A hybrid approach to configure eco-efficient supply chains under consideration of performance and risk aspects

Formal models that support multi-criteria decision making represent a strongly growing area in sustainable supply chain management research. However, uncertainties and risks are seldom considered in quantitative models for green supply chain (SC) design. The paper at hand suggests a hybrid approach to configure an eco-efficient SC for a new product under consideration of economic and environmental risks. Discrete-event simulation is applied to assess the financial, operational and environmental performance of different SC configuration options while the value-at-risk concept is adapted to evaluate related SC risks. The analytic hierarchy process is employed to solve the resulting multi-criteria decision problem of choosing the best option. The approach is illustrated at a case example of a fast moving consumer goods manufacturer.     

An additive subdistribution hazard model for competing risks data

The cumulative incidence function plays an important role in assessing its treatment and covariate effects with competing risks data. In this article, we consider an additive hazard model allowing the time-varying covariate effects for the subdistribution and propose the weighted estimating equation under the covariate-dependent censoring by fitting the Cox-type hazard model for the censoring distribution. When there exists some association between the censoring time and the covariates, the proposed coefficients’ estimations are unbiased and the large-sample properties are established. The finite-sample properties of the proposed estimators are examined in the simulation study. The proposed Cox-weighted method is applied to a competing risks dataset from a Hodgkin's disease study.     

中等国家与全球多边治理

尽管中等国家的概念内涵存在争议,但是它们在国际社会中的地位、利益、共有观念和认同等使其成为塑造全球多边治理的重要力量。中等国家可根据不同情势,灵活选择个体主义、社会交往及制度主义方式中的一种或多种,旨在实现全球多边治理的系列目标和努力提升它们在国际舞台上的话语权和影响力。从现实层面来看,多边主义是中等国家在准确定位自身能力之后而形成的"利他"与"利己"彼此交错的优先选择,但这种选择面临着巨大的挑战。     

美国银行信用风险与宏观经济变量的实证研究

以2005年到2012年美国综合银行不良贷款的相关数据为样本，对影响美国银行信用风险的宏观经济变量进行实证检验。研究结果表明：美国综合银行的信用风险水平比较高，其信用风险水平与失业率有着显著的强正相关关系，而与 GDP增长率、消费者物价指数增长率、生产者物价指数增长率和广义货币增长率无关。实际上，美国银行业的信用风险经过金融衍生品分散转化后并没有消除，只是被隐藏起来了，并且逐步累积。有鉴于此，提高我国银行业信用风险管理水平措施包括：一是着重研究宏观经济波动以及政策的实施对信用风险的影响；二是提高就业率，保持宏观经济环境的良好状态；三是借鉴西方发达国家较为成熟的理论体系，形成适合我国的风险管理控制方法；四是提高对住房贷款业务的风险认识；五是重视信用文化建设和银行信用制度创新。     

Mapping Invasive Species Risks with Stochastic Models: A Cross-Border United States-Canada Application for Sirex noctilio Fabricius

Nonindigenous species have caused significant impacts to North American forests despite past and present international phytosanitary efforts. Though broadly acknowledged, the risks of pest invasions are difficult to quantify as they involve interactions between many factors that operate across a range of spatial and temporal scales: the transmission of invading organisms via various pathways, their spread and establishment in new environments. Our study presents a stochastic simulation approach to quantify these risks and associated uncertainties through time in a unified fashion. We outline this approach with an example of a forest pest recently detected in North America, Sirex noctilio Fabricius. We simulate new potential entries of S. noctilio as a stochastic process, based on recent volumes of marine shipments of commodities from countries where S. noctilio is established, as well as the broad dynamics of foreign marine imports. The results are then linked with a spatial model that simulates the spread of S. noctilio within the geographical distribution of its hosts (pines) while incorporating existing knowledge about its behavior in North American landscapes. Through replications, this approach yields a spatial representation of S. noctilio risks and uncertainties in a single integrated product. The approach should also be appealing to decisionmakers, since it accounts for projected flows of commodities that may serve as conduits for pest entry. Our 30-year forecasts indicate high establishment probability in Ontario, Quebec, and the northeastern United States, but further southward expansion of S. noctilio is uncertain, ultimately depending on the impact of recent international treatment standards for wood packing materials.     

Dependence function for continuous bivariate densities

The notion of cross-product ratio for discrete two-way contingency table is extended to the case of continuous bivariate densities. This results in the “local dependence function” that measues the margin-free dependence between bivariate random variables. Properties and examples of the dependence function are discussed. The bivariate normal density plays a special role since it has constant dependence. Continuous bivariate densities can be constructed by specifying the dependence function along with two marginals in analogy to the construction of two-way contingency tables given marginals and patterns of interaction. The dependence function provides a partial ordering on bivariate dependence.     

