Remedial Policies in Radiologically-Contaminated Forests: Environmental Consequences and Risk Assessment

As a result of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986, large forested areas in Europe were contaminated by radionuclides. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions not only economic costs, but also human and environmental risk assessment are desired. Forest remediation by organic layer removal, one of the most promising cleanup policies, is considered in this paper. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in forests. The FORESTPATH model^(1,2) is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the application of the remedial policy. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus.     

对中国当代传媒话语的情景分析——以1950年至1977年<人民日报>元旦社论关键词为例

中国当代传媒话语历经政治话语、经济话语两个阶段,现在正向人文话语转变,这正从本质上反映了中国当代社会由政治社会转向经济社会和人文社会的历史过程。本文仅以1950年至1977年《人民日报》元旦社论中的一个关键词"改造"(或"社会主义改造")为例,通过情景分析,深刻揭示中国当代传媒与社会政治、经济和文化之间的紧密关联性,同时展现中国当代社会经历政治社会这一阶段时所留下的历史印迹,说明中国当代传媒就是党、政府和人民的"喉舌",中国当代传媒至今也没有超越"党报时代"。     

Theoretic and empirical data-inclusive process characterization

Summary.  In process characterization the quality of information that is obtained depends directly on the quality of process model. The current quality revolution is now providing a strong stimulus for rethinking and re-evaluating many statistical ideas. Among these are the role of theoretic knowledge and data in statistical inference and some issues in theoretic–empirical modelling. With this concern the paper takes a broad, pragmatic view of statistical inference to include all aspects of model formulation. The estimation of model parameters traditionally assumes that a model has a prespecified known form and takes no account of possible uncertainty regarding model structure. But in practice model structural uncertainty is a fact of life and is likely to be more serious than other sources of uncertainty which have received far more attention. This is true whether the model is specified on subject-matter grounds or when a model is formulated, fitted and checked on the same data set in an iterative interactive way. For that reason novel modelling techniques have been fashioned for reducing model uncertainty. Using available knowledge for theoretic model elaboration the techniques that have been created approximate the exact unknown process model concurrently by accessible theoretic and polynomial empirical functions. The paper examines the effects of uncertainty for hybrid theoretic–empirical models and, for reducing uncertainty, additive and multiplicative methods of model formulation are fashioned. Such modelling techniques have been successfully applied to perfect a steady flow model for an air gauge sensor. Validation of the models elaborated has revealed that the multiplicative modelling approach allows us to attain a satisfactory model with small discrepancy from empirical evidence.     

基于行程时间可靠性的随机交通网络均衡模型

考虑现实条件下交通网络的不确定性状态，提出了从确定型网络到不确定型网络状态下出行者路径选择行为的改变，及基于行程时间可靠性的路径选择模型。并将可靠行程时间的路径选择行为纳入到随机交通网络平衡分配模型中，证明了模型的等价性和唯一性。在一个小型测试网络上对模型分配结果进行了测试，测试结果与经验相吻合，表明模型具有较好的现实可行性。     

《商洛学院学报》2000～2005年作者信息统计分析

利用文献计量学方法,以《商洛学院学报》2000~2005年发表的844篇论文为统计样本,对载文的作者信息进行统计分析和研究。结果显示,高校教师是学报的主要作者群;正高级职称作者发文占6.99%,副高级职称作者发文占23.50%,中级职称作者发文占54.11%,初级职称及无职称作者发文占15.40%;独著占82.71%,二人合著占15.37%,三人以上合著占1.92%;本校作者发文占65.29%,本省作者发文占27.13%,外省作者发文占7.58%;6年间共产生核心作者90人,其中杰出作者4人。     

房地产上市公司财务预警实证研究

房地产业已成为我国重要的支柱产业,因此,建立房地产上市公司财务预警方法对政府、投资商、中介公司和广大消费者都具有重要意义。以主成分分析和逻辑回归分析为基础建立分析模型,并用该模型对2002~2005年沪、深两市45家房地产业上市公司进行实证分析,发现模型对房地产上市公司前两年和前四年的财务预警有较高的可信度。     

中外汽车金融公司融资渠道比较分析

汽车金融业属于资金高度密集型的行业,分析其融资渠道对分析该行业的发展有着重要意义。目前国内汽车金融公司受制于国内的金融市场环境和政策环境,融资渠道狭窄,发展受到很大的制约。通过对中外汽车金融公司的融资渠道进行比较分析,并借鉴国外的经验和结合国内的实际情况,提出了拓宽国内汽车金融公司融资渠道的建议。     

汉英礼貌拒绝差异及成因探析

通过调查和分析三种语境下不同语言、不同性别的学生采取拒绝言语行为时的礼貌差异,指出不同语言、不同性别的学生在采取拒绝这一言语行为时同异并存,并从东西方语言学界对面子概念和礼貌概念的界定对汉英两种语言礼貌拒绝差异之成因做简要分析。以期帮助不同文化背景的人减少人际交往方面的不必要的不适与障碍,也希望有助于从事跨国工作的人士理解汉英两种语言中的交流方式和策略倾向。     

水电工程投资风险分析及其应用研究

水电工程一般具有规模大、投资大的特点，一旦发生风险，造成的经济损失往往很大，因此，对风险的前期评估就显得尤为重要。在分析水电工程投资（费用）和效益构成的基础上，研究了水电工程投资风险变量之间的影响关系。以我国西南地区某水电工程为背景，结合专家经验对该工程进行风险因素辨识，在综合考虑总成本费用及税收等因素的基础上，运用模拟技术，将水电工程投资风险与财务指标相结合，对工程投资风险及其指标进行分析评价，进而为项目的科学决策提供依据。     

实用Box-Jenkins预测模型及应用

介绍 Box-Jenkins 的实用预测模型,并提出用随机模拟法模型的参数进行估计。与通常使用的最小二乘法相比,模拟法无需考虑初始值的选取,就能保证迭代过程的收敛性。整个程序的编制使用模块化结构,使预测者无需了解太多的这方面知识,就能方便地使用。在案例的预测过程中,只需进行几次人工干预,就能输出多种分析结果。