灰色马尔可夫模型在房价指数预测中的应用

灰色马尔可夫模型预测兼有灰色预测和马尔可夫链预测的优点,并能对较短的时间序列数据进行建模计算。文章尝试将该模型应用于房价指数的预测分析,并对2003年7月到2005年7月间的中房上海住宅指数和办公楼指数进行了实证分析,结果表明模型的拟合精度较高,在房价指数的预测中有较强的适用性。     

Precariously placed: housing affordability,quality and satisfaction of Australians with disabilities

Access to adequate, safe, secure, accessible and affordable housing is a fundamental human right and one stipulated in the United Nations Conventions on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities. Australian adults with disabilities experience housing disadvantage including homelessness, poor-quality housing and housing unaffordability; however, we lack a comprehensive comparison of the housing circumstances of people with and without disabilities and differences by impairment type. We analysed data from a nationally representative sample of 11,394 working-aged Australians collected in 2011. We found that people with disabilities experienced disadvantage across all housing indicators, and people with intellectual and psychological disabilities fared worst. These findings suggest that there is a housing crisis for Australians with disabilities, which may intensify with the introduction of the National Disability Insurance Scheme. There is a need to develop long-term housing solutions that promote independence, are accessible and affordable, and that consider location and neighbourhood context.     

The Effects of Housing Costs on Nursing Home Diversion

Abstract

This article examines the effect of the housing market on nursing home diversion and/or transition. Prior evaluations of federally funded diversion/transition efforts indicate that lack of housing may be a significant impediment to diversion policy efforts. We test this charge by examining the transition rates in all 351 municipalities in Massachusetts, using a data set of over 15,000 individuals seeking to remain or transition home between 2010 and 2014 through Massachusetts' Options Counseling program and their relation to key indicators of housing quality and affordability, including housing burden, crowding, and incomplete kitchen and plumbing facilities. We also control for demographic indicators identified in previous findings, which are age, level of frailty, and whether seniors live alone. We do not find a significant relationship between housing affordability or quality and successful nursing home diversion. This fact suggests that consumers are not as sensitive to housing costs and conditions as previously expected. Future research should continue to investigate the economic and social conditions behind this fact in the context of home value appreciation, incidence of home ownership, and the ability of seniors to offset nursing home costs through accumulated home equity.     

跨越移民之桥:移民高校教师的住房和社会融入——以福建省漳州市为例

在迁入地获得体面住房和实现社会融入是移民面临的重大挑战,对福建省漳州市移民高校教师群体的调查表明,移民教师较快速地实现了住房和婚姻融入,住房对融入决心有积极影响;乡城移民效应不显著,外来移民效应虽然较强,但为时间效应所削弱,与进城已30多年却难以融入到城市的中国农民工形成了鲜明对比,并显示出较高人力资本在跨越移民之"桥"上的积极作用。然而与本地教师相比,移民教师处境要差一些,社会文化融入和融入决心相对不足,且面临学历贬值的影响。     

对创新住房公积金档案利用和服务工作的思考

住房公积金业务的延伸和发展,以及信息产业的崛起、新型信息材料的出现、现代记录方式的运用等,给住房公积金档案工作带来了新的课题。在对住房公积金档案工作的现状分析的基础上,对如何创新住房公积金档案工作进行了探索和思考。     

中国保障性住房制度的法律思考：以辽宁省为视角

在取消福利分房制度、城乡收入差距加大、商品房价格持续攀升的背景下,中国保障性住房制度得到发展。然而,保障性住房制度发展中出现的一些问题影响了这一制度的有效实施。对保障性住房制度的法律框架进行梳理,在此基础上对保障性住房发展实践中存在的法律问题进行剖析,并探讨问题的解决途径。     

Transgender Adults’ Access to College Bathrooms and Housing and the Relationship to Suicidality

ABSTRACT

Transgender and gender non-conforming people frequently experience discrimination, harassment, and marginalization across college and university campuses (Bilodeau, 2007; Finger, 2010; Rankin et al., 2010; Seelman et al., 2012). The minority stress model (Meyer, 2007) posits that experiences of discrimination often negatively impact the psychological wellbeing of minority groups. However, few scholars have examined whether college institutional climate factors—such as being denied access to bathrooms or gender-appropriate campus housing—are significantly associated with detrimental psychological outcomes for transgender people. Using the National Transgender Discrimination Survey, this study analyzes whether being denied access to these spaces is associated with lifetime suicide attempts, after controlling for interpersonal victimization by students or teachers. Findings from sequential logistic regression (N = 2,316) indicate that denial of access to either space had a significant relationship to suicidality, even after controlling for interpersonal victimization. This article discusses implications for higher education professionals and researchers.     

对我国城市住房保障制度的再思考

住房保障是社会保障体系的重要构成内容,也是实现小康社会的重要举措。政府作为城市住房保障制度的责任主体,应着力解决城市住房保障制度所面临的问题,深化城市住房制度改革,发展和完善我国的城市住房保障制度。     

以房养老与住房反向抵押贷款

随着我国老龄化社会程度的加重,社会保障压力不容回避。而市场经济发达的国家通过住房反向抵押贷款,实现了以房养老,既提高了老年人的生活质量,又减轻了国家社会保障压力。因此,在我国推出住房反向抵押贷款,对于缓解社会保障压力,构建和谐社会有着重要意义。文章分析了当前我国住房反向抵押贷款面临的问题及国外反向抵押贷款模式的实施,并借鉴其经验,为我所用。     

我国住房反向抵押贷款运作模式研究

住房反向抵押贷款对于正处于经济积累发展阶段、刚刚步入老龄化社会、各项养老保障制度尚待充实完善的中国社会而言,是一个崭新的事物。通过对住房反向抵押贷款的概述,借鉴国外住房反向抵押贷款成功运作的基本经验,同时结合我国客观实际情况,指出我国现阶段实施住房反向抵押贷款所面临的机遇和挑战。在此基础上对我国实施住房反向抵押贷款的运作模式进行设计,并对运作过程中的各参与方、运作流程、资金流向进行详细分析,同时指出一些在运作过程中亟需解决的问题。