商业银行贷款风险及其防范

商业银行贷款风险是客观存在的一种经济现象。我国商业银行的不良贷款比率居高不下,状况令人堪忧。它严重影响了商业银行的经营,使其在日益激烈的竞争中处于不利的地位。商业银行为适应新协议的标准和日益激烈的竞争,必须加强贷款管理防范贷款风险。本文在商业银行贷款业务的基础上分析商业银行贷款风险形成的原因,提出商业银行贷款风险的防范对策。     

优化我国能源结构的基本对策

我国能源结构存在着以煤炭能源为主、能源效率低、地区性能源短缺以及结构性污染等问题,严重制约着国民经济的发展和产业结构的提升.强化煤炭能源的基础地位、充分利用天然气、石油资源、发展可再生能源、充分利用国内外两种资源两个市场、调整区域能源结构等是优化我国能源结构的基本对策.     

无因管理问题的研究

无因管理作为民法法律之债的发生依据之一,应当根据社会的发展赋予其新的价值。本文试从无因管理的社会意义和法律性质、成立条件、效力、类型化及类型化无因管理的法律效果等方面就无因管理的有关问题进行了研究。     

Discrete time modelling of disease incidence time series by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Summary.  A stochastic discrete time version of the susceptible–infected–recovered model for infectious diseases is developed. Disease is transmitted within and between communities when infected and susceptible individuals interact. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to make inference about these unobserved populations and the unknown parameters of interest. The algorithm is designed specifically for modelling time series of reported measles cases although it can be adapted for other infectious diseases with permanent immunity. The application to observed measles incidence series motivates extensions to incorporate age structure as well as spatial epidemic coupling between communities.     

HEAVY-TAILED-DISTRIBUTED THRESHOLD STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS IN FINANCIAL TIME SERIES

To capture mean and variance asymmetries and time‐varying volatility in financial time series, we generalize the threshold stochastic volatility (THSV) model and incorporate a heavy‐tailed error distribution. Unlike existing stochastic volatility models, this model simultaneously accounts for uncertainty in the unobserved threshold value and in the time‐delay parameter. Self‐exciting and exogenous threshold variables are considered to investigate the impact of a number of market news variables on volatility changes. Adopting a Bayesian approach, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate all unknown parameters and latent variables. A simulation experiment demonstrates good estimation performance for reasonable sample sizes. In a study of two international financial market indices, we consider two variants of the generalized THSV model, with US market news as the threshold variable. Finally, we compare models using Bayesian forecasting in a value‐at‐risk (VaR) study. The results show that our proposed model can generate more accurate VaR forecasts than can standard models.     

Firm-level training in local economic systems: Complementarities in production and firm innovation strategies

The paper presents a conceptual review over the main aspects concerning the role of human capital investments and training activities within production processes, followed by empirical evidence on two local economic systems in Northern Italy, based on recent survey data. Theoretical and empirical considerations are brought together in order to provide new insights on the role of training and the factors associated to training activities at firm level.The potential driving factors of training here analysed compounds structural characteristics, labour demand dynamics, human resource management practices, workforce features, and firm performances. We observe that training activities emerge positively associated with high-performance practices, innovative labour demand features, workforce skill level, firm size, and are affected by labour flexibility in various directions. Empirical evidence confirms most previous results but also adds further important insights. The analysis suggests that a widening gap, between few innovatively evolving and many stagnant firms, could characterise the future dynamics of the Region. The high relevance of structural variables, labour demand factors and HRM/innovation practices shows that regional industrial policies and labour policies should be jointly implemented for increasing potential firm productivity. This is a key concern for the current debate on local systems economic development in the European and Italian environment.     

利率变动下的存续期缺口管理和流量比例调整

在金融自由化和利率市场化的浪潮下,商业银行所面临的利率风险防范问题日益突出。利率风险管理成为商业银行经营管理中极其重要的环节。马考勒存续期缺口管理是现代西方商业银行的主要风险管理手段之一,合理构造存续期缺口可使商业银行净值不受市场利率影响,而流量比例调整可以克服存续期缺口受制于利率变动的不足,综合利用存续期缺口管理对我国商业银行建立风险管理机制起着重要的作用。     

石油企业建立岗效薪点工资制的探索 --以胜利油田为例的研究

从建立油田有限公司基本工资制度的角度出发，分析了岗效薪点工资制的地位、作用及局限性；提出了完善该工资制的具体建议。     

国内外工程项目管理的对比分析与建议

我国目前的建筑业及工程项目管理方法正处于不断改革与发展的时期。研究各国工程项目的管理方法,以避免其他国家曾经出现过的种种问题,建立起符合中国国情的健康合理的工程项目管理体系。在此,对工程项目管理方法相关的几个问题进行讨论。     

试论知识经济条件下企业的管理创新

知识经济的发展改变了经济增长中要素贡献率的结构 ,经济增长内容的转变必然要求经济模式相应转变。管理创新是企业创新的基础 ,创新型管理是现代企业竞争力的根本。企业作为实现经济增长的实体 ,在管理上实现创新是经济规律的必然选择。