灾中家庭避难和灾后家庭救助等问题。在此基础上作者提出了家庭减灾的基本策略。     

基于救助的社会保障体系--中国古代社会保障体系研究论纲

尽管社会保障这一名词出现在20世纪初,但作为一种制度形态,至少在我国的西周时期就已经产生。在从西周到清前期的漫长历史进程中,形成了一套完整的社会保障体系。这个体系有着不同于西方的、极其复杂的思想基础,政府、民间、宗教、宗族、基于业缘和地缘的自保互助组织等主体参与了保障事务,多元化的举办主体承担着全面的保障项目,并有一套严格而实用的管理监督制度、保证制度或诏令的实施效果。这个基于社会救助的保障体系至今仍然具有一定的借鉴意义。     

大国可持续发展的一个重大难题——从农业防灾减灾到环境、资源、生态与经济社会的协调发展

防灾减灾是大国控制环境污染和生态破坏加剧、减少灾害损失的重要途径 ;是大国合理开发、有效保护并持续利用资源的补救条件。积极防灾减灾要抓住三个基本环节 ,即建设林业生态体系、建立资源节约型经济体系和实施资源保护环境战略     

基于神经网络的洪水灾害预测方法

在工程应用的实际预测中,主要有两类不同性质的问题,一类是强结构化问题,另一类是弱结构化问题。而洪水灾害系统的预测问题,基本上属于弱结构化问题。人工神经网络是处理弱结构化问题的强有力的工具,人工神经网络所具有的一些特征表明了它适用于洪水灾害的预测。本文建立了用于洪水灾害预测的人工神经网络模型,阐述了其基本原理,并结合实例说明了其应用。     

洪水灾害风险分析的系统理论

从系统论的观点出发 ,提出了洪水灾害复杂大系统的概念 ,并以这一概念为基础 ,探讨了洪水灾害风险特征及洪水灾害风险评价的基本内容 ,提出并系统地阐述了以洪水危险性分析、承灾体易损性分析和洪水灾害灾情评估为核心内容的洪水灾害风险分析的系统理论     

Natural disaster preparedness in college students: Implications for institutions of higher learning

Objective: There is growing interest in the effectiveness of disaster preparedness at universities. Although several studies have examined student preparedness perceptions, a better understanding of factors that may influence actual preparedness is needed. Participants: Seven hundred sixty-five undergraduate and graduate students at a southeastern U.S. university completed an online survey in September 2013. Methods: Participants were administered an online survey that included questions regarding disaster preparedness and their experiences with disasters. Results: Students' disaster concern was more related to perceived preparedness over actual preparedness; disaster experience significantly predicted both actual and perceived preparedness. Perceived university preparedness was a significant predictor of disaster concern. Conclusion: The results suggest that perceived and actual preparedness are related but not entirely equivalent, which emphasizes the importance of differentiating the two constructs. Limitations of the current study and recommendations for future research are provided.     

环境挑战与对策

雾霾等大气污染、水危机、固体废弃物的资源环境污染问题,以及环境灾害和气候变化问题已经引起全社会的关注。日益凸显的生态环境问题与不可持续的生产和消费方式密切相关;解决环境问题的必由之路是新能源和可再生能源利用、系统角度的能源和资源节约、全生命周期的资源循环利用和创新理念与高新技术的应用。     

国产灾难电影发展阶段及研究热点

灾难电影一般指将重大的自然与人为灾难作为表现对象的电影。灾难电影作为西方电影界一种重要电影类型,以震撼的视觉冲击力与娱乐效应赢得极高的票房价值与观众群,具有极高的商业与艺术价值。国产灾难电影在我国可分三个发展阶段,近年呈较快发展态势,汶川地震以来已成为创作热点。《唐山大地震》引起了学界对国产灾难片的热切关注,其创作经验及研究状况需要梳理、总结与关注。     

Information Diffusion among Agents: Implications for Humanitarian Operations

The basis for this article is an information‐processing view of the UN's cluster approach. We use agent‐based modeling and simulations to show that clusters, if properly utilized, encourage better information flow and thus facilitate effective response to disasters. The article intends to turn the attention of the humanitarian community to the importance of sharing information and the role of cluster leads in facilitating humanitarian aid. Our results indicate that if cluster leads act as information hubs, information reaches its target faster, enabling a prompt humanitarian response. In addition, we show that information quality is critical for effective resource utilization—if cluster leads filter information, it moves faster. We also found evidence that the willingness to exchange information plays a larger role in transmitting information than that of an information hub, particularly during later stages of response operations.