基于4PL的跨境电商物流联盟多方行为博弈研究

在对我国4PL跨境电商物流联盟运作模式分析的基础上,针对基于跨境电商平台主导的跨境电商物流联盟,运用演化博弈理论,分析联盟内跨境电商平台、物流服务商和商家之间的动态博弈过程,构建三者在不同策略下的演化博弈模型,并结合系统动力学对三方策略选择的动态博弈进行仿真分析。结果表明,在联盟运作过程中:(1)各方参与者最终会达到"平台监管、物流企业努力、商家参与"的均衡状态,并且商家参与对联盟稳定运作具有重要作用。平台监管对物流企业策略选择具有直接影响,其应制定科学的惩罚力度及补偿裁定,以提升物流服务质量并保障商家权益;(2)联盟各方参与者对其相关外生变量具有较高的敏感性,但其最终策略受多个变量的共同作用,为此平台需发挥其主导作用,采取多种措施激发物流企业及商家的积极性。     

季节交替下农业废弃物第三方治理稳定性研究

农业废弃物第三方治理是缓解农业面源污染、提升资源再利用率的重要途径,该模式的稳定运营依赖于农业生产者和第三方治理企业的持续参与。受季节交替影响是农业生产的显著特征,构建季节交替下农业废弃物第三方治理演化博弈模型,分析双方参与策略选择,以江西××环保工程有限公司的两个农业废弃物集中处理项目为例进行案例分析。研究表明,农业废弃物第三方治理稳定性受季节交替影响而存在两种周期性变化规律,但具体表现出何种变化规律取决于农业生产者合规处理废弃物与违规处理废弃物成本之间的大小关系;提高农业生产者违规处理废弃物成本、降低双方的参与成本均能有效提升第三方治理的稳定性。建议政府根据周期性变化规律制定针对性的短期政策并与长期政策相结合,利用组合政策推动农业废弃物第三方治理的长期稳定运营。     

新型冠状病毒肺炎初期传播规模的系统动力学模型估计方法及评价

目的/意义新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情是新中国成立以来传播速度快、感染范围广、防控难度大的一次重大突发公共卫生事件。疫情暴发后,我国各级政府采取积极防控措施,有效控制了疫情传播。面对新冠肺炎传染性强、无症状感染者多、罹患重症致死率高的特点,如何在疫情暴发早期科学判定病毒传播路径及感染规模非常重要。设计/方法利用甘肃省首次发现确诊病例以来最初8天的公开通报数据,构建了基于系统动力学的新冠肺炎患者变动分析模型,对甘肃省首例确诊患者出现后连续20天内的确诊患者数量变动进行合理估计和预判,以期为相关防控措施实施提供参考。结论/发现通过分析比较,该分析模型对疫情暴发初期的传播规律具有较强的适用性,对相关国家或存在感染的地区估计传播规模有较高的参考价值。     

情绪与身体健康的非线性动力关系

情绪可以通过多种途径影响人的身体健康,但情绪与身体健康之间不是简单的线性关系:即积极情绪都有利于身体健康,消极情绪都不利于身体健康。情绪与身体健康之间是一种非线性动力关系:即在一定范围内,情绪(既包括积极情绪也包括消极情绪)有利于身体健康;而超出所限定的范围之外,则不利于身体健康。     

基于知识转移视角的产学研合作模式研究

目的/意义当前,产学研合作知识转移已经引起业界的广泛关注,其中信任在知识转移过程中也发挥着关键的推动作用,然而当前鲜有研究重视信任的动态演化规律。设计/方法根据信任视角,在将信任划分为计算型信任、关系质量型信任以及制度型信任的基础上,构建了信任影响产学研合作知识转移的因果关系模型和系统流图。进一步地,采用Vensim PLE软件对所构建的系统动力学模型进行了模型检验与灵敏度分析。结论/发现研究表明,计算型信任、关系质量型信任以及制度型信任均有利于产学研合作知识转移,且三者之间存在互补效应。研究结果可以为产学研合作主体提升信任,促进知识转移提供建议参考。     

An Empirical Agent‐Based Model to Simulate the Adoption of Water Reuse Using the Social Amplification of Risk Framework

