阶梯电价背景下基于贝叶斯分析的用电需求模型

阶梯电价不仅引导居民合理、节约用电,而且减少了用户之间的电价交叉补贴,但在实际应用中存在多种不确定因素,如居民用电需求变动以及各档电量的确定范围等。针对居民用电需求变动,本文提出了基于贝叶斯估计方法的阶梯电价用电需求模型。首先提出基于阶梯电价的需求函数;其次对阶梯电价用电需求函数进行贝叶斯分析,分别从统计模型、似然函数、后验分布以及加速收敛四个方面分析;最后,对1250个用户的用电数据进行估计,将影响因素带入模型得出各用户的用电需求,确定了贝叶斯估计对用电需求模型构建的适用性。     

初次收入分配对我国居民旅游消费影响研究

文章选取初次分配工资分配率、城镇居民基尼系数、各收入阶层旅游消费占比作为分析指标，经分析研究所得结论为：低、中收入阶层旅游消费占比与分配率负相关，分配率所代表的初次收入分配总量性影响对中收入阶层旅游消费影响较大，中、高收入阶层旅游消费占比都与城镇居民基尼系数正相关，其中城镇居民基尼系数代表的初次收入分配结构性影响对高收入阶层旅游消费影响较大；并针对各阶层的特殊性对各收入阶层旅游消费发展提出相应政策建议.     

Completing the Circuit: Routine,Reflection, and Ethical Consumption

Efforts to explain why some people incorporate ethical concerns into everyday shopping for food and household goods, while many do not, have so far left significant variation in “ethical consumption” unexplained. Seeking to move beyond explanations that rely mainly on differences in consumers' social class, gender, and political engagement, I draw on concepts associated with “practice theory” to argue that ethical consumption is closely tied to people's willingness and ability to spend time, while shopping, on distinct activities associated with breaking old routines and establishing new ones. The central insight of practice theory is that most consumption is the product of unconscious routine. And it is precisely because consciously departing from routine is, according to my study, a fundamentally time‐consuming process, that lack of time emerges as a crucial obstacle to translating abstract ethical concerns into concrete action as a consumer.     

Curation: a theoretical treatment

Curation is a key mechanism of sociality in a digital era. With an abundance of information, sifting, sorting, selecting, hiding, and standing out become laborious tasks. While researchers have diligently documented people’s curatorial strategies, digital curation remains undertheorized in its own right. I therefore theorize digital curation by disentangling productive curation from consumptive curation, addressing how people curate content that they share, and that which they consume. I embed these agentic curatorial practices within structural bounds, both social and technological. In doing so, I offer a basic theoretical model that captures a dynamic relationship between individual curators, their social networks, and technological design.     

企业推进消费文明的路径探索

应对＂消费—生态＂悖论,缓解生态危机,促进消费文明走向生态文明,企业应提高企业家和员工的生态道德素质,加强企业伦理建设,从而牢固树立生态消费理念,践行＂合度＂、＂合宜＂、＂合道＂的客观要求,实现经济合理性、生态合理性、伦理合理性的价值诉求,遵循环境友好,可持续发展,以人为本等基本原则,实施绿色、低碳的生态化模式,推进消费文明的发展。     

Ethical living: relinking ethics and consumption through care in Chile and Brazil

Mainstream conceptualizations of ‘ethical consumption’ equate the notion with conscious, individual, market‐mediated choices motivated by ethical or political aims that transcend ordinary concerns. Drawing on recent sociology and anthropology of consumption literature on the links between ordinary ethics and ethical consumption, this article discusses some of the limitations of this conceptualization. Using data from 32 focus groups conducted in Chile and Brazil, we propose a conceptualization of ethical consumption that does not centre on individual, market‐mediated choices but understands it at the level of practical outcomes, which we refer to as different forms of ‘ethical living’. To do that, we argue, we need to depart from the deontological understanding of ethics that underpins mainstream approaches to ethical consumption and adopt a more consequentialist view focusing on ethical outcomes. We develop these points through describing one particular ordinary moral regime that seemed to be predominant in participants’ accounts of ethics and consumption in both Chile and Brazil: one that links consumption and ethics through care. We show that the moral regime of care leads to ‘ethical outcomes’, such as energy saving or limiting overconsumption, yet contrary to the mainstream view of ethical consumption emphasizing politicized choice expressed through markets, these result from following ordinary ethics, often through routines of practices.     

解码“中国经济增长”

消费是人类经济增长最初也是最终的目的，单纯为了经济增长速度、为了增加就业、为了出口创汇等，可能脱离经济发展的消费目的，未必有利于真正的经济增长。新时期中国理想的经济增长必须考虑以下六个制约因素，即居民增长的消费需求、资源的供给、环境容量、国际竞争力、科技创新和制度。关键是突出消费作为增长的目的，抛弃狭隘的速度思维，将环境保护放在首位，以分配公平为前提，建立有责任约束的经济增长机制。     

家电下乡政策的消费效应评估——基于全国221个村庄的4年跟踪调查

以全国221个村庄所获得的4年调查数据作为研究基础,对"家电下乡"政策的消费效应予以评估和分析。调查表明,家电下乡政策消费效应的最大特征是农民消费需求的释放,其中包括全国消费总额的上升,户均消费额增幅达到8成,全国各地消费总量和户均消费数量的增加。但家电下乡政策的消费效应在实践中也遇到了持续性疲软的难题,如农民收入的限制作用,农民购买下乡产品比重偏低,政府补贴额和补贴程序不足,政策宣传和解说不到位。为了使家电下乡政策的消费效应持续起效,必须不断完善政策,使家电下乡政策的实惠真正落实到农民身上。     

Jamming the jamming: Brazilian protests as an illustration of a new politics of consumption

ABSTRACT

Based on a reflexive and critical analysis of the citizen protests that pervaded Brazilian cities in June 2013, in this article we argue that a significant part of the demonstrators’ dissatisfaction took the form of a new politics of consumption with particular characteristics, including the subversion of the culture jamming concept by citizens and by corporations. Our main contribution is to provide the Brazilian protests as an illustration of a new politics of consumption, where ‘citizen-consumers’ direct their dissatisfaction toward the government using tactics that, historically, were considered counter-hegemonic and directed to the market, as is the case of the culture jamming. Likewise, the corporations present themselves as partners of those citizen-consumers. Mobilizing a dialectical reasoning, our results invite readers to reflect on the ambiguities among politics of consumption and culture jamming, and the challenges they bring to organizations and society.     

Gaps in social protection for health care and long‐term care in Europe: Are the elderly faced with financial ruin?

While public expenditure on health care and long‐term care (LTC) has been monitored for many years in European countries, far less attention has been paid to the financial consequences for older people of private out‐of‐pocket (OOP) expenditure necessary to access such care. Employing representative cross‐sectional data on the elderly populations of 11 European countries in 2004 from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we find that OOP payments for health care and LTC are very common among the elderly across European countries and such expenditures impact significantly on disposable income: up to 95 per cent of the elderly make OOP payments for health care and 5 per cent for LTC, resulting in income reductions of between 5 and 10 per cent, respectively. Failure to prevent financial ruin, as a consequence of excessive OOP payments, is evident in 0.7 per cent of elderly households utilizing health care and 0.5 per cent of elderly households utilizing LTC. Those particularly concerned are the poor, women and the very old.