Residual analysis for spatial point processes (with discussion)

Summary.  We define residuals for point process models fitted to spatial point pattern data, and we propose diagnostic plots based on them. The residuals apply to any point process model that has a conditional intensity; the model may exhibit spatial heterogeneity, interpoint interaction and dependence on spatial covariates. Some existing ad hoc methods for model checking (quadrat counts, scan statistic, kernel smoothed intensity and Berman's diagnostic) are recovered as special cases. Diagnostic tools are developed systematically, by using an analogy between our spatial residuals and the usual residuals for (non-spatial) generalized linear models. The conditional intensity λ plays the role of the mean response. This makes it possible to adapt existing knowledge about model validation for generalized linear models to the spatial point process context, giving recommendations for diagnostic plots. A plot of smoothed residuals against spatial location, or against a spatial covariate, is effective in diagnosing spatial trend or co-variate effects. Q – Q -plots of the residuals are effective in diagnosing interpoint interaction.     

对运动竞技中运动心理学的再认识

文章通过分析运动员身体能量和心理能量的关系 ,认为主客观都要求运动员赛前将心理能量和身体能量调控到相对较高点 ,以发挥其最大的竞争力。由于心理技能的训练和发展有赖于各心理技能间的相互发展 ,因此 ,对运动员必须从心理能量有效调控关联的技能训练着手进行心理技能训练     

建筑节能激励政策的非对称博弈分析

本文探讨了建筑节能领域中政府与房地产商群体之间的非对称博弈问题,分析了该博弈所具有的模仿者动态模型、斯坦克尔伯格模型的特点,并构造了两者关于建筑节能激励政策的非对称博弈模型,最后对双方分别提出了博弈策略建议。     

关于舟山外语复合型人才的开发与培养

在对舟山市外向型企业人才调研的基础上,就我国加入WTO后,根据舟山实际情况,探讨研究本市企业外语复合型人才开发与培养的问题,并对担负语言培训任务的浙江海洋学院外语专业的课程设置和课堂教学提出了改革意见,以求该专业毕业生尽快适应今后社会的需要。     

论朝鲜半岛局势缓和所蕴含的商机——将威海发展成为东北亚转口贸易中心的构想

虽然朝鲜半岛的局势已趋缓和 ,但实现统一还相当遥远 ,而在北、南之间又难以开辟直接贸易的途径 ,这就为威海提供了机遇——作为朝、韩间接贸易的主要转口港 ,即类似目前香港在海峡两岸间所扮演的角色。通过转口贸易积累资金并带动相关产业的发展 ,可望把威海建成“北方香港”,并闯出一条依靠海向腹地发展和振兴港口城市的新路。     

人民币汇率波动与贸易收支的协整分析

本文研究的是1985-2004年我国的进出口价格的需求弹性。首先给出了进出口价格需求弹性理论说明,接着通过平稳性检验、协整检验、建立误差修正模型等方法,分别对进口相对价格需求弹性和出口相对价格需求弹性进行实证检验。分析表明在我国ML条件成立,人民币汇率波动对我国进出口有显著的影响。     

离子晶体外表面束缚极化子

本文计及表面光学声子的作用以及像电荷的作用,采用变分方法对一些材料外表面束缚极化子的基态能量和自陷能作了数值计算,并对结果进行了讨论,发现:对于Ⅰ—Ⅶ、Ⅱ—Ⅵ,Ⅲ—Ⅴ化合物的外表面,均可形成稳定的束缚极化子,且由于表面光学声子的作用,使这一杂质态更加稳定。     

Theoretical consideration of effect of fishing mortality on growth and reproduction of fish populations

Summary An increase in fish mortality due to fishing can theoretically change the growth and reproduction of fish populations from the viewpoint of adaptation. We address the issue of how an iteroparous fish should convert surplus energy into somatic growth and reproduction at each age under given conditions of mortality. A model of life history, which maximizes the net reproductive rate using the discrete maximum principle, is improved employing a new relationship between body weight and surplus energy which we have recently proposed. The model is applied to the North Sea plaicePleuronectes platessa, for which it has been reported that the average length of young fish had increased whereas that of old ones had decreased for some decades. Although the model cannot directly explain the former phenomenon, the two phenomena can be interpreted as a change in the optimal life history due mainly to an increase in mortality.     

陕西关中地区无公害农产品出口基地运行机制研究

在基地建设和运行中,基地能否最大限度的发挥功能,还取决于多种经济和非经济因素共同作用的运行机制。当前,运行环节的薄弱一直是制约我国农产品出口的瓶颈。该论文从基地建设的微观、中观、宏观三个层面的运行机制出发,阐述了陕西关中地区无公害农产品出口基地建设中,在运行机制方面存在的主要问题。并针对问题,分别从三个层面提出了相应的对策建议。重点分析研究了中观产业组织模式的几种形态,包括:“车间型”、“订单型”、“合作社型”、“协会型”、“飞地型”。     

能源教育：节约型社会建设的重要途径

节约型社会建设目标的提出,进一步对节能工作提出了挑战。加强节约型社会建设和提高节能工作的效果,从国外经验来看,能源教育是一个现实和有效的途径。本文从能源教育的必要性及国外能源教育的经验入手,提出了中国发展能源教育的若干建议。