Children and global social policy: Exploring the impact of international governmental organisations

Axford N. Children and global social policy: exploring the impact of international governmental organisations International governmental organisations (IGOs) seek to influence child welfare policy and practice in individual sovereign states. But do they succeed and, if so, in what way? This article outlines the nature of selected IGOs' work, explores the nature of their impact and seeks to explain the pattern that emerges. It also notes areas for further research.     

Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.     

Global Governance and State Governance: Two Strategic Considerations in Contemporary China

Governance is a kind of holistic governance and the notion of governing holistically should be established. The holisticity of governance is reflected in the unity and coordination between value rationality and instrumental rationality, normative appeal and practical appeal as well as global governance and state governance. Global and state governances are two strategic considerations in contemporary China. Actively participating in global governance and rationally promoting state governance is the rational choice of contemporary China, which plays a unique and significant role in realizing the social transformation and national rejuvenation and modernization of contemporary China. Deepening state governance with the help of global governance and promoting global governance with the support of state governance is the basic idea and dimension of understanding and grasping the interaction, coordination and overall planning between the two. The restrictions and effects of global governance on state governance are mainly reflected in such considerations as objects, mechanisms, concepts and interests of governance, and modernization of state governance system and improvement of governance capacity can promote and deepen global governance in a more effective way.     

Inference for Weibull distribution under adaptive Type-I progressive hybrid censored competing risks data

In this paper, a competing risks model is considered under adaptive type-I progressive hybrid censoring scheme (AT-I PHCS). The lifetimes of the latent failure times have Weibull distributions with the same shape parameter. We investigate the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters. Bayes estimates of the parameters are obtained based on squared error and LINEX loss functions under the assumption of independent gamma priors. We propose to apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to carry out a Bayesian estimation procedure and in turn calculate the credible intervals. To evaluate the performance of the estimators, a simulation study is carried out.     

The ‘Bakul Gendong’ as a communication strategy to reject the construction of a cement factory in Central Java

Since 2006, one of Indonesia’s biggest corporations operating in the cement industry has been trying to build a factory at Sukolilo village in Central Java, Indonesia. The potential for of environmental damage caused by mining and the construction of this new factory is the main source of conflict between the public and the giant corporation.The focus of this research was the communication strategy adopted by women in the community to reject the construction of the cement factory in Pati, Central Java, Indonesia. This research used a qualitative method through a case study approach. Interviews, observations, and literature studies were used as data collection techniques for in this research.We found that the practices of the “Bakul Gendong” communication strategy were effective in developing women’s awareness of environmental issues based on the values they believe in. Through the women peddlers, women’s awareness of the risk of environmental damage caused by the cement factories was successfully developed. They also created female farmers’ group named “Simbar Wareh” to strengthen cooperation between them and to better-organize their resistance. The women’s movement to resist the cement factory was also conducted by building a network, meeting authorities, demonstrating, displaying traditional symbols during celebrations such as the “Agustusan” (independence day celebration) and Kartinian (women’s day) as their sites of resistance. The local government and PT. Semen Gresik tended to use technical and economical communicative approaches, while the people mainly refer to local know how PT. Semen Gresik did not use the right communication strategy to understand the conflict that arose and how to handle it, until after 10 years of trying to build a factory in Sukolilo.     

风险刑法理论研究中的错位与检讨

社会风险不能等同于刑法危险，但二者存在动态交叉关系，社会风险可以通过刑事政策转变为刑法中的危险。风险刑法首先是现代刑法应对风险过程中"自觉"的结果，是现代刑法体系的同质组成部分。从贝克划分社会形态的时间考虑，我国早已进入风险社会，且是全面而非局部风险社会。我国社会主要矛盾的转变使我国社会风险在质上表现为严重危害公共安全和公共利益，在量上表现为风险的相对增多，从刑法的应对上来看，似乎只能选择刑法提前介入。风险刑法理论的中国展开应该从实然和应然两个层面出发，前者旨在突出风险刑法的教义学研究，后者需要从社会风险自身的特点出发，有针对性地调整刑法体系，以期防控风险、创造安全。     

The competing risks analysis for parallel and series systems using Type-II progressive censoring

Abstract

Recently, the study of the lifetime of systems in reliability and survival analysis in the presence of several causes of failure (competing risks) has attracted attention in the literature. In this paper, series and parallel systems with exponential lifetime for each item of the system are considered. Several causes of failure independently affect lifetime distributions and observations of failure times of the systems are considered under progressive Type-II censored scheme. For series systems, the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters are computed and confidence intervals for parameters of the model are obtained using Fisher information matrix. For parallel systems, the generalized EM algorithm which uses the Newton-Raphson algorithm inside the EM algorithm is used to compute the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters. Also, the standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates are computed by using the supplemented EM algorithm. The simulation study confirms the good performance of the introduced approach.     

基于动态因子Copula模型的行业间系统性风险分析

国际金融市场间的相关关系以及系统性风险受到很多学者的重视，本文则以我国股市的行业指数作为研究对象进行实证研究。通过构建动态因子Copula模型，文章对行业的日收益率数据进行了动态相关性分析，并基于风险预期占比度量了我国行业之间系统性风险的溢出效应。本文分析了2006年1月4日至2016年7月1日的28个行业指数数据，基于GAS动态负荷因子的变化路径来刻画其相关关系，通过风险预期占比来研究行业间的风险溢出效应。研究表明，各个行业指数收益率之间存在较强的关联性。就单个行业来说，化工行业与其他行业关系最为不稳定。就金融与非金融行业而言，金融行业对非金融行业的影响较大且较为平稳。本文所得研究结果可以为投资者和风险管理者在进行决策时提供一定的指导。     

Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management

Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies.     

Climate justice and sustained transnational mobilization

ABSTRACT

Samir Amin’s final essay called for the creation of a new international organization of progressive social forces. Here I review evidence from twenty-first century transnational movements germane for understanding the likelihood of the emergence of such an international organization and the issues and sectors most likely to facilitate coalitional unity. More specifically, the ecological crises identified by Amin in the form of global warming and climate change have created an unprecedented global environmental threat capable of unifying diverse social strata across the planet. The climate justice movement has already established a global infrastructure and template to coordinate a new international organization for confronting neoliberal forms of globalization. Pre-existing movement organizing around environmental racism, climate justice in the global South, and recent intersectional mobilizations serve as promising models for building an enduring international organization that will represent subaltern groups and have a substantial impact on world politics.