论中国抗疫的马克思主义人学向度

马克思主义是中国抗疫的思想旗帜,其中马克思主义人学为严防严控的总体布局提供价值依归,为以人民为中心的防控策略调整提供思路方法,并构成评价公共卫生治理现代化的重要尺度,对疫情防控具有指导性的意义.在中国抗击疫情的过程中,生命至上是贯彻始终的核心理念,以人民为中心是取得胜利的根本动力,集体主义是凝聚力量的核心价值取向,团结合作是应对疫情国际化的基本主张,历史的、实践的马克思主义人学得到充分彰显.新冠肺炎疫情的出现及其在全球范围的扩散也反映出当前人与人、人与自然、人与社会以及人与世界的关系中存在诸多问题,需要从马克思主义人学思想中寻找解决的智慧和方法.     

Epidemics in heterogeneous communities: estimation of R0 and secure vaccination coverage

A stochastic multitype model for the spread of an infectious disease in a community of heterogeneous individuals is analysed. In particular, estimates of R ₀ (the basic reproduction number) and the critical vaccination coverage are derived, where estimation is based on final size data of an outbreak in the community. It is shown that these key parameters cannot be estimated consistently from data; only upper and lower bounds can be estimated. Confidence regions for the upper bounds are derived, thus giving conservative estimates of R ₀ and the fractions necessary to vaccinate.     

A Multicompartment SIS Stochastic Model with Zonal Ventilation for the Spread of Nosocomial Infections: Detection,Outbreak Management,and Infection Control

In this work, we study the environmental and operational factors that influence airborne transmission of nosocomial infections. We link a deterministic zonal ventilation model for the airborne distribution of infectious material in a hospital ward, with a Markovian multicompartment SIS model for the infection of individuals within this ward, in order to conduct a parametric study on ventilation rates and their effect on the epidemic dynamics. Our stochastic model includes arrival and discharge of patients, as well as the detection of the outbreak by screening events or due to symptoms being shown by infective patients. For each ventilation setting, we measure the infectious potential of a nosocomial outbreak in the hospital ward by means of a summary statistic: the number of infections occurred within the hospital ward until end or declaration of the outbreak. We analytically compute the distribution of this summary statistic, and carry out local and global sensitivity analysis in order to identify the particular characteristics of each ventilation regime with the largest impact on the epidemic spread. Our results show that ward ventilation can have a significant impact on the infection spread, especially under slow detection scenarios or in overoccupied wards, and that decreasing the infection risk for the whole hospital ward might increase the risk in specific areas of the health‐care facility. Moreover, the location of the initial infective individual and the protocol in place for outbreak declaration both form an interplay with ventilation of the ward.     

1941年日军常德细菌战造成城区居民死亡人数的研究

常德细菌战造成常德城区和平居民死亡的人数,日本学者据历史的防疫档案记录认为可以确定的是37人;据常德细菌战受害调查会近七年来的调查是336人;而据当年曾参与常德防疫工作的人士估计:有400人以上、50D人以上和600人以上三种说法。我们依据各种史实分析研究,认为死亡600人以上的说法是可信的,并且还有可能超过这一数字。     

玉米矮花叶病毒生物学特征研究概述

对玉米矮花叶病毒病原特性，侵染循环，寄主范围，发病因素及防治措施等国内外研究进展进行了综述。     

从新冠肺炎疫情防控看我国重大公共卫生事件的预防和应对策略

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控工作开展以来,国家在疫情应对过程中总结了很多成功经验,为其他国家和地区开展疫情防控提供了有益参考。同时,也存在很多问题需要在今后的工作中改进和提高。文章从重大突发公共卫生事件有效预防和应对的视角,梳理了疫情防控工作中的有力举措和存在问题,为进一步完善我国重大公共卫生事件应急管理体系建设提供参考依据。     

大数据时代疫情防控中的信息披露与隐私保护

新冠肺炎疫情防控中,大数据技术被广泛应用。疫情信息的公开提高了疫情防控工作的有效性,但频发的隐私泄露事件也暴露了疫情信息披露与隐私保护之间的问题。大数据时代隐私的范围已经被扩大化,为公益目的个人应当接受对其隐私权的限制,但是这种限制应该是合法、适度的。新冠肺炎疫情防控中,个人隐私保护面临着知情同意规则失灵、公共利益与个人隐私利益相冲突、公众知情权和个人隐私权相冲突等困境。为保护个人隐私,必须严格规制疫情信息披露行为,首先要遵循相关法律原则保证其合法性,其次要保障公众的知情、同意和监督权保证其透明化,最后必须严格落实隐私侵权责任制度,严守隐私保护的最后一道法律防线。     

新中国成立初期的疫情与疫病防控的政治化

新中国成立后,在党和国家领导人的高度重视下,疫病防控工作开始走上国家化的道路,各级政府积极开展防治工作。传媒动员、参与动员等强有力的政治动员形式的运用,促成了大规模的群众运动,并使得新中国成立初期的各种疫病防控取得了巨大成就。疾病防控的国家化和制度化、宣传路径的多样化和运动形式的政治化以及强大的政治动员能力和广泛开展的群众运动是有效控制疫病流行的根本保证。即如王小军在其书中所揭示:政治决定着疫病防治的效果。     

一类具有非线性传染率SEIS传染病模型动力学分析

文章考虑一类具有非线性传染率且人口有输入输出的传染病模型,得到疾病控制的阀值:基本再生数R0.当R0 ＜1时,无病平衡点是全局渐进稳定的,且疾病最终灭绝;当R0 ＞1时,无病平衡点不稳定,而唯一的地方病平衡点是局部渐进稳定的.     

Fertility In England: A Long-Term Perspective

This paper deals with two aspects of long-run fertility trends in England. First detailed and widely comparable fertility measures (Coale's indices) are reconstructed for England from the mid-sixteenth century to the present. Secondly the extent and nature of local and regional variation in those indices is discussed. The calculation of Coale's indices has never previously been attempted for so long a time span. Doing so requires the use of several different sources of information and a new method for combining them. The results provide significant insights into the development of the distinctive English demographic regime. The analysis of spatial patterns makes it apparent that local, rather than regional, variation was the main source of different fertility patterns in the nineteenth century. These patterns are obscured when counties or larger units are made the framework for analysis.