美国、日本、中国内地及香港特区汇制趋势分析

汇率制度的制定和实施已经直接影响到一个国家的经济发展。经过几十年研究,人们已经认识到没有哪一种汇率制度能够适应所有国家和所有时期,汇率制度由经济基础决定并反作用于经济社会。对照美国、日本、中国内地及香港特区的汇率制度现状及其对经济的影响,可以推断,美元、日元和人民币在未来应当以定期调整的均衡汇率作为中心汇率,实行汇率目标区制度;香港特区作为中国不可分割的一部分,港币最终将进入人民币区域。     

建筑业寻租行为的博弈分析

本文运用博弈论方法分析了建筑业寻租行为的现象和产生的原因,通过对委托方、代理方、建筑业项目承建单位三者之间的纳什均衡模型的分析,给出了建筑业寻租行为的静态均衡和均衡状态下委托人的动态优化选择。分析可见我国建筑市场的现实情况并不处于纳什均衡状态,彻底消灭寻租行为是不现实的,可以通过完善对权力的制衡和监督机制、引进市场监督和强化社会稽查机制、加强市场透明度以降低信息不对称程度等措施减少寻租行为、规范建筑业市场。     

民生工程建设综合评价研究

民生问题是构建和谐社会的关键,也是政府工作的基本着力点。在前期研究构建的指标体系的基础上,运用拉开档次评价法和逐层序关系分析法对我国31个省市自2006－2012年的民生工程建设状况进行了动态综合评价,并用时序几何平均算子（TOWGA）进行了二次加权得到综合评价的总排名,最后对各地区的排序变化进行归纳、分析。     

Dynamic factor structure of team performances in Liga MX

Team performance of the Mexican Football League (Liga MX), measured as the percentage of the total points obtained during each short tournament, is analyzed using Dynamic Factor Models (DFMs). The estimation of the common components is carried out with Principal Components and the stochastic nature of the DFM is studied through Panel Analysis of Non-stationarity in Idiosyncratic and Common Components. The results reveal that there are two common factors, one being possibly non-stationary. These factors show an interesting dynamic behavior in the league and allow to split the teams into two groups, namely, top competitors and emerging or relegated teams. Some discussion is given in this direction.     

罗光生命哲学视野中的“动态生命观”

作为台湾新士林哲学的领军人物罗光先生，在其生命哲学体系中，结合天主教哲学中的“存有”范畴和儒家传统哲学中的“生生之道”，体贴新的生命观，即生命是动态的流动，认为生命的意义就在变易，生命的过程就是生命本体不断生成、变化的过程。     

Analyzing the Homeland Security of the U.S.-Mexico Border

We develop a mathematical optimization model at the intersection of homeland security and immigration, that chooses various immigration enforcement decision variables to minimize the probability that a terrorist can successfully enter the United States across the U.S.-Mexico border. Included are a discrete choice model for the probability that a potential alien crosser will attempt to cross the U.S.-Mexico border in terms of the likelihood of success and the U.S. wage for illegal workers, a spatial model that calculates the apprehension probability as a function of the number of crossers, the number of border patrol agents, and the amount of surveillance technology on the border, a queueing model that determines the probability that an apprehended alien will be detained and removed as a function of the number of detention beds, and an equilibrium model for the illegal wage that balances the supply and demand for work and incorporates the impact of worksite enforcement. Our main result is that detention beds are the current system bottleneck (even after the large reduction in detention residence times recently achieved by expedited removal), and increases in border patrol staffing or surveillance technology would not provide any improvements without a large increase in detention capacity. Our model also predicts that surveillance technology is more cost effective than border patrol agents, which in turn are more cost effective than worksite inspectors, but these results are not robust due to the difficulty of predicting human behavior from existing data. Overall, the probability that a terrorist can successfully enter the United States is very high, and it would be extremely costly and difficult to significantly reduce it. We also investigate the alternative objective function of minimizing the flow of illegal aliens across the U.S.-Mexico border, and obtain qualitatively similar results.     

45钢动态摩擦中Kaiser效应的分析

摩擦过程中是否存在Kaiser效应对于应用声发射技术检测动态摩擦过程是一个非常重要和基础的问题。为此，进行了大量的实验研究，并对这些数据进行了整理和分析。结果表明：动态摩擦中不存在Kaiser效应。     

论《潮水集》跨文体写作的艺术张力

散文集《潮水集》的跨文体写作主要表现在两个方面：一是文史交融，作者建构了一个三维情感世界，使作品在文学与历史中穿行；二是均衡之美，表现在“叙事一抒情一叙事”和“议论一抒情一议论”两个创作模式上。     

农村社会生态理性的社会学研究

本文从理性视角构筑认识论框架,在此框架内对环境价值作出评估。在肯定理性多样化并存的前提下,把两个最具争议的理性——经济理性与生态理性并列齐观,以阐明二者在环境问题上的分歧,并从中揭示出中心价值对边陲价值的侵犯,并以政治形式将其合法化、正当化的过程。如何实现经济理性与生态理性的和解,宏观层面需要工业文明向生态文明的转变,微观层面需要从＂以人为中心＂的价值观向＂人与环境和谐共处＂的价值观转向,在这一转向过程中经济理性与生态理性相平衡的价值观教育是很有必要的。     

Effects of Alternative Policies on Income Redistribution: Evidence from Brazil

Despite recent successes, Brazilian income (cash) transfer policies remain controversial, and alternative approaches to income redistribution are being actively considered. This article contributes to this debate, analysing the effects of several alternative policies for income redistribution in the Brazilian economy using a computable general equilibrium model. Simulations were conducted consistent with the following policies: direct transfer of income, reduction of taxes, and incentives to agricultural exports. The results suggest that transfer of income is the most effective in promoting redistribution of income, with a positive impact on the level of welfare of the poorest households.