Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of Terrorists

The risk of terrorism is of great concern to many countries and significant resources are spent to counter this threat. A better understanding of the motivation of terrorists and their reasons for selecting certain modes and targets of attack can help improve the decisions to allocate resources in the fight against terrorism. The fundamental question addressed in this article is: “What do terrorists want?” We take the view that terrorists’ preferences for actions are based on their values and beliefs. An important missing piece in our knowledge of terrorists’ preferences is an understanding of their values. This article uses a novel approach to determine these values and state them as objectives, using principles from decision analysis and value‐focused thinking. Instead of interviewing decisionmakers and stakeholders, as would be normal in decision analysis, we extract the values of terrorists by examining their own writings and verbal statements. To illustrate the approach, we extract the values of Al‐Qaeda and structure them in terms of strategic, fundamental, and means objectives. These objectives are interrelated through a means‐ends network. This information is useful for understanding terrorists’ motivations, intent, and likely actions, as well as for developing policies to counter terrorism at its root causes.     

The Strategy‐Focused Factory in Turbulent Times

Few unfocused factories outperform competitors, but focus is elusive because the environment is constantly evolving and this requires changes to a factory's key tasks. So how can focus be achieved and sustained? We present insights derived from an historical analysis of the German Hewlett‐Packard server plant which went through a series of focus changes over the years. Using this example, we provide clues for the right timing of focus changes and discuss critical structural and infrastructural changes required during the focus transitions, as well as cross‐functional coordination and leadership challenges. Our assertion is that production operations constitute a system that can adapt to disruptive change by using the levers of manufacturing policies to stay focused on a limited but absolutely essential task which creates a strategic advantage.     

Post-Modern Ideas in Substance Abuse Treatment

ABSTRACT

This article describes the use of post-modern ideas in the treatment of substance abusers at a long term residential and day treatment center. It describes some of the changes that ensued as a result of a transformation from a “therapeutic community” (TC) model to a “solution-focused” model. The TC is a deficit model that focuses on a person's flaws and weaknesses. Solution-focused therapy, on the other hand, focuses on what a person has done and is doing right and his or her strengths, assets, and resources. This approach not only improves the quality and effectiveness of substance abuse treatment for clients, but also creates a better working environment for staff.     

Estimating Conditional Probabilities of Terrorist Attacks: Modeling Adversaries with Uncertain Value Tradeoffs

Many analyses conducted to inform security decisions depend on estimates of the conditional probabilities of different attack alternatives. These probabilities are difficult to estimate since analysts have limited access to the adversary and limited knowledge of the adversary’s utility function, so subject matter experts often provide the estimates through direct elicitation. In this article, we describe a method of using uncertainty in utility function value tradeoffs to model the adversary’s decision process and solve for the conditional probabilities of different attacks in closed form. The conditional probabilities are suitable to be used as inputs to probabilistic risk assessments and other decision support techniques. The process we describe is an extension of value‐focused thinking and is broadly applicable, including in general business decision making. We demonstrate the use of this technique with simple examples.     

论人民政协提案工作的“群众聚焦”--以黄石市十二届政协两次会议的“群众聚焦”提案为例

采用政协提案实例分析方法,以黄石市十二届政协两次会议提案的结构和动态变化状况分析为例,指出人民政协提案工作重点是聚焦群众、关注民生,这体现了人民政协及其“群众聚焦”提案工作不仅是党贯彻群众路线的一条特殊重要战线,更是人民政协履职党的群众工作的最直接、最有效方式。人民政协“群众聚焦”提案聚焦群众的方式体现为在提案的形成程序、民意表达和问题处理等各环节都坚持群众路线工作方法。实现人民政协“群众聚焦”提案工作的科学化、民主化和现代化,应通过培训调研提升案质,通过视察调研畅达民意,通过落实办理保障民生等途径实现。     

西部民众对西部大开发中焦点问题的社会认知研究

本研究采用自编问卷对西部民众有关西部大开发中五个焦点问题的期望、现实评价、前景预测、态度和行为进行了研究.结果表明,西部民众在西部大开发中的行为和态度正相关程度最高,与民众对西部大开发的期望、现实评价和前景预测都有显著相关.     

浅议加强重点学科建设

在高校事业发展中,重点学科建设有着重要的地位和作用,能推动学校各项工作的进步,因此要将重点学科建设积极纳入学校事业发展规划中,并给予足够的重视,以提高整体办学水平。     

武汉工厂内迁及其对武汉工业发展的影响

晚清武汉曾经是与上海实力相当的工商业重镇,钢铁与军事工业堪称国内翘楚。进入民国后,武汉工业尽管在全国的位次略微后移,但总体趋势是在晚清开创的基础上继续发展,是中国为数不多的重要工业基地之一。1937年7月日本发动全面侵华战争,中国工业被迫向抗战大后方搬迁,武汉工厂作为内迁的重点,与先期内迁的江浙工厂一道,共同演绎了中国抗战进程中的悲壮一幕。武汉工厂内迁不仅避免了武汉工业被日军利用的严重后果,有效保存了中国工业实力,而且促进了抗战大后方工业与当地经济的发展,为争取抗战胜利作出了杰出贡献。但从另一方面讲,武汉的工厂大搬家以及长达7年的沦陷,中断了武汉经济的正常发展进程,给武汉工业造成了深痛巨创,到新中国成立时,武汉工业仍未能恢复到抗战前水平。     

A High‐dimensional Focused Information Criterion

The focused information criterion for model selection is constructed to select the model that best estimates a particular quantity of interest, the focus, in terms of mean squared error. We extend this focused selection process to the high‐dimensional regression setting with potentially a larger number of parameters than the size of the sample. We distinguish two cases: (i) the case where the considered submodel is of low dimension and (ii) the case where it is of high dimension. In the former case, we obtain an alternative expression of the low‐dimensional focused information criterion that can directly be applied. In the latter case, we use a desparsified estimator that allows us to derive the mean squared error of the focus estimator. We illustrate the performance of the high‐dimensional focused information criterion with a numerical study and a real dataset.     

Focused and Model Average Estimation for Regression Analysis of Panel Count Data

Panel count data arise in many fields and a number of estimation procedures have been developed along with two procedures for variable selection. In this paper, we discuss model selection and parameter estimation together. For the former, a focused information criterion (FIC) is presented and for the latter, a frequentist model average (FMA) estimation procedure is developed. A main advantage, also the difference from the existing model selection methods, of the FIC is that it emphasizes the accuracy of the estimation of the parameters of interest, rather than all parameters. Further efficiency gain can be achieved by the FMA estimation procedure as unlike existing methods, it takes into account the variability in the stage of model selection. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established, and a simulation study conducted suggests that the proposed methods work well for practical situations. An illustrative example is also provided. © 2014 Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics