房价上涨对我国人口出生率的影响——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

人口数量和结构是影响我国可持续发展的关键因素,住房是人民群众安居乐业的刚需。近年来,我国人口出生率持续下降。为了实现经济高质量发展,缓解人口危机是当前亟待解决的重要问题。为了探究房价上涨对于我国人口出生率的影响,利用31个省级行政区2010—2019年的面板数据和加权最小二乘法进行实证分析,结果表明：房价上涨对人口出生率产生显著的负向影响,住房价格平均上涨1%将导致人口出生率下降0.13%~0.22%;房价上涨对人口出生率的影响在东部省份以挤出效应为主、在中西部省份是以财富效应为主。当前,通过遏制住房投资投机性需求、给予“刚需”人群购房贷款优惠、适量增加东部省份土地供给等手段,可以助力解决我国当前的人口问题。     

Postdisaster Housing Stages: A Markov Chain Approach to Model Sequences and Duration Based on Social Vulnerability

Housing recovery is an unequal and complex process presumed to occur in four stages: emergency shelter, temporary shelter, temporary housing, and permanent housing. This work questions the four-stage typology and examines how different types of shelter align with multiple housing recovery stages given different levels of social vulnerability. This article also presents a Markov chain model of the postdisaster housing recovery process that focuses on the experience of the household. The model predicts the sequence and timing of a household going through housing recovery, capturing households that end in either permanent housing or a fifth possible stage of failure. The probability of a household transitioning through the stages is computed using a transition probability matrix (TPM). The TPM is assembled using proposed transition probability models that vary with the social vulnerability of the household. Monte Carlo techniques are applied to demonstrate the range of sequences and timing that households experience going through the housing recovery process. A set of computational rules are established for sending a household to the fifth stage, representing a household languishing in unstable housing. This predictive model is exemplified on a virtual community, Centerville, where following a severe earthquake scenario, differences in housing recovery times exceed four years. The Centerville analysis results in nearly 5% of households languishing in unstable housing, thereby failing to reach housing recovery. These findings highlight the disparate trajectories experienced by households with different levels of social vulnerability. Recommendations are provided at the end for more equitable postdisaster recovery policies.     

The misunderstood consequences of Shelley v. Kraemer

Shelley v. Kraemer (1948) was a landmark civil rights ruling, in which the Supreme Court held that private racial covenants could not be enforced by the state to evict black buyers of “restricted” homes. Fair housing scholars have generally dismissed or downplayed the practical effects of Shelley, since other forms of housing discrimination remained very powerful. Using spatial lag models and detailed geographic data on the location of covenants and patterns of intra-urban black migration, we compare the role of Shelley with other forces shaping mid-century neighborhood change. We find that Shelley precipitated white-to-black neighborhood transitions after 1948 and changed the nature of the dual housing market in important ways. We also show that increased black mobility produced a sharp increase in intra-black economic segregation during the 1950s and 1960s.     

‘Growing Old’ in Shelters and ‘On the Street’: Experiences of Older Homeless People

Homelessness among older people in Canada is both a growing concern, and an emerging field of study. This article reports thematic results of qualitative interviews with 40 people aged 46 to 75, carried out as part of a mixed-methods study of older people who are homeless in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. Our participants included people with histories of homelessness (n = 14) and persons new to homelessness in later life (n = 26). Interviews focused on experiences at the intersections of aging and homelessness including social relationships, the challenges of living on the streets and in shelters in later life, and the future. This article outlines the 5 main themes that capture the experience of homelessness for our participants: age exacerbates worries; exclusion and isolation; managing significant challenges; shifting needs and realities; and resilience, strength, and hope. Together, these findings underscore the need for specific programs geared to the unique needs of older people who are homeless.     

