Forest Fire Risk Management and Public Participation in Changing Socioenvironmental Conditions: A Case Study in a Mediterranean Region

Under current conditions of accelerated socioenvironmental change in the Mediterranean forested landscapes, fire is one of the most critical and difficult risks to tackle within the region. This article summarizes the lessons learned from a project based on the participatory integration of qualitative local stakeholders' knowledge with expert GIS fire simulations carried out in the County of El Bages, Catalonia, Spain. First, in this article, a theoretical model--the forest fire circle--is presented in order to explain the reasons for the rise in the damage and frequency of forest fires in this Mediterranean area. Second, it describes the methodology developed and the stages followed during the project. Results show that: (1) the advocacy of old forest reactive management paradigm assumptions and practices based on uncontrolled forest succession can put vast wooded areas of the Mediterranean basin at critical risk; and (2) forest fire management approaches that ignore the crucial role of long-term prevention and local capacity building strategies have failed. In the final section, the content and the specific dimensions of the old reactive paradigm that has characterized forest fire risk management in Catalonia are discussed and contrasted with the possibly emerging preventative paradigm.     

Call My Bluff: Multiple Interpretations of an Organizational Process

This paper attempts to illustrate the value of interpreting organizational processes from a variety of perspectives. It demonstrates that this approach reflects the natural richness of organization and avoids the rather blinkered search for single-paradigm explanations. It does not seek to offer the answer, but rather some possible insights. By combining both actor and researcher frames, it sheds light upon a particular process of social interaction within an organization. Both the context, an NHS trust hospital, and the content, a significant change scenario, brings richness and relevance to the debate.
The paper outlines the macro and micro context before focusing on the interpretative methodological approach. The research involved collecting and analysing over thirty hours of taped, semi-structured interview discourse with senior and middle management and some junior staff. After describing the change initiative, an attempt at multi-skilling and the response of recipient actors to the proposals, the paper outlines three readings which seek to explain the events that occurred. The reader is invited to play the game 'Call my Bluff' and to choose the scenario that represents the most plausible explanation. The three interpretative frames employed are a managerial, a cultural and a political perspective. The paper concludes by raising some important issues in research, organizational change and the NHS.     

动态车辆路径问题排队模型分析

分析了一类动态车辆路径问题,其中顾客需求以泊松流形式出现,现场服务时间服从一般分布.提出解决该问题的两种策略:顺序服务策略和中点改进策略,利用排队论、几何概率论等领域的知识分别求出了这两种策略的系统时间,并通过仿真数据实验验证了这两种策略的有效性.     

面向CRM的动态质量体系管理数据的模型

以ISO9000质量管理体系为背景,本文详细地分析了企业质量体系管理的信息层次结构与流程,针对质量体系的制定、改版以及质量持续改进,研究了质量体系管理对数据模型的复用性、可引用性与可回朔性的要求,讨论了现有质量管理信息系统的局限性,提出了动态质量体系管理数据模型,给出了模型的结构和功能,总结了所提模型的特点。最后,给出了实例分析。     

“鲁迅形象”建构的文化语境、过程与反思

"鲁迅形象"是中国现代文化史上典型的现代知识分子的形象符码,其生成过程与现代中国的动态语境密切相关,深刻地勾联了阐释者的文化心理和思维形态。"鲁迅形象"是由自塑和他塑合力而构成的公共形象,对其进行文化学意义上的考察可为探索现代中国发展的社会史和现代知识分子的心灵史提供理论资源。     

