人类卫生健康共同体理念生成的三重逻辑

2020年3月,习近平提出“打造人类卫生健康共同体”重大倡议。人类卫生健康共同体理念以当前全球新冠疫情的持续蔓延为逻辑起点和初始动因。从理论逻辑审视,马克思、恩格斯的自由人联合体思想是其真理性的理论根源,中国共产党人外交实践的共同体思想是其坚实的理论依据,中华民族优秀传统文化的共同体思想是其深厚的基因密码。从实践逻辑体悟,以“五位一体”总体布局、“四个全面”战略布局、“四个伟大”战略部署为主线的中国特色社会主义伟大实践,是推动人类卫生健康共同体理念生成的题中之义和必然结果。从现实之维考量,中国卫生健康领域的现实境遇、世界人民对卫生健康的现实诉求、全球卫生健康领域的现实矛盾是人类卫生健康共同体理念提出的理论自觉和理论自信。     

中国经济发展的风险分析与模拟计算

在中国经济增速放缓的背景下,分析了中国经济发展的挑战和中国经济对世界经济的影响,运用牛津全球经济模型对中国经济发展的影响进行了模拟计算。研究表明,较高的债务水平和信贷规模增加了中国经济可持续发展的风险,高位运行的房地产市场加速了金融风险的积累,中美贸易摩擦加剧了外部风险,新冠肺炎疫情造成了中短期风险。随着在贸易、“一带一路”、资金流动、消费、产业融合等方面中国与世界经济的深度融合,中国经济对世界经济的影响逐步加深,模拟结果表明,如果中国的经济增长率每年减缓1%、2%和3%,那么全球经济增长率在2020年分别下降0.2%、0.5%和0.6%。进而,提出了扩大企业融资途径、防控金融风险、抑制房地产杠杆、刺激国内消费、加强宏观审慎监管等政策建议。     

Application of a Risk Analysis Tool to Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) Outbreak in Saudi Arabia

The Grunow–Finke assessment tool (GFT) is an accepted scoring system for determining likelihood of an outbreak being unnatural in origin. Considering its high specificity but low sensitivity, a modified Grunow–Finke tool (mGFT) has been developed with improved sensitivity. The mGFT has been validated against some past disease outbreaks, but it has not been applied to ongoing outbreaks. This study is aimed to score the outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia using both the original GFT and mGFT. The publicly available data on human cases of MERS-CoV infections reported in Saudi Arabia (2012–2018) were sourced from the FluTrackers, World Health Organization, Saudi Ministry of Health, and published literature associated with MERS outbreaks investigations. The risk assessment of MERS-CoV in Saudi Arabia was analyzed using the original GFT and mGFT criteria, algorithms, and thresholds. The scoring points for each criterion were determined by three researchers to minimize the subjectivity. The results showed 40 points of total possible 54 points using the original GFT (likelihood: 74%), and 40 points of a total possible 60 points (likelihood: 67%) using the mGFT, both tools indicating a high likelihood that human MERS-CoV in Saudi Arabia is unnatural in origin. The findings simply flag unusual patterns in this outbreak, but do not prove unnatural etiology. Proof of bioattacks can only be obtained by law enforcement and intelligence agencies. This study demonstrated the value and flexibility of the mGFT in assessing and predicting the risk for an ongoing outbreak with simple criteria.     

当前就业形势与未来展望

2020年,在遭遇中美经贸摩擦影响持续、新冠肺炎疫情产生重大冲击情况下,党中央国务院高度重视就业问题,实施就业优先的政策,加强对就业的逆周期调节。就业形势呈现“总体平稳、逐步回暖、好于预期”的发展趋势。2021年,劳动力市场仍面临疫后影响复杂局面,既有维持就业局势基本稳定的有利条件,同时也仍面临诸多不确定性和挑战。就业形势开局平稳,全年有望保持总体稳定,但稳中存变,稳中有难,主要是总量压力持续、增长动力减弱、结构问题突出。对此,要持续强化和落实就业优先政策,坚持经济发展就业导向,继续加大财政、货币、产业、投资等宏观政策稳就业保就业力度,加大结构性政策扶持力度,完善重点行业企业、中小微市场主体和重点群体就业支持体系,加大灵活就业、自主创业支持力度,多渠道促进、加强和创新公共就业服务能力,防控规模失业风险,稳定就业局势,拓展就业新局面。     

多元协同治理的逻辑起点、必然与架构——以新冠肺炎疫情为例

新冠肺炎疫情是由未知因素叠加引发的跨域范围内的重大公共卫生危机事件,是新中国历史上传播速度最快、感染范围最广、防控难度最大的公共卫生危机事件,这就要求我们必须坚持中国共产党的领导,坚持多元共治的治理思路。新冠肺炎疫情必须采用多元共治的逻辑机理,构建多元主体协同的重大公共卫生危机治理体系的逻辑架构,树立多元协同的治理理念,提升多元协同主体之间的协同效应,强化舆情监测过程中多元主体的有序合作,健全法制体系以确保多元主体协同的运行。这就要求我们必须坚持“党委领导、政府负责、社会协同、公众参与、法治保障、科技支撑”的社会治理要求,从而推动新时代重大公共卫生危机治理能力和治理体系的现代化。     

Collapsing of Non‐centred Parameterized MCMC Algorithms with Applications to Epidemic Models

Data augmentation is required for the implementation of many Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. The inclusion of augmented data can often lead to conditional distributions from well‐known probability distributions for some of the parameters in the model. In such cases, collapsing (integrating out parameters) has been shown to improve the performance of MCMC algorithms. We show how integrating out the infection rate parameter in epidemic models leads to efficient MCMC algorithms for two very different epidemic scenarios, final outcome data from a multitype SIR epidemic and longitudinal data from a spatial SI epidemic. The resulting MCMC algorithms give fresh insight into real‐life epidemic data sets.     

健康与疾病:不仅仅是医学问题——从多学科视野看防治SARS

文章从SARS防治的不同视野入手,探讨了医学、公共卫生政策、经济学、人文和复杂性科学各个视野在疾病防治和健康方面的观点和重要作用。提出利用复杂性科学的视野进行综合各种视野的观点,并且认为复杂性科学提供了疾病防治的更广阔、更科学的认识。     

Bayesian inference for stochastic multitype epidemics in structured populations via random graphs

Summary.  The paper is concerned with new methodology for statistical inference for final outcome infectious disease data using certain structured population stochastic epidemic models. A major obstacle to inference for such models is that the likelihood is both analytically and numerically intractable. The approach that is taken here is to impute missing information in the form of a random graph that describes the potential infectious contacts between individuals. This level of imputation overcomes various constraints of existing methodologies and yields more detailed information about the spread of disease. The methods are illustrated with both real and test data.     

中国疾病史研究刍议

瘟疫曾多次冲击中国的政治、社会、经济、文化和生态,也深刻影响宗教与医学的发展。因此,本文提出一些可能的研究途径、研究课题、研究材料和研究方法,希望借以引起学界对于中国疾病史研究的兴趣。     

免疫鸡群暴发马立克氏病[MD]的报告

某鸡场MD免疫鸡群65～85日龄鸡大量发病、死亡，用多种约物治疗无效，通过流行病学、症状、病理剖检和细菌学、血清学（琼脂扩散）试验诊断为鸡马立克氏病。