Housing hardship and energy insecurity among native-born and immigrant low-income families with children in the United States

The costs for rent and utilities account for the largest share of living expenses, yet these two critical dimensions of material hardship have seldom been examined concurrently in population-based studies. This paper employs multivariate statistical analysis using American Community Survey data to demonstrate the relative risk ratio of low-income renter-occupied households with children experiencing ‘rent burden', ‘energy insecurity', or a ‘double burden’ as opposed to no burden. Findings suggest that low-income households are more likely to experience these economic hardships in general but that specific groups are disproportionately burdened in different ways. For instance, whereas immigrants are more likely to experience rental burden, they are less likely to experience energy insecurity and are also spared from the double burden. In contrast, native-born African Americans are more likely than all other groups to experience the double burden. These results may be driven by the housing stock available to certain groups due to racial residential segregation, decisions regarding the quality of housing low-income householders are able to afford, as well as home-country values, such as modest living and energy conservation practices, among immigrant families. This paper also points to important policy gaps in safety net benefits related to housing and energy targeting low-income households.     

Supportive Housing for Addicted,Incarcerated Homeless Adults

ABSTRACT

Homeless populations often suffer from mental illness, substance abuse, and criminality. Interventions, such as supportive housing, can have positive impacts, although benefits can be limited. This study examined outcomes for clients (N = 102) of a new supportive housing intervention. Use of formal treatment, jail contact, and community stability were compared pre- and post-housing. Jail bookings and residential substance abuse treatment significantly declined post-housing, while clients improved in income level, access to food, and housing stability. Results from official justice and treatment system data suggest that supportive housing can lead to significant changes. Future research is necessary to understand the relationship between client characteristics and outcomes.     

Influence of Late Life Stressors on the Decisions of Older Women to Relocate into Congregate Senior Housing

Late-life stressors often require individuals to make substantial alterations in behavior and lifestyle and can affect their overall health and well-being. Relocation is a significant life stress, regardless of age. The primary aim of this study is to elucidate the push-pull factors associated with moving into congregate senior housing. The secondary aim is to investigate the decision-making processes and stresses associated with moving into a congregate living environment. Interviews were conducted with 26 women who were new residents in congregate senior housing. Relocation, as expected, was considered to be stressful, although individual differences were found among perceptions of relocation stresses. Women who had made the decision to relocate on their own showed evidence of better psychosocial well-being at the time of the move. One-quarter of the sample chose to move to provide care to another person. As the options for senior housing continue to evolve and the number of adults reaching advanced age continues to increase, it is important to understand the factors that contribute to successful adaptation. This knowledge will enable facility administrators to implement programs and procedures to assist incoming residents with acclimating to their new homes.     

A Comparison of Spanish and American Housing Policy Frameworks Addressing Housing for the Elderly

Abstract

Housing policies in Spain and die United States have important similarities and dissimilarities mat affect housing for the elderly. Spain, even more so than me United States, promotes homeownership. Bom countries face significant challenges in addressing the housing needs of the elderly, particularly those challenges associated wim aging in place. The paper reviews me broader housing policy frameworks in bom countries in order to understand me context for elderly housing policy. The paper identifies lessons from the American experience mat can expand housing policies in Spain.     

A Dynamic Model of Demand for Houses and Neighborhoods

This paper develops a dynamic model of neighborhood choice along with a computationally light multi‐step estimator. The proposed empirical framework captures observed and unobserved preference heterogeneity across households and locations in a flexible way. We estimate the model using a newly assembled data set that matches demographic information from mortgage applications to the universe of housing transactions in the San Francisco Bay Area from 1994 to 2004. The results provide the first estimates of the marginal willingness to pay for several non‐marketed amenities—neighborhood air pollution, violent crime, and racial composition—in a dynamic framework. Comparing these estimates with those from a static version of the model highlights several important biases that arise when dynamic considerations are ignored.     

中国香港住房保障体系的综述及评估

中国香港实行市场私营和政府公营的双轨制住房供应体系。对该体系中的政府公营保障性住房部分进行研究。自20世纪50年代从私人救灾力量中萌芽,香港保障性住房经过半个多世纪的发展,至今呈现出横向覆盖多样化,纵向保障一条龙的格局特征。总体来说,目前中国香港保障房体系处于良性运行状态,但在配屋效率和流转公平上还存在诸多问题,而该体系从宏观模式上对中国内地借鉴意义不大,内地只能学习其管理经验而不能复制其运行模式。