唯物辩证法视阈下新时代社会主要矛盾变化探析

唯物辩证法是理解新时代社会主要矛盾变化的哲学前提。在唯物辩证法视阈下,党的十九大报告提出的社会主要矛盾变化是主观辩证法与客观辩证法互动的历史性结论,内涵着唯物辩证法意蕴,是新时代标志、丰富内涵与创新性工作要求的有机统一。在时代价值维度,社会主要矛盾变化标志着中国特色社会主义发展的阶段性质变、中国社会主义现代化战略目标的转变、中国特色社会主义走向世界舞台中心的国际地位变化;在思想内涵维度,新时代社会主要矛盾变化集中体现为矛盾条件的客观性变化、矛盾因素的共时性变化、矛盾关系的根本性变化,需要辩证性的理解;在工作方法维度,社会主要矛盾变化对工作实践提出了新的发展理念、新的问题关切以及弘扬创新工作精神等创新性要求。     

出口二元边际、行业异质性与劳动生产率

基于行业异质性视角,文章主要考察出口二元边际对劳动生产率的影响.利用UN Comtrade数据库,采用HK指数法测度中国出口深度边际和出口广度边际,发现中国出口产品种类基本覆盖了世界全部种类的90％.进一步地,借助聚类分析方法综合多种因素区分行业劳动技能异质性,出口二元边际与劳动生产率关系的实证结果显示:总体上出口深度边际显著推动劳动生产率提高,出口广度边际对劳动生产率产生抑制作用.更为重要的是,出口深度边际对劳动生产率的促进作用仅存在于高技能行业,受限于行业产品技术含量和劳动技能水平等,低技能和中等技能行业出口深度边际出现贫困化增长现象.出口种类扩张的生产率损失超过出口溢出效应的生产率收益,出口广度边际对高中低技能行业劳动生产率具有不同程度的负向影响.     

兰州市洒水治污政策变迁路径与动力研究——基于定性比较分析法

以兰州市洒水车治污政策为研究案例,应用清晰集定性比较分析法（Crisp-set QCA）研究地方政府具体环保政策的变迁问题。分析发现,自上而下的政治压力、公众舆论压力、媒介压力、专家压力以及领导变更等五类8个解释变量可以作为案例政策变迁的驱动因素,其中,中央媒介压力是政策变迁的必要条件。按照不同的驱动因素组合,兰州洒水治污政策变迁有4种演进路径,其中,最短路径是“中央媒介压力且网络媒介压力”与“领导批示且中央媒介压力”。此外,在本政策案例中,领导批示不但没有促成政策变迁,甚至不构成变迁的必要条件。无论是“地方领导留言板”,还是“门户网站留言板”均非政策变迁的充分或必要条件,因此未能彰显公民参与在政策问题建构中的权力扩大,公众并没有实质拥有建构权,也未能成为建构主体,仅依赖互动平台的构建是无法打破原有的政策问题建构秩序的,因而也不能促使政策变迁彰显民意。     

Who killed change management?

A story is told here of an investigation into change management's apparent death, provoked by the dubious business novel Who Killed Change [Blanchard, K., J. Britt, P. Zigarmi, and J. Hoekstra. 2009. Who Killed Change? Solving the Mystery of Leading People Through Change. London: Harper Collins Publishers]. The story is told over eight chapters inviting you to investigate competing explanations for the death of change management using the structure of the story arc: stasis, trigger, quest, surprise, critical choice, climax, reversal and resolution. An annoying voice (sometimes interior monologue and at other times dialogue) of another reader keen to inform and frame your understanding of the status of change management remains ever present. The case is solved with the story's resolution providing insights into advantages of investigating over literature reviewing, the problematic/masculine nature of murder metaphors, the academic potential of story arcs and the mystery which characterises organizational change.     

商誉和价格影响需求的易逝品动态定价与广告决策

研究需求受价格和商誉共同影响下易逝品动态定价与广告投资策略的联合决策问题。在初始库存确定的情形下,在某待定销售周期内,企业通过投入广告提升自身商誉从而拓宽市场,以企业利润最大化为目标,建立联合最优动态定价及广告投资策略模型。应用庞特里亚金极大值原理,求得不同系统参数下最优动态定价和广告投资策略及最优的销售周期。通过数值算例验证方法的有效性,结合参数灵敏度分析检验系统参数对最优策略的影响并给出相应管理意义。