突发性公共事件中政府应急能力的测定

前一时期,我国部分地区出现的传染性非典型肺炎的流行,引起了广大民众对政府应急能力的关注。文章在分析了公共突发性事件的特点及其政府在突发性公共事件中作用的基础上,建立了测定突发性公共事件中政府应急能力的指标体系,以便对政府应急能力进行评价。     

具有审美能力是报纸编辑工作的主导要求

在报纸的编辑工作中 ,作为一种社会精神产品生产过程中的一个中介环节 ,编辑是以出版和传播为目的的社会文化活动的执行者 ,编辑的基本劳动就是审阅、编修、收集稿件 ,具有审美能力是编辑工作的主导要求。而编辑的人格和感悟主要通过编辑的劳动表现出来 ,并可以使人明显地感受到编辑主体意识的审美创造力的高低。编辑要具有艺术细胞和审美能力 ,如发现美、理解美、协调美的能力 ,使读者在欣赏文章的同时感悟到美。     

A Review of Plant Specific PRAs

A large number of PRA studies have been completed for specific plants at specific sites. From these studies, taken individually or collectively, many significant insights have evolved into items important to risk and safety. The content of this paper is primarily based on the material contained in the EPRI funded review of five PRA studies: Big Rock Point, Zion, Limerick, Grand Gulf, and Arkansas Nuclear One. The first three were the utility sponsored studies publicly available at the time of project initiation while the other two were deemed representative of the NRC's RSSMAP and IREP programs respectively. The results of PRA studies are usually expressed in terms of core melt frequencies, radionuclide release frequencies, and frequencies of occurrence of different reactor accident consequences (e.g., early and latent fatalities) depending on the level of PRA. These subjects are prominently addressed in this paper. One of the results of a PRA study is identification of a relatively small number of accident sequences that represent the dominant contributors to core melt. An analysis of the salient features of the dominant accident sequences from eleven PRA's yielded a characterization of accident sequence categories discussed at some length. Impact of external events is discussed very briefly. Next to an explicit quantification of public risk or core melt frequency, the identification of specific safety concerns and the evaluation of possible solutions to implement risk management are probably the best recognized and most widely used applications of PRA. Several illustrative examples are briefly discussed. Human interactions are extremely important contributors to safety and reliability of the plants. A review of PRA studies concluded that it was necessary to account for five types of human interactions; some of which may mitigate while others may exacerbate an accident sequence.     

A review on strong convergence of weighted sums of random elements based on Wasserstein metrics

In a previous paper the authors proposed a simple method to extend results about almost sure convergence for weighted sums of real random variables to the case of Banach-valued random elements. The method arises from the extension of Skorohod's Representation Theorem for weakly convergent sequences due to Blackwell and Dubins, applied to the general framework of weakly equivalent tight sequences of probability measures. This provides a scheme which permits us to handle separately a problem that behaves like the Glivenko-Cantelli Theorem and a question on uniform integrability which generally is reduced to the real valued version of the general problem to be solved.

In this paper we prove that Wasserstein's metrics can play the same role as Skorohod's Representation Theorem in the preceding scheme. We also show that our method can be applied to obtain results with respect to various summability methods (Abel, Euler, …) even in the case in which the ‘weights’ are linear operators.     

Car Occupant Life Expectancy: Car Mass and Seat Belt Effects

Average human life expectancies for the U.S. resident population are calculated using tabulated population and survival rate data. These life expectancies are recalculated assuming elimination of various types of motor vehicle fatalities using Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) data. The differences between the original and recalculated values provide estimates of life expectancy reductions due to the motor vehicle fatalities. These estimates are combined with prior work relating the likelihood of an occupant fatality to car mass, so that reductions in life expectancy are determined as a function of car mass. The estimates of life expectancy reductions are also used to determine the effect of seat belt use on life expectancy. The estimates, which are based on data for 1978, assume that survival rates remain unchanged. Estimates of the changes in life expectancy associated with switching from a large (1800 kg) car to a small (900 kg) car, and switching from not using to using a seat belt are presented as functions of the age at which an individual makes the switch.     

How Unique Are the Price–Anderson Limitations on Nuclear Accident Liability?

In this paper we extend the work reported in prior studies. The conclusion drawn from the aggregate of those studies was that the limitation on liability imposed by the Price–Anderson Act for a catastrophic accident at a nuclear power plant ($560 million) is comparable to de facto limitations on recovery following catastrophic events in many other industries. The analysis in those reports was at a high level of abstraction, comparing almost exclusively the potential loss from high consequence accidents with the current assets of major firms in relevant industries. We found that potential loss exceeded assets.     

An Investigation of two Sequence-Comparison Statistics

This paper describes an investigation of two statistics which compare two ordered sequences of objects by providing a measure of the discordance when the sequences are slotted together. Configurations having zero discordance are described. Plausible null models for data are postulated, and an account is given of a simulation study which investigated the distribution of the statistics when these models were used in the analysis of physical logging data from two wells.     

Risk Prevention and Policy-Making in Automatic Systems

Accidents with automatic production systems are reported to be on the order of one in a hundred or thousand robot-years, while fatal accidents are found to occur one or two orders of magnitude less frequently. Traditions in occupational safety tend to seek for safety targets in terms of zero severe accidents for automatic systems. Decision-making requires a risk assessment balancing potential risk reduction measures and costs within the cultural environment of a production company. This paper presents a simplified procedure which acts as a decision tool. The procedure is based on a risk concept approaching prevention both in a deterministic and in a probabilistic manner. Eight accident scenarios are shown to represent the potential accident processes involving robot interactions with people. Seven prevention policies are shown to cover the accident scenarios in principle. An additional probabilistic approach may indicate which extra safety measures can be taken against what risk reduction and additional costs. The risk evaluation process aims at achieving a quantitative acceptable risk level. For that purpose, three risk evaluation methods are discussed with respect to reaching broad consensus on the safety targets.     

Learning from the Piper Alpha Accident: A Postmortem Analysis of Technical and Organizational Factors

The accident that occurred on board the offshore platform Piper Alpha in July 1988 killed 167 people and cost billions of dollars in property damage. It was caused by a massive fire, which was not the result of an unpredictable "act of God" but of an accumulation of errors and questionable decisions. Most of them were rooted in the organization, its structure, procedures, and culture. This paper analyzes the accident scenario using the risk analysis framework, determines which human decision and actions influenced the occurrence of the basic events, and then identifies the organizational roots of these decisions and actions. These organizational factors are generalizable to other industries and engineering systems. They include flaws in the design guidelines and design practices (e.g., tight physical couplings or insufficient redundancies), misguided priorities in the management of the tradeoff between productivity and safety, mistakes in the management of the personnel on board, and errors of judgment in the process by which financial pressures are applied on the production sector (i.e., the oil companies' definition of profit centers) resulting in deficiencies in inspection and maintenance operations. This analytical approach allows identification of risk management measures that go beyond the purely technical (e.g., add redundancies to a safety system) and also include improvements of management practices.     

创新大学生主导价值观教育的途径和方法

大学时期是对学生进行主导价值观教育的关键时期。对大学生进行主导价值观教育要体现时代特点,在确定大学生价值观教育原则的基础上,在“新颖”上做文章,要理论上推新,实践中创新。