1949—1966年间中国红十字会的主要活动及其特点

新中国成立之后,在中央人民政府的领导下,中国红十字会进行了改组。1949—1966年间,中国红十字会在医疗卫生、战地救护、灾害救助、战后问题处理等领域开展了大量活动,对于国家的经济社会建设起到了重要促进作用。归纳这时期中国红十字会活动开展的特点有：国内活动侧重于医疗卫生领域;积极实施国际救助并参与国际事务处理;活动开展的行政化色彩比较浓重。     

A Test to Detect Within-family Infectivity when the Whole Epidemic Process is Observed

An epidemic model for the spread of an infectious disease in a population of families is considered. The score test of the hypothesis that there is no higher infectivity between family members is constructed under the assumption that the epidemic process is observed continuously up to some time t . The score process is a martingale as a function of t and by letting the number of families tend to infinity, a central limit theorem for the process can be proved. The central limit theorem not only justifies a normal approximation of the test statistic—it also suggests a smaller variance estimator than expected.     

SARS危机:公共卫生体系的断裂与重构

2003年春天爆发的SARS危机使公共卫生体系的重建成为一个紧迫的问题。公共卫生体系是一个庞大的系统工程,需要建立从政府、军队、媒体到民间组织等多层次完备的疫情危机处理机制,其中民间组织具有非常重要的作用;发生疫情时,公共卫生体系首要的功能就是协调统一有关机构、快速准确收集信息并及时将疫情和防范知识公布于众;全民健康教育和公共卫生危机训练必须成为建构公共卫生体系的重要内容。     

浅谈战争在明清江南温病学派发展中的作用

战争作为一种社会因素影响着医学的发展。明清时期 ,阶级矛盾激化导致农民起义和市民斗争不断发生 ,在清代 ,还加上一系列的外来侵略战争。战争中人口密集的军队本身就是疫病的高发处 ,而部队的行军和由此引起的人口南移更把传染源带至所过之处。而因人口南移导致的江南人口剧增 ,为疫病的高发和迅速广泛的传播的必要条件。另一方面 ,由此带来的江南的繁荣 ,也为医学和文化的传播和发展提供物质基础     

Development and Consideration of Global Policies for Managing the Future Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks: Insights and Lessons Learned Through Modeling

The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes.     

新型冠状病毒疫情对民事合同法律关系的影响

新型冠状病毒疫情给社会各领域都带来了严重的影响。文章拟从疫情的不可抗力性角度展开,认定疫情作为不可抗力需具备特定的地域范围和合同履行受阻与疫情之间需具有因果关系这两个识别因素。作为不可抗力,疫情会引起债务人违约责任的全部免除、部分免除、推迟履行以及合同的解除和变更等法律效果;因各种类型的合同的属性不同,在具体适用不可抗力规则时会有所差异。在分析了疫情的法律性质和法律效果的基础上,拟从法律法规体系的构建、司法裁判的规范、合同条款的设置、人与自然的关系等几个方面对疫情的防控提出建议。     

古代湖南虫灾、风灾、雹灾、冰冻、地震、疫灾简论

古代湖南除水、旱两大自然灾害外,主要的灾种还有虫灾、风灾、雹灾、冰冻、地震和疫灾,都对社会产生了不同程度的影响和破坏。     

A case study in non-centering for data augmentation: Stochastic epidemics

In this paper, we introduce non-centered and partially non-centered MCMC algorithms for stochastic epidemic models. Centered algorithms previously considered in the literature perform adequately well for small data sets. However, due to the high dependence inherent in the models between the missing data and the parameters, the performance of the centered algorithms gets appreciably worse when larger data sets are considered. Therefore non-centered and partially non-centered algorithms are introduced and are shown to out perform the existing centered algorithms.     

Development of a Dose‐Response Model for SARS Coronavirus

In order to develop a dose‐response model for SARS coronavirus (SARS‐CoV), the pooled data sets for infection of transgenic mice susceptible to SARS‐CoV and infection of mice with murine hepatitis virus strain 1, which may be a clinically relevant model of SARS, were fit to beta‐Poisson and exponential models with the maximum likelihood method. The exponential model (k= 4.1 × l0²) could describe the dose‐response relationship of the pooled data sets. The beta‐Poisson model did not provide a statistically significant improvement in fit. With the exponential model, the infectivity of SARS‐CoV was calculated and compared with those of other coronaviruses. The does of SARS‐CoV corresponding to 10% and 50% responses (illness) were estimated at 43 and 280 PFU, respectively. Its estimated infectivity was comparable to that of HCoV‐229E, known as an agent of human common cold, and also similar to those of some animal coronaviruses belonging to the same genetic group. Moreover, the exponential model was applied to the analysis of the epidemiological data of SARS outbreak that occurred at an apartment complex in Hong Kong in 2003. The estimated dose of SARS‐CoV for apartment residents during the outbreak, which was back‐calculated from the reported number of cases, ranged from 16 to 160 PFU/person, depending on the floor. The exponential model developed here is the sole dose‐response model for SARS‐CoV at the present and would enable us to understand the possibility for reemergence of SARS.     

从中国古代农书看农事信仰

农业是人们赖以生存的物质基础。中国是一个有着上千年农业文明的国家,中国古代农书中记载着诸多农事信仰活动。农事信仰的背后始终贯穿着先民对天、地、人三者关系的理解。从祈农到种植宜忌等可以窥见先民在农事活动中驱疫避邪、祈丰纳吉心理。