国家主权与全球治理:国际法视角下的互动问题再思考

国家主权与全球治理是两个具有不同历史和时代维度的理论体系,国家主权是建构国际法理论体系的基石。而国际法的发展及其价值取向的转移又为全球治理理念的兴起创设了条件。因此国际法正是推进国家主权与全球治理两大理论体系协调与交融的重要制度平台。     

A Fair Globalization: Creating Opportunities for All∗

Much has been written recently about the supposed decline in the sovereign power of nation-states due to global economic processes and the emergence of supranational governing institutions like the World Trade Organization, the World Bank, NAFTA, the EU, etc. This has posed what some consider a problem for still largely nation-state-centric social theory in terms of making sense of what appears to be a major transformation in global governance patterns and institutions. This article argues that the apparent transformation in global governance is less historically revolutionary than evolutionary with the key being a shift in power relations among capitalist class factions at all levels of governance. Toward substantiating this claim, the article focuses on what some argue to be the (re)-emerging global political-economic significance of subnational city-regions as a result of the apparent geographic rescaling of global governance downward from dominant inter-nation-state relations. Of importance is that this apparent (re)emergence of sovereign actors at the subnational city-region scale is largely the result of this contemporary new regionalist discourse essentially rendering itself a reality. It is therefore a highly contested, and contestable, phenomenon, even in the overwhelmingly neoliberal context of the United States.

Recientemente se ha escrito mucho sobre la supuesta decadencia en el poder soberano de los estados-naciones, debido a los procesos económicos globales y el surgimiento de instituciones de gobierno supranacionales como la Organización Mundial del Comercio, el Banco Mundial, el Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte, (NAFTA, por su sigla en inglés), la Unión Europea, etc. Esto ha planteado lo que algunos consideran un problema para una teoría social todavía en gran parte estado-nación-céntrica en términos de tener sentido lo que parece ser una transformación mayor en las tendencias de gobierno e instituciones globales. Este artículo sostiene que la transformación aparente en la gobernanza global es menos revolucionaria históricamente que evolutiva, siendo la clave un cambio en el poder de las relaciones entre las fracciones de la clase capitalista y todos los niveles de gobierno. Para corroborar este argumento, el artículo se enfoca en lo que algunos sostienen que es el (re)surgimiento del significado económico-político global de las regiones-ciudades subnacionales, como resultado de un aparente redimensionamiento geográfico de gobierno global descendiente de las relaciones inter-naciones-estado dominantes. Es de importancia que el (re)surgimiento de los actores soberanos en la escala de región –ciudad subnacional, se debe mayormente a este planteamiento regionalista nuevo contemporáneo, básicamente presentándose a sí mismo como una realidad. Es por eso un fenómeno altamente controvertido y discutible, incluso en el contexto abrumadoramente neoliberal de los Estados Unidos.

由于全球经济进程以及诸如世界贸易组织、世界银行、北美自贸区和欧盟等超国家治理机构的兴起而导致人们认为民族国家的主权权力受到削弱，近来已广为述及。这对在很大程度上仍以民族国家为中心的社会理论提出了一个亟需考虑的问题，如何理解全球治理模式和制度中的重大变迁。本文认为，全球治理中的显著变化与其说是历史革命性的，不如说是渐进性的，关键是各治理层次上资本家阶级各派系的权力关系的变化。为了证明这一主张，本文聚焦于一些人士所认为的（重新）兴起的次国家城市-地区的全球政治经济意义， 认为它是支配性的民族国家间关系下降为明显的全球治理地理再调整的结果。重要的是，在次国家城市-地区层次上主权行为体的明显（重新）兴起，很大程度上是当代新地区主义话语实际上使自身成为现实的结果。因此它是一个高度争论的和可争论的现象，即使是在美国压倒性的新自由主义语境下。

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International women's magazines in China: Global and local perspectives

Unlike other global media products that are imported from overseas, international women's magazines in China are published via licensing agreements or joint ventures with local companies. These ownership patterns allow local editions of international women's magazines to negotiate the tensions and contradictions between the global players and local publishers. Given the influence of cultural and commercial forces in different economic environments, international women's magazines provide a challenging platform for exploring the interaction between global and local forces. Through a theoretical framework of hybridity theory and in-depth interviews with editorial personnel from the magazine industry, this study explores the global and local forces that have contributed to the production process of international women's magazines in China. The findings reveal that these magazines are a result of a multi-level convergence of local realities and global influences. Although there are factors of control and dependence in many areas such as the publishing ideas, editorial policies, the training of personnel, and the quality of production, both Western-style and Japanese-style women's magazines tend to appropriate and rework global cultures to satisfy local readers' needs, albeit in different ways. As a result, local and transnational influences are inextricably interwoven in the production process of international women's magazines in China. The study provides an extensive understanding of the global processes, the consumers, and the cultural forces that are shaping the media, particularly magazines in China.     

Gendering Global Governance

In this article I map out the major debates on global governance and the feminist critiques of the mainstream interventions in these debates. I argue that the shift from government to governance is a response to the needs of a gendered global capitalist economy and is shaped by struggles, both discursive and material, against the unfolding consequences of globalization. I suggest feminist interrogations of the concept, processes, practices and mechanisms of governance and the insights that develop from them should be centrally incorporated into critical revisionist and radical discourses of and against the concept of global governance. However, I also examine the challenges that the concept of global governance poses for feminist political practice, which are both of scholarship and of activism as feminists struggle to address the possibilities and politics of alternatives to the current regimes of governance. I conclude by suggesting that feminist political practice needs to focus on the politics of redistribution in the context of global governance.