西部各族民众社会焦点问题解决的期望研究

为了解西部各民族对西部大开发中一些焦点问题解决期望的状况,采用自编的问卷,对西部大开发涉及的12个省区的汉族和少数民族共3 526名民众进行调查.结果显示,各民族民众对西部大开发所有焦点问题的期望值都很高,都希望在短时间内解决一些,不要使之继续恶化下去.其中各族民众在经济建设与精神文明建设、百姓收入提高、资源开发与环境保护以及治理腐败方面的期望存在显著差异.     

Attachment and joint attention in infants: The role of expectation

Previous research highlighted the correlation between parent–infant's attachment quality and joint attention skills. However, the underlying mechanisms of this relationship are still unclear. The aim of this study was to assess whether it is by mediating the expectation component in Internal Working Models that the quality of attachment style can affect joint attention. At first, 12- to 20-month-old infants were classified into secure and insecure groups using the Strange Situation Procedure. On a following day, using a violation-of-expectation paradigm, infants were habituated to two joint attention videos. Finally, the mean looking time duration of secure and insecure infants were compared with each other between two “divergent attention” and “joint attention” videos. Infants looked longer for divergent attention videos suggesting they did have expectation regarding the appropriate response in triadic interactions. In line with our main hypothesis, secure infants, but not insecure ones, looked longer in the divergent attention situation when an attachment-related context was present, revealing the possible mediating role of “expectations” in the correlation between attachment and joint attention.     

Expectations of Career Counseling and Their Effect on Client Satisfaction

Although there has been growing attention to clients' expectations of career counseling, more research is necessary to clarify the role of these expectations in shaping client satisfaction at the end of the intervention. On the basis of expectation confirmation theory, this study examined the indirect effect of clients' initial expectations on overall satisfaction through the perceived performance and final confirmation of expectations. We also explored whether this indirect effect is dependent on counselors' initial expectations. Longitudinal data were collected on 83 counselor-client dyads involved in a career counseling intervention in northeast Italy. Results confirmed that clients' initial expectations predicted overall satisfaction with the intervention through the subsequent mediation of perceived performance and confirmation of clients' expectations. The moderating role of the counselors' initial expectations was not confirmed. These findings imply that career counselors should invest their efforts in managing clients' expectations.     

3-Decade Trend in Human Development Index in India and Its Major States

Social Indicators Research -     

The Relations Among Relatedness Needs,Subjective Well-Being,and Depression of Korean Elderly

The first part of the study examined what the relatedness needs Korean elderly have in close relationships (spouse, children, friends) are. The most salient needs were “love and care” for spouse and “contact and often meeting” for children and friends. The second part of the study assessed the relations among the difference between expectation and satisfaction of relatedness needs, subjective well-being, and depression of Korean elderly. Regression analyses showed that the difference between expectation and satisfaction of relatedness needs for spouse and children significantly predicted subjective well-being and depression. Finally, gender differences are discussed in terms of the patriarchal culture of Korean society.     

A nonlinear mixed-effects model for multivariate longitudinal data with partially observed outcomes with application to HIV disease dynamics

The measurable multiple bio-markers for a disease are used as indicators for studying the response variable of interest in order to monitor and model disease progression. However, it is common for subjects to drop out of the studies prematurely resulting in unbalanced data and hence complicating the inferences involving such data. In this paper we consider a case where data are unbalanced among subjects and also within a subject because for some reason only a subset of the multiple outcomes of the response variable are observed at any one occasion. We propose a nonlinear mixed-effects model for the multivariate response variable data and derive a joint likelihood function that takes into account the partial dropout of the outcomes of the response variable. We further show how the methodology can be used in the estimation of the parameters that characterise HIV disease dynamics. An approximation technique of the parameters is also given and illustrated using a routine observational HIV dataset.     

Stochastic approximation Monte Carlo EM for change-point analysis

In the expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation from incomplete data, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have been used in change-point inference for a long time when the expectation step is intractable. However, the conventional MCMC algorithms tend to get trapped in local mode in simulating from the posterior distribution of change points. To overcome this problem, in this paper we propose a stochastic approximation Monte Carlo version of EM (SAMCEM), which is a combination of adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo and EM utilizing a maximum likelihood method. SAMCEM is compared with the stochastic approximation version of EM and reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo version of EM on simulated and real datasets. The numerical results indicate that SAMCEM can outperform among the three methods by producing much more accurate parameter estimates and the ability to achieve change-point positions and estimates simultaneously.     

Estimation of Seemingly Unrelated Tobit Regressions via the EM Algorithm

An expectation-maximum (EM) likelihood algorithm is used to estimate two seemingly unrelated Tobit regressions in which the dependent variables are truncated normal. An illustrative example on the determination of the life-health insurance and pension benefits is also given.     

Robust Estimation for Zero‐Inflated Poisson Regression

Abstract. The zero‐inflated Poisson regression model is a special case of finite mixture models that is useful for count data containing many zeros. Typically, maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is used for fitting such models. However, it is well known that the ML estimator is highly sensitive to the presence of outliers and can become unstable when mixture components are poorly separated. In this paper, we propose an alternative robust estimation approach, robust expectation‐solution (RES) estimation. We compare the RES approach with an existing robust approach, minimum Hellinger distance (MHD) estimation. Simulation results indicate that both methods improve on ML when outliers are present and/or when the mixture components are poorly separated. However, the RES approach is more efficient in all the scenarios we considered. In addition, the RES method is shown to yield consistent and asymptotically normal estimators and, in contrast to MHD, can be applied quite generally.     

Large deviation for negatively dependent random variables under sublinear expectation

Abstract

In this article, first we give the definition of negatively dependent sequence of random variables under sublinear expectation then we establish large deviation principle for this kind of sequence. Moreover, we obtain the upper bound of moderate deviation principle.