一类污水处理项目的运营与排污者行为动态分析

本文针对污水处理项目运营风险高、企业偷排行为控制难问题,首先依据排污信息和排污价格的波动与否,构建了4种计算实验情景;然后针对各种情景分别设计了污水处理价格形成机制、居民和企业社会属性与行为的变化规则,分析了经济压力、社会影响以及政府监管对排污价格形成、排污者行为变化的影响;最后运用计算实验方法模拟了污水处理项目运营与排污者行为在4种情景下的动态变化。结果表明:合理的静态定价策略要优于运营商动态定价策略;动态外部环境既给污水处理项目的运营带来风险,又给政府对企业的监管带来不便;单纯的市场价格机制或政府监管机制很难有效控制偷排现象,也不一定能实现居民的节水减排,企业和运营商的逐利行为可能会使得目标落空。     

Health Risk Assessment of a Modern Municipal Waste Incinerator

During the modernization of the municipal waste incinerator (MWI, maximum capacity of 180,000 tons per year) of Metropolitan Grenoble (405,000 inhabitants), in France, a risk assessment was conducted, based on four tracer pollutants: two volatile organic compounds (benzene and 1, 1, 1 trichloroethane) and two heavy metals (nickel and cadmium, measured in particles). A Gaussian plume dispersion model, applied to maximum emissions measured at the MWI stacks, was used to estimate the distribution of these pollutants in the atmosphere throughout the metropolitan area. A random sample telephone survey (570 subjects) gathered data on time-activity patterns, according to demographic characteristics of the population. Life-long exposure was assessed as a time-weighted average of ambient air concentrations. Inhalation alone was considered because, in the Grenoble urban setting, other routes of exposure are not likely. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to describe probability distributions of exposures and risks. The median of the life-long personal exposures distribution to MWI benzene was 3.2·10^–5 g/m³ (20th and 80th percentiles = 1.5·10^–5 and 6.5·10^–5 g/m³), yielding a 2.6·10^–10 carcinogenic risk (1.2·10^–10–5.4·10^–10). For nickel, the corresponding life-time exposure and cancer risk were 1.8·10^–4 g/m³ (0.9.10^–4 – 3.6·10^–4 g/m³) and 8.6·10^–8 (4.3·10^–8–17.3·10^–8); for cadmium they were respectively 8.3·10^–6 g/m³ (4.0·10^–6–17.6·10^–6) and 1.5·10^–8 (7.2·10^–9–3.1·10^–8). Inhalation exposure to cadmium emitted by the MWI represented less than 1% of the WHO Air Quality Guideline (5 ng/m³), while there was a margin of exposure of more than 10⁹ between the NOAEL (150 ppm) and exposure estimates to trichloroethane. Neither dioxins nor mercury, a volatile metal, were measured. This could lessen the attributable life-long risks estimated. The minute (VOCs and cadmium) to moderate (nickel) exposure and risk estimates are in accord with other studies on modern MWIs meeting recent emission regulations, however.     

Sensitivity,uncertainty, and decision analyses in the prioritization of research

The evaluation of hazards from complex, large scale, technologically advanced systems often requires the construction of computer implemented mathematical models. These models are used to evaluate the safety of the systems and to evaluate the consequences of modifications to the systems. These evaluations, however, are normally surrounded by significant uncertainties related to the uncertainty inherent in natural phenomena such as the weather and those related to uncertainties in the parameters and models used in the evaluation.

Another use of these models is to evaluate strategies for improving information used in the modeling process itself. While sensitivity analysis is useful in defining variables in the model that are important, uncertainty analysis provides a tool for assessing the importance of uncertainty about these variables. A third complementary technique, is decision analysis. It provides a methodology for explicitly evaluating and ranking potential improvements to the model. Its use in the development of information gathering strategies for a nuclear waste repository are discussed in this paper.     

Improved communality estimation in factor analysis

The symmetric treatment of an asymmetric approach to factor analysis is shown to provide accurate communality estimates. In comparison with existing estimates including upper and lower bounds, the present approach is shown to be superior. In one example with known communalities, the present approach perfectly captures those communalities. In two empirical examples, it is shown to produce better communality estimates than any existing method.     

