国家财政对农业投入的分析与预测——基于状态空间模型的实证分析

国家财政对农业的投入是影响农业发展的重要因素。收集了建国以来国家财政对农业投入的数据,分析构造出状态空间模型,应用卡尔曼滤波估计出状态向量,挖掘出隐藏在数据内部的变化特征,分析国家财政对农业投入的实际情况,并对未来几年的农业投入进行预测。     

Dynamic factor models

Summary Factor models can cope with many variables without running into scarce degrees of freedom problems often faced in a regression-based analysis. In this article we review recent work on dynamic factor models that have become popular in macroeconomic policy analysis and forecasting. By means of an empirical application we demonstrate that these models turn out to be usefu in investigating macroeconomic problems.     

A flexible semiparametric transformation model for survival data

I suggest an extension of the semiparametric transformation model that specifies a time-varying regression structure for the transformation, and thus allows time-varying structure in the data. Special cases include a stratified version of the usual semiparametric transformation model. The model can be thought of as specifying a first order Taylor expansion of a completely flexible baseline. Large sample properties are derived and estimators of the asymptotic variances of the regression coefficients are given. The method is illustrated by a worked example and a small simulation study. A goodness of fit procedure for testing if the regression effects lead to a satisfactory fit is also suggested.     

A unified approach to regression analysis under double-sampling designs

We propose a unified approach to the estimation of regression parameters under double-sampling designs, in which a primary sample consisting of data on the rough or proxy measures for the response and/or explanatory variables as well as a validation subsample consisting of data on the exact measurements are available. We assume that the validation sample is a simple random subsample from the primary sample. Our proposal utilizes a specific parametric model to extract the partial information contained in the primary sample. The resulting estimator is consistent even if such a model is misspecified, and it achieves higher asymptotic efficiency than the estimator based only on the validation data. Specific cases are discussed to illustrate the application of the estimator proposed.     

Bayes linear analysis for graphical models: The geometric approach to local computation and interpretive graphics

This paper concerns the geometric treatment of graphical models using Bayes linear methods. We introduce Bayes linear separation as a second order generalised conditional independence relation, and Bayes linear graphical models are constructed using this property. A system of interpretive and diagnostic shadings are given, which summarise the analysis over the associated moral graph. Principles of local computation are outlined for the graphical models, and an algorithm for implementing such computation over the junction tree is described. The approach is illustrated with two examples. The first concerns sales forecasting using a multivariate dynamic linear model. The second concerns inference for the error variance matrices of the model for sales, and illustrates the generality of our geometric approach by treating the matrices directly as random objects. The examples are implemented using a freely available set of object-oriented programming tools for Bayes linear local computation and graphical diagnostic display.     

Nonparametric Tests for Stratum Effects in the Cox Model

Thispaper considers the stratified proportional hazards model witha focus on the assessment of stratum effects. The assessmentof such effects is often of interest, for example, in clinicaltrials. In this case, two relevant tests are the test of stratuminteraction with covariates and the test of stratum interactionwith baseline hazard functions. For the test of stratum interactionwith covariates, one can use the partial likelihood method (Kalbfleischand Prentice, 1980; Lin, 1994). For the test of stratum interactionwith baseline hazard functions, however, there seems to be noformal test available. We consider this problem and propose aclass of nonparametric tests. The asymptotic distributions ofthe tests are derived using the martingale theory. The proposedtests can also be used for survival comparisons which need tobe adjusted for covariate effects. The method is illustratedwith data from a lung cancer clinical trial.     

Two ways of modelling overdispersion in non-normal data

For non-normal data assumed to have distributions, such as the Poisson distribution, which have an a priori dispersion parameter, there are two ways of modelling overdispersion: by a quasi-likelihood approach or with a random-effect model. The two approaches yield different variance functions for the response, which may be distinguishable if adequate data are available. The epilepsy data of Thall and Vail and the fabric data of Bissell are used to exemplify the ideas.     

Practical Maximum Pseudolikelihood for Spatial Point Patterns(with Discussion)

This paper describes a technique for computing approximate maximum pseudolikelihood estimates of the parameters of a spatial point process. The method is an extension of Berman & Turner's (1992) device for maximizing the likelihoods of inhomogeneous spatial Poisson processes. For a very wide class of spatial point process models the likelihood is intractable, while the pseudolikelihood is known explicitly, except for the computation of an integral over the sampling region. Approximation of this integral by a finite sum in a special way yields an approximate pseudolikelihood which is formally equivalent to the (weighted) likelihood of a loglinear model with Poisson responses. This can be maximized using standard statistical software for generalized linear or additive models, provided the conditional intensity of the process takes an 'exponential family' form. Using this approach a wide variety of spatial point process models of Gibbs type can be fitted rapidly, incorporating spatial trends, interaction between points, dependence on spatial covariates, and mark information.     

成电8010分布式計算机之特点

成电8010是基于单板机开发成功的分布式微机过程控制系统。该系统的性能特点是任务的动态调度、机间合作、优美降级和资源分享等。这些特点使其应用非常成功。本文就是对这些性能特点作相应的分析和介绍。     

选择价值工程改进对象的动态排序模型

从一个复杂系统中,合理地选择重点改进对象,是有效开展价值工程活动的基础。本文在分析最合适区域法存在的问题的基础上,提出选择价值工程改进对象的动态排序模型。