华庆地区长6深水沉积低渗透砂岩储层特征

通过大量岩芯、铸体薄片、扫面电镜及物性资料分析，对鄂尔多斯盆地华庆地区长6段砂岩的沉积特征、岩石学特征、孔渗特征、成岩作用类型、孔隙结构及孔隙类型等进行了深入研究。研究表明，以深水浊积砂体为主的长6储层具有沉积物粒度偏细、成分成熟度较低、结构成熟度中等的岩石学特点；储集空间主要是原生粒间孔隙和次生溶蚀孔隙，孔隙结构以中、小孔细喉型为主。研究区孔隙度与渗透率具有较好的正相关性，为一套典型的低孔、低渗到特低孔、特低渗的储层。     

同质异形的神灵谱系--藏族湖神与水神关系透视

湖神与水神在藏族地区大量存在。文章从藏族民俗现实出发 ,认为水神与湖神主要有三种存在状态 :湖神与水神分离 ;水神是湖神信仰的核心 ;水神与湖神的互置。文章分析了湖神与水神信仰相异的原因。     

Identification of Nonseparable Models Using Instruments With Small Support

I consider nonparametric identification of nonseparable instrumental variables models with continuous endogenous variables. If both the outcome and first stage equations are strictly increasing in a scalar unobservable, then many kinds of continuous, discrete, and even binary instruments can be used to point‐identify the levels of the outcome equation. This contrasts sharply with related work by Imbens and Newey, 2009 that requires continuous instruments with large support. One implication is that assumptions about the dimension of heterogeneity can provide nonparametric point‐identification of the distribution of treatment response for a continuous treatment in a randomized controlled experiment with partial compliance.     

贸易开放对中国水环境污染影响的实证研究

文章基于2004-2013年中国31个省市的面板数据,采用动态面板模型和差分GMM估计方法,分别选取化学需氧量排放和氨氮排放作为水环境污染的有机污染物和无机污染物的排放指标,对贸易开放的结构效应引致的中国水环境污染排放进行了实证研究.研究结果表明,经济增长的规模和技术效应是影响水环境污染排放的主要因素,直接结构效应对中国水污染排放的影响不显著,贸易开放的结构效应也在一定程度上加剧了中国水环境污染的排放.通过引入贸易开放的相关交叉项进一步对决定贸易结构效应的比较优势来源进行识别,结果发现,对于中国水环境污染排放并不存在所谓的“污染天堂效应”和“要素禀赋效应”.贸易的结构效应会导致西部经济欠发达地区的水污染排放降低,而对中东部经济相对发达地区,贸易的结构效应会引致其水污染排放量的增大和排放强度的加剧.     

创业板公司风险投资对财务治理效率影响研究

风险投资在投资目的、方式、收回等方面与传统投资有很大区别,研究此投资框架下各项财务治理行为对企业财务治理效率的影响,能够有针对性地指导企业完善治理措施,提高治理效率。创业板是我国风险投资参与面最广的上市公司板块,以创业板2009—2013年期间IPO上市公司为研究对象,采用实证研究方法,分析风险投资对上市公司财务治理效率的作用及其形式。结果显示,风投方持股比例越高,参与时间越长,在董事会、监事会高管中拥有席位越多,财务治理效率就越高,但创业板中的联合投资存在“搭便车”现象。上市公司应努力完善并调整企业相关制度和治理结构,风险投资机构加强合作,以最终实现高效的财务治理。     

A win ratio approach to comparing continuous non‐normal outcomes in clinical trials

Clinical trials are often designed to compare continuous non‐normal outcomes. The conventional statistical method for such a comparison is a non‐parametric Mann–Whitney test, which provides a P‐value for testing the hypothesis that the distributions of both treatment groups are identical, but does not provide a simple and straightforward estimate of treatment effect. For that, Hodges and Lehmann proposed estimating the shift parameter between two populations and its confidence interval (CI). However, such a shift parameter does not have a straightforward interpretation, and its CI contains zero in some cases when Mann–Whitney test produces a significant result. To overcome the aforementioned problems, we introduce the use of the win ratio for analysing such data. Patients in the new and control treatment are formed into all possible pairs. For each pair, the new treatment patient is labelled a ‘winner’ or a ‘loser’ if it is known who had the more favourable outcome. The win ratio is the total number of winners divided by the total numbers of losers. A 95% CI for the win ratio can be obtained using the bootstrap method. Statistical properties of the win ratio statistic are investigated using two real trial data sets and six simulation studies. Results show that the win ratio method has about the same power as the Mann–Whitney method. We recommend the use of the win ratio method for estimating the treatment effect (and CI) and the Mann–Whitney method for calculating the P‐value for comparing continuous non‐Normal outcomes when the amount of tied pairs is small. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A visualization method measuring the performance of biomarkers for guiding treatment decisions

Biomarkers that predict efficacy and safety for a given drug therapy become increasingly important for treatment strategy and drug evaluation in personalized medicine. Methodology for appropriately identifying and validating such biomarkers is critically needed, although it is very challenging to develop, especially in trials of terminal diseases with survival endpoints. The marker‐by‐treatment predictiveness curve serves this need by visualizing the treatment effect on survival as a function of biomarker for each treatment. In this article, we propose the weighted predictiveness curve (WPC). Based on the nature of the data, it generates predictiveness curves by utilizing either parametric or nonparametric approaches. Especially for nonparametric predictiveness curves, by incorporating local assessment techniques, it requires minimum model assumptions and provides great flexibility to visualize the marker‐by‐treatment relationship. WPC can be used to compare biomarkers and identify the one with the highest potential impact. Equally important, by simultaneously viewing several treatment‐specific predictiveness curves across the biomarker range, WPC can also guide the biomarker‐based treatment regimens. Simulations representing various scenarios are employed to evaluate the performance of WPC. Application on a well‐known liver cirrhosis trial sheds new light on the data and leads to discovery of novel patterns of treatment biomarker interactions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大型音乐舞蹈史诗《中国革命之歌》的艺术处理

大型音乐舞蹈史诗《中国革命之歌》在进行创作时既要确保艺术创作真实反映历史事实,又要防止与《东方红》重复,需要创作人员精心设计框架,选择材料进行加工改编,具有一定的难度。创作者和表演者通过艺术框架的搭建、艺术素材的加工、艺术演出的处理,使大型音乐舞蹈史诗《中国革命之歌》既具有政治内容又具有极高的艺术美。     

公平合理利用原则在国际水法中的适用局限及其反思

作为国际水法的基本原则,公平合理利用原则具有条约法及习惯法的规范基础,并且可指导跨界水道的利用及水资源分配,但是其抽象性及模糊性降低了适用的确定性。公平合理利用原则适用的局限性主要表现为理论基础不成熟,概念难以统一明确,非排他性考虑因素多元但无优先次序等方面。对公平合理利用原则的反思要求充分尊重跨界水道的自然特性,遵从不造成重大损害原则及国际合作原则,厘清相关考虑因素的优先次序,推动建立水道国家的利益共识,从而实现流域国家对跨界水道的公平合理利用。      

太湖流域的治水传统与水生态文明的承传

通过对太湖地区传统水利生态的一些基本规律的认识,诸如太湖与三江一体化,活水周流等,分析了水生态文明结构的长期稳定性,及其水文生态结构的长期承传性。新时代下基本生态水文结构所形成的水环境问题,仍可以从古代的水利生态结构中寻求解决之路。许多现代水利工程所产生的问题,仍可以从古代的经验中得到解决。水污染的解决,景观水面的增加,古代的活水周流经验可以直接应用。传统文人所重视的水文景观,需要在现代社会承传并推广。