A Risk-Based Method for Modeling Traffic Fatalities

We describe a risk-based analytical framework for estimating traffic fatalities that combines the probability of a crash and the probability of fatality in the event of a crash. As an illustrative application, we use the methodology to explore the role of vehicle mix and vehicle prevalence on long-run fatality trends for a range of transportation growth scenarios that may be relevant to developing societies. We assume crash rates between different road users are proportional to their roadway use and estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for the different vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-pedestrian combinations. We find that in the absence of road safety interventions, the historical trend of initially rising and then falling fatalities observed in industrialized nations occurred only if motorization was through car ownership. In all other cases studied (scenarios dominated by scooter use, bus use, and mixed use), traffic fatalities rose monotonically. Fatalities per vehicle had a falling trend similar to that observed in historical data from industrialized nations. Regional adaptations of the model validated with local data can be used to evaluate the impacts of transportation planning and safety interventions, such as helmets, seat belts, and enforcement of traffic laws, on traffic fatalities.     

先进制造业基本特征刍议

本文结合当今先进制造业已具备的几个基本特征分析了我国制造业发展中存在的一些问题 ,并对如何解决这些问题提出了自己的观点与见解     

批发、零售行业的宏观营销效率研究

我国批发、零售行业宏观营销效率与发达国家相比还有很大的差距。造成这种差距既有经济方面的原因,又由非经济方面的因素。提高我国批发、零售行业宏观营销效率,政府、行业协会、企业三方必须采取相应的对策和方法。     

Dementia Problem Behavior and the Production of Informal Caregiving Services

Informal caregivers of individuals with Alzheimer's disease spend a considerable amount of time providing care. In this paper, we use Grossman's health production and Becker's time allocation models to develop a model of informal care provision to elderly dementia patients. In our model, time inputs produce caregiving services, which provides utility to the caregiver, but reduces leisure. We assume that time is less productive of services on the margin as the disease progresses. In this framework, an increase in patients' disease severity does not necessarily increase informal caregiver time input. The cost of formal care establishes a reservation price for informal caregiving. When the costs of informal caregiving rise above this reservation level, the patient is institutionalized. We test empirically the effect of deterioration in the patients' condition, proxied by both disease severity and dementia problem behavior, on informal caregiving time. We find that dementia-related problem behaviors and functional limitations significantly increase inputs of informal caregiving time. Patients' problem behavior exerts a modifying effect on functional limitations, and patients' comorbidities have no effect on informal caregiving time.     

抗战时期中国工业的西迁与西部的开发

出于抗战和生存的需要 ,国民政府进行了大规模的工业内迁 ,从而对西南地区的工业化进程起到了重大的推动作用 ,成为中国近现代史上一次规模最大、内容最典型的工业化空间传动运动。这种非经济性动力引发的工业化空间传动也存在一定的弊端。     

产业组织的垂直解体与生产者服务业的发展

生产者服务业逐渐从制造业领域分离是当代世界经济发展的重要趋势，是国际分工不断深化的必然结果。在分析了国际分工的演进脉络基础上，本文论述了产业组织的垂直解体对生产者服务业发展的影响，最后提出了加快我国生产者服务业发展的对策。     

Efe fathers: one among many? A comparison of forager children's involvement with fathers and other males

The study reported describes Efe (pygmy) forager one-, two-, and three-year-olds' involvement with males. The Efe of northeastern Zaïre were chosen because their social organization allows us to examine hypotheses based on studies in Western, technologically complex societies about the distinctive role fathers play in the lives of their young children. Behavioral observations of Efe children's day-to-day activities with fathers, men and boys were recorded using a focal subject sampling technique (Altmann, 1974). Two behavioral measures were created to capture the extent to which males were involved with children: Social engagement describes males' involvement with children and social attention describes eavesdropping by children on males' everyday activities. Eight one-year-olds, 7 two-year-olds and 8 three-year-olds were each observed for six, one-hour observation sessions that were distributed evenly over the daylight hours. Data were analyzed using the traditional measure of involvement (e.g., adult males) and using a newly developed measure of the involvement of the average individual (e.g., average adult mate). Comparisons at each of the ages showed that fathers were consistently like other men in the extent to which children participated in social activities with them and watched their activities. Only fathers' level of social engagement declined significantly as children grew older. Boys' role relative to other males became increasingly distinctive as children aged. The findings suggest that Efe fathers may not be unique in the same sense assumed by Western study ideals, and raise questions about the special status given to fathers in Western theory and data. The patterning of mate involvement with children is discussed in terms of Efe community life, and in terms of Efe children's developing understanding of their relationship with fathers and other males.     

武汉制造业人力资本利用效率低下的原因

人力资本对经济增长或发展的实际作用，不仅取决于其存量的高低，还取决于其实际利用效率的大小。而人力资源利用效率低下是我国当前人力资本发展的突出矛盾和问题。以武汉制造业为对象，分析了导致其人力资本利用效率低下的两大关键因素：产权制度缺陷和人力资本投资与配置不当。     

南京广播事业生存状况及应对策略

南京的媒介市场竞争具有标本意义,一直是业界关注和研究的对象。而随着近年来广播事业的崛起,这个市场的竞争格局又增添了新的变数。面对新的竞争形势,南京的广播产业挑战与机遇并存,本文从市场环境、自身存在的不足以及改进措施3个方面进行了考察,并对其集团化改革提出了应对策略。     

Effects of Medicaid managed care policies on mental health service use among a national probability sample of children in the child welfare system

Children in the child welfare system are dependent upon Medicaid to finance services for their considerable mental health needs. This study examines the effects of Medicaid policies on mental health service use among a national probability sample of children in the child welfare system. Data for this study came from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being, the Caring for Children in Child Welfare study, and the Area Resource File. Weighted multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to estimate effects of policy variables on children's use of mental health services, controlling for child-level covariates and county-level health resources. Children in counties with behavioral carve-outs under Medicaid managed care had lower odds of inpatient mental health service use. Medicaid managed care enrollment and variations in type of provider reimbursement did not affect use of mental health services. Older age, greater need for mental health services, and higher levels of caregiver education were associated with increased odds of service use. Restrictions on use of inpatient mental healthcare caused by behavioral carve-outs may disproportionately affect children in the child welfare system who have high rates of such use. Careful adoption of carve-outs is necessary to assure appropriate care for these children.