光滑暧昧模型下的不透明交易和管制措施研究

本文假定透明交易者对额外投资机会回报率的标准差(方差,投资风险)存在暧昧,这种认知暧昧性抑制了透明交易者的投资行为,会导致风险资产溢价过高及社会福利损失.透明交易者是暧昧厌恶的投资者,其投资决策依据光滑暧昧厌恶模型,需求函数呈现连续且光滑的特征.而不透明交易者,通过支付一定的信息获取成本获得私有信息而具有信息优势,他们是标准的风险厌恶的投资者.通过构建理性预期均衡,本文的研究发现:初始资产严格为正的透明交易者将获得严格为正的超额收益;提高信息获取成本将减少不透明交易者的比例,从而增加风险资产溢价,降低福利水平,因而不是一项好的管制措施;而旨在提高市场透明度降低交易者暧昧性的举措总有利于提高福利水平.     

Causality and interdependence analysis in linear econometric models with an application to fertility

This paper is an applied analysis of the causal structure of linear multi-equational econometric models. Its aim is to identify the kind of relationships linking the endogenous variables of the model, distinguishing between causal links and feedback loops. The investigation is first carried out within a deterministic framework and then moves on to show how the results may change inside a more realistic stochastic context. The causal analysis is then specifically applied to a linear simultaneous equation model explaining fertility rates. The analysis is carried out by means of a specific RATS programming code designed to show the specific nature of the relationships within the model.     

Analyzing the Homeland Security of the U.S.-Mexico Border

We develop a mathematical optimization model at the intersection of homeland security and immigration, that chooses various immigration enforcement decision variables to minimize the probability that a terrorist can successfully enter the United States across the U.S.-Mexico border. Included are a discrete choice model for the probability that a potential alien crosser will attempt to cross the U.S.-Mexico border in terms of the likelihood of success and the U.S. wage for illegal workers, a spatial model that calculates the apprehension probability as a function of the number of crossers, the number of border patrol agents, and the amount of surveillance technology on the border, a queueing model that determines the probability that an apprehended alien will be detained and removed as a function of the number of detention beds, and an equilibrium model for the illegal wage that balances the supply and demand for work and incorporates the impact of worksite enforcement. Our main result is that detention beds are the current system bottleneck (even after the large reduction in detention residence times recently achieved by expedited removal), and increases in border patrol staffing or surveillance technology would not provide any improvements without a large increase in detention capacity. Our model also predicts that surveillance technology is more cost effective than border patrol agents, which in turn are more cost effective than worksite inspectors, but these results are not robust due to the difficulty of predicting human behavior from existing data. Overall, the probability that a terrorist can successfully enter the United States is very high, and it would be extremely costly and difficult to significantly reduce it. We also investigate the alternative objective function of minimizing the flow of illegal aliens across the U.S.-Mexico border, and obtain qualitatively similar results.     

论《潮水集》跨文体写作的艺术张力

散文集《潮水集》的跨文体写作主要表现在两个方面：一是文史交融，作者建构了一个三维情感世界，使作品在文学与历史中穿行；二是均衡之美，表现在“叙事一抒情一叙事”和“议论一抒情一议论”两个创作模式上。     

Single Parent Families

No abstract available for this article.     

农村社会生态理性的社会学研究

本文从理性视角构筑认识论框架,在此框架内对环境价值作出评估。在肯定理性多样化并存的前提下,把两个最具争议的理性——经济理性与生态理性并列齐观,以阐明二者在环境问题上的分歧,并从中揭示出中心价值对边陲价值的侵犯,并以政治形式将其合法化、正当化的过程。如何实现经济理性与生态理性的和解,宏观层面需要工业文明向生态文明的转变,微观层面需要从＂以人为中心＂的价值观向＂人与环境和谐共处＂的价值观转向,在这一转向过程中经济理性与生态理性相平衡的价值观教育是很有必要的。     

Effects of Alternative Policies on Income Redistribution: Evidence from Brazil

Despite recent successes, Brazilian income (cash) transfer policies remain controversial, and alternative approaches to income redistribution are being actively considered. This article contributes to this debate, analysing the effects of several alternative policies for income redistribution in the Brazilian economy using a computable general equilibrium model. Simulations were conducted consistent with the following policies: direct transfer of income, reduction of taxes, and incentives to agricultural exports. The results suggest that transfer of income is the most effective in promoting redistribution of income, with a positive impact on the level of welfare of the poorest households.     

Analysis of all-zero binomial outcomes with borderline and equilibrium priors

This article is concerned with the analysis of a random sample from a binomial distribution when all the outcomes are zero (or unity). We discuss how elicitation of the prior can be reduced to asking the expert whether (and which of) the so-called borderline or equilibrium priors are plausible.     

德沃金的建构性解释与反思平衡

“反思平衡”是一种道德原则或道德理论的证立方法,其具体过程可以分为四个阶段.反思平衡包括狭窄的反思平衡和宽泛的反思平衡,二者追求的目标分别是局部融贯和整体融贯.德沃金的“建构性解释”方法是反思平衡在法理学中的应用.建构性解释中的“符合”和“最佳”维度分别体现了狭窄的反思平衡和宽泛的反思平衡的要求.     

大学生职业生涯规划的反馈机制研究

大学生职业生涯规划应具备系统的反馈机制。按照发生期,反馈机制可以分为前反馈期、中反馈期与后反馈期;按照作用方向,分为正反馈和负反馈。反馈机制的设置原则应具有需求性、促进性、可操作性、动态性、结合性等。