Water reuse can serve as a sustainable alternative water source for urban areas. However, the successful implementation of large‐scale water reuse projects depends on community acceptance. Because of the negative perceptions that are traditionally associated with reclaimed water, water reuse is often not considered in the development of urban water management plans. This study develops a simulation model for understanding community opinion dynamics surrounding the issue of water reuse, and how individual perceptions evolve within that context, which can help in the planning and decision‐making process. Based on the social amplification of risk framework, our agent‐based model simulates consumer perceptions, discussion patterns, and their adoption or rejection of water reuse. The model is based on the “risk publics” model, an empirical approach that uses the concept of belief clusters to explain the adoption of new technology. Each household is represented as an agent, and parameters that define their behavior and attributes are defined from survey data. Community‐level parameters—including social groups, relationships, and communication variables, also from survey data—are encoded to simulate the social processes that influence community opinion. The model demonstrates its capabilities to simulate opinion dynamics and consumer adoption of water reuse. In addition, based on empirical data, the model is applied to investigate water reuse behavior in different regions of the United States. Importantly, our results reveal that public opinion dynamics emerge differently based on membership in opinion clusters, frequency of discussion, and the structure of social networks.     

The outside and family therapy: A perspective from the relational thinking of Gilles Deleuze

This article was inspired by a reflection on what unfolded with the COVID-19 virus, especially how it brought to light the interconnectedness of individual and collective well-being. This calls for a reassessment of the family therapy approach, which has traditionally focussed on the internal dynamics of the family to explain problems faced by individuals inside the family system without taking into account social, political and historical aspects. This approach, which is referred to in the article as ‘familialism,’ is challenged using the relational philosophy put forward by Gilles Deleuze and Félix Guattari, and a fresh viewpoint is also given from the concept of the ‘outside.’ This outside perspective seeks to prevent the family system from closing in on itself, allowing for the creation of open systems. By doing so, it is argued, it is possible to incorporate different elements of the social, political and historical order in therapeutic practice and prevent underestimating the complexity of the human experience.     

Scrutinising the interplay between governance and resilience in supply chain management: A systems thinking framework

Supply chain disruptions recurrently challenge end-to-end operations owing to the ambiguous understanding of the role of governance in impacting supply network resilience. This paper scrutinises the relevant literature to understand the plethora of interpretations in supply chain governance and resilience while further providing a new perspective on the representation of the interplay between governance and resilience in supply chains. In this regard, the Systems Thinking lens is adopted to pull together the typologies and constructs of supply chain governance and resilience from the literature. Methodologically, System Dynamics modelling principles are leveraged to capture the underpinning structural interdependencies in a causal loop diagram. The study reveals that endogenous and exogenous supply chain governance processes and mechanisms support the intrinsic and extrinsic resilience in networks. Overall, this research contributes to the supply chain risk management domain by synthesising the interplay between governance and resilience, identifying pertinent typologies, and articulating research propositions that can inform decision-making at policy and management levels.     

The Impact of Trade on Intra‐Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity

This paper develops a dynamic industry model with heterogeneous firms to analyze the intra‐industry effects of international trade. The model shows how the exposure to trade will induce only the more productive firms to enter the export market (while some less productive firms continue to produce only for the domestic market) and will simultaneously force the least productive firms to exit. It then shows how further increases in the industry's exposure to trade lead to additional inter‐firm reallocations towards more productive firms. The paper also shows how the aggregate industry productivity growth generated by the reallocations contributes to a welfare gain, thus highlighting a benefit from trade that has not been examined theoretically before. The paper adapts Hopenhayn's (1992a) dynamic industry model to monopolistic competition in a general equilibrium setting. In so doing, the paper provides an extension of Krugman's (1980) trade model that incorporates firm level productivity differences. Firms with different productivity levels coexist in an industry because each firm faces initial uncertainty concerning its productivity before making an irreversible investment to enter the industry. Entry into the export market is also costly, but the firm's decision to export occurs after it gains knowledge of its productivity.     

Noisy Stochastic Games

This paper establishes existence of a stationary Markov perfect equilibrium in general stochastic games with noise—a component of the state that is nonatomically distributed and not directly affected by the previous period's state and actions. Noise may be simply a payoff‐irrelevant public randomization device, delivering known results on the existence of correlated equilibrium as a special case. More generally, noise can take the form of shocks that enter into players' stage payoffs and the transition probability on states. The existence result is applied to a model of industry dynamics and to a model of dynamic electoral competition.