Modelling of connected processes

The problem of comparing, contrasting and combining information from different sets of data is an enduring one in many practical applications of statistics. A specific problem of combining information from different sources arose in integrating information from three different sets of data generated by three different sampling campaigns at the input stage as well as at the output stage of a grey-water treatment process. For each stage, a common process trend function needs to be estimated to describe the input and output material process behaviours. Once the common input and output process models are established, it is required to estimate the efficiency of the grey-water treatment method. A synthesized tool for modelling different sets of process data is created by assembling and organizing a number of existing techniques: (i) a mixed model of fixed and random effects, extended to allow for a nonlinear fixed effect, (ii) variogram modelling, a geostatistical technique, (iii) a weighted least squares regression embedded in an iterative maximum-likelihood technique to handle linear/nonlinear fixed and random effects and (iv) a formulation of a transfer-function model for the input and output processes together with a corresponding nonlinear maximum-likelihood method for estimation of a transfer function. The synthesized tool is demonstrated, in a new case study, to contrast and combine information from connected process models and to determine the change in one quality characteristic, namely pH, of the input and output materials of a grey-water filtering process.     

四联疗法对HP阳性胃溃疡患者的治疗作用及HP清除效果观察

目的 观察四联疗法对幽门螺旋杆菌（HP）阳性胃溃疡患者的治疗作用及HP清除效果.方法 选择我院2012年3月至2013年5月132例HP阳性胃溃疡患者随机分为两组,对照组66例患者采用传统的甲硝唑＋奥美拉唑＋阿莫西林三联法治疗,观察组66例患者采用四联疗法治疗,疗程结束后,对两组患者治疗效果、HP根除率及不良反应进行比较.结果 观察组总有效率为95.45％;对照组总有效率为81.82％;两组治疗前HP均为阳性,治疗后观察组HP阴性49例,转阴率为74.24％,对照组HP阴性38例,转阴率为57.58％,两组比较差异具有显著性（P＜0.05）.两组不良反应发生率分别为4.55％,3.03％,差异无显著性（P＞0.05）.结论 四联疗法对HP阳性胃溃疡患者治愈率高,HP根除彻底,是安全.     

自我表露及其作用

有关自我表露的研究是心理学关于自我研究的一个重要领域,心理学家发现,展示个人信息的行为有重要的心理学意义.自我表露是个人成长和自我实现的必要环节,是个体印象管理和应对压力的有效方式,也是心理治疗的重要途径.     

对我国新型农村合作医疗筹资问题的几点探讨

建立和完善新型农村合作医疗制度应不断探索和创新多元化的新型农村合作医疗筹资渠道,以稳定合作医疗的资金来源;根据不同地区、不同农民的实际收入水平和医疗消费需求状况,探索多层次的新型农村合作医疗筹资和补偿标准;根据我国农民个人及地方政府的投资心理、消费心理,建立自上而下的筹资顺序;结合我国农村实际,不断探索多种简便的、快捷的、农民愿意接受的筹资方式;将农民自愿筹资原则与适度强制筹资原则结合起来,以确保新型农村合作医疗制度的较高覆盖率。     

当前城市低保家庭的医疗困境——以部分城市为例

通过利用对部分省会城市低保家庭患病就医情况的调查及其后续调查所取得的资料,结合前人的研究成果,分析了当前中国城市低保家庭所面临的医疗困境。虽然城市低保家庭可以享受最低生活保障金,以解决最基本的生存问题,但由于种种原因,他们在医疗方面的需求却得不到满足,以致形成了当前比较严峻的医疗困境。     

强制隔离戒毒人员艾滋病治疗权利保障的伦理审思——以云南为例

吸毒人员虽是违法者,但同时也是病人和受害者。除了考虑如何对他们施行有效的管控外,如何保障他们的艾滋病治疗权,维护其理应享有的生命尊严,这是当下亟待解决的问题。针对目前强制隔离戒毒所普遍面临的防艾困境,有必要从伦理学的维度重新加以审思,探寻更合理和有效的路径。