Remedial Policies in Radiologically-Contaminated Forests: Environmental Consequences and Risk Assessment

As a result of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986, large forested areas in Europe were contaminated by radionuclides. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions not only economic costs, but also human and environmental risk assessment are desired. Forest remediation by organic layer removal, one of the most promising cleanup policies, is considered in this paper. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in forests. The FORESTPATH model^(1,2) is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the application of the remedial policy. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus.     

国企重组与国有产权价值维护

我国经济增长进入了结构性调整阶段,经济的结构性增长对要素流动性提出了更高要求,通过企业重组实现国有资产(股权)的流动是我国经济实现结构性增长的客观需要。为克服国有资产调整过程中国有资产价值的流失,必须改变国有资产管理的传统观念,主动向民营经济投资,积极探索国有资产经营的新路子,引进国有资产计量的使用价值(贴现)法,完善国有资产管理法规,规范国有资产(股权)交易行为。     

英汉科技翻译中主位推进模式的重构

主位推进模式在篇章的生产和理解过程中起着极其重要的作用。通过比较英汉科技语篇在主位推进模式上的共性与个性,探讨于建平提出的科技语篇中五种常见的主位推进模式在英汉科技翻译过程中的重构。     

逐步生物等效性t检验及在药物效能评价中的应用

在医学领域中,一种新药投产前,必须确定给人服用的安全剂量和它的毒性大小;有时又需要对两种药的药效进行比较。用均值等效二次单侧检验方法,并对其逐步推广,从而对处理组与对照组进行检验,确定是否等效。逐步等效性t检验也可用在确定仿制药的食用安全区间、比较药效等等。     

基督教的起源与世界史的重写

通过对基督教起源的文化考察,呈出了一种重写世界史的可能,提出了作为整体的地中海文化的概念。与中国文化、印度文化、玛雅文化完全不同的地中海文化是重新理解世界史的关键,一系列困惑历史学家的问题,都因为地中海文化概念的出现而得到豁然开朗的理解。比如,何以犹太教、基督教、伊斯兰教有很大的不同而又有一个相同的起源?因为它们同属于地中海文化。虽然同属于非西方文化,何以伊斯兰文化与中国文化、印度文化的差异如此之大?这种差异的实质是中国文化、印度文化与地中海文化的差异。按照以前的历史理论,统一世界史的形成是资本主义在西方产生又向全球扩张的结果,有了统一的地中海文化概念,就知道,全球化的冲动和向全球扩张一直是地中海文化的本质。文中提出了地中海文化内部东西方的对立、冲突、演化,并在对这种对立、冲突、演化的分析中论述了基督教的起源并呈出一种讲叙世界史的新方式。     

《生死疲劳》葛浩文译本文化负载词跨文化重构研究

《生死疲劳》葛浩文译本是中国当代文学英译的杰出代表.译者对原作物质文化、宗教文化、社会文化、语言文化和生态文化负载词的出神传递是译作在海外市场成功的关键.本文通过分析英译本文化负载词翻译实例,指出译者可通过借用法、直译法、注释法、释义法和增译法等翻译补偿和变通手段,在目标语语境中重构源语文化意象,使译作更好地贴近目标语读者,推动译作的海外有效传播.     

水利水电工程建设对移民社会系统的影响与重建

水利水电工程的建设可能会对移民的生产生活方式、社会交往与社会心理、基础设施与公共设施、社会关系网络、收入与支出、就业与生计模式等产生影响。随着社会的转型,移民发展观和安置理念的转变,移民政策的完善,安置模式的创新,工程建设对移民社会系统的影响逐步减小,但无法完全消除。为了实现移民社会系统的恢复与重建,需要优化安置点的选择,对移民实施外援和内源干预,提供就业服务和能力再造,加强资源倾斜与整合力度、加强移民制度建设,通过上述手段的合力共同促进移民社会系统的重建。     

Phase I trial design for drug combinations with Bayesian model averaging

Various statistical models have been proposed for two‐dimensional dose finding in drug‐combination trials. However, it is often a dilemma to decide which model to use when conducting a particular drug‐combination trial. We make a comprehensive comparison of four dose‐finding methods, and for fairness, we apply the same dose‐finding algorithm under the four model structures. Through extensive simulation studies, we compare the operating characteristics of these methods in various practical scenarios. The results show that different models may lead to different design properties and that no single model performs uniformly better in all scenarios. As a result, we propose using Bayesian model averaging to overcome the arbitrariness of the model specification and enhance the robustness of the design. We assign a discrete probability mass to each model as the prior model probability and then estimate the toxicity probabilities of combined doses in the Bayesian model averaging framework. During the trial, we adaptively allocated each new cohort of patients to the most appropriate dose combination by comparing the posterior estimates of the toxicity probabilities with the prespecified toxicity target. The simulation results demonstrate that the Bayesian model averaging approach is robust under various scenarios. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayesian adaptive dose‐escalation procedures for binary and continuous responses utilizing a gain function

One of the main aims of early phase clinical trials is to identify a safe dose with an indication of therapeutic benefit to administer to subjects in further studies. Ideally therefore, dose‐limiting events (DLEs) and responses indicative of efficacy should be considered in the dose‐escalation procedure. Several methods have been suggested for incorporating both DLEs and efficacy responses in early phase dose‐escalation trials. In this paper, we describe and evaluate a Bayesian adaptive approach based on one binary response (occurrence of a DLE) and one continuous response (a measure of potential efficacy) per subject. A logistic regression and a linear log‐log relationship are used respectively to model the binary DLEs and the continuous efficacy responses. A gain function concerning both the DLEs and efficacy responses is used to determine the dose to administer to the next cohort of subjects. Stopping rules are proposed to enable efficient decision making. Simulation results shows that our approach performs better than taking account of DLE responses alone. To assess the robustness of the approach, scenarios where the efficacy responses of subjects are generated from an E _max model, but modelled by the linear log–log model are also considered. This evaluation shows that the simpler log–log model leads to robust recommendations even under this model showing that it is a useful approximation to the difficulty in estimating E _max model. Additionally, we find comparable performance to alternative approaches using efficacy and safety for dose‐finding. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

无法还原的历史——“十七年文学”研究的历史症结

吴秀明认为,对"十七年文学"应作综合整体评价。它既是20世纪中国的"十七年文学",也是具有三千年悠久历史的中国的"十七年文学",同时也是与当时政治、经济、文化密切关联,并高度一体化了的"十七年文学"。张光芒认为,不能用硬性的价值尺度来评判"十七年文学",应该综合那个时代的文化生态,以"同情的理解",作为历史叙述的前提,尤其应对生长于时代夹缝中的富有文化启蒙意义的文学作品,作出价值重估。董之林则进一步指出了"十七年文学"研究的复杂性与艰难性,这是无法还原的历史,任何简单的评判都将失去意义,只有跳出预设的思维定式,借助理性的"知识考古",才能达到评判的意义重构。黄健则揭示了"十七年文学"与现代性重构的内在联系,从现代性重建的视角反思"十七年文学"的得失与应有的价值。