Gambling Reputation: Repeated Bargaining With Outside Options

We study the role of incomplete information and outside options in determining bargaining postures and surplus division in repeated bargaining between a long‐run player and a sequence of short‐run players. The outside option is not only a disagreement point, but reveals information privately held by the long‐run player. In equilibrium, the uninformed short‐run players' offers do not always respond to changes in reputation and the informed long‐run player's payoffs are discontinuous. The long‐run player invokes inefficient random outside options repeatedly to build reputation to a level where the subsequent short‐run players succumb to his extraction of a larger payoff, but he also runs the risk of losing reputation and relinquishing bargaining power. We investigate equilibrium properties when the discount factor goes to 1 and when the informativeness of outside options diffuses. In both cases, bargaining outcomes become more inefficient and the limit reputation‐building probabilities are interior.     

Sentiments

This paper develops a new theory of fluctuations—one that helps accommodate the notions of “animal spirits” and “market sentiment” in unique‐equilibrium, rational‐expectations, macroeconomic models. To this goal, we limit the communication that is embedded in a neoclassical economy by allowing trading to be random and decentralized. We then show that the business cycle may be driven by a certain type of extrinsic shocks which we call sentiments. These shocks formalize shifts in expectations of economic activity without shifts in the underlying preferences and technologies; they are akin to sunspots, but operate in unique‐equilibrium models. We further show how communication may help propagate these shocks in a way that resembles the spread of fads and rumors and that gives rise to boom‐and‐bust phenomena. We finally illustrate the quantitative potential of our insights within a variant of the RBC model.     

Gamma failure‐time mixture models: yet another way to establish efficacy

Using a Yamaguchi‐type generalized gamma failure‐time mixture model, we analyse the data from a study of autologous and allogeneic bone marrow transplantation in the treatment of high‐risk refractory acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, focusing on the time to recurrence of disease. We develop maximum likelihood techniques for the joint estimation of the surviving fractions and the survivor functions. This includes an approximation to the derivative of the survivor function with respect to the shape parameter. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters. We also compute the variance‐covariance matrix of the parameter estimators. The extended family of generalized gamma failure‐time mixture models is flexible enough to include many commonly used failure‐time distributions as special cases. Yet these models are not used in practice because of computational difficulties. We claim that we have overcome this problem. The proposed approximation to the derivative of the survivor function with respect to the shape parameter can be used in any statistical package. We also address the issue of lack of identifiability. We point out that there can be a substantial advantage to using the gamma failure‐time mixture models over nonparametric methods. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

公共物品供给效率研究

充足的公共物品供给在经济建设中有重大意义。文章分析了公共物品的性质及其供给模式,运用博弈论对公共物品的市场供给和政府供给效率进行了比较,认为我国应该构建多元的公共物品供给模式,推进服务型政府改革,明确政府和市场边界,减少公共物品供给中寻租行为。     

基本医疗保险中共谋问题的研究与防范

本文首先讨论了在我国当前实行的基本医疗保险体系中患者和医疗机构为了共同的利益,利用信息优势,形成共谋来欺骗医疗保险机构的可能性。然后在建立基本医疗保险体系的简单模型的基础上,分析了医患共谋产生的情况,详细讨论了有效防止医患共谋的保险合同的设计问题,并且得出了此类保险合同所具有的一系列基本特性。     

国有企业混合所有制改革下股东利益博弈分析

国有企业混合所有制改革是当前理论探讨的热点。以分权控制理论为基础,构建国有股东、民营股东和监督机构三方的利益博弈模型,并对模型进行分析。结果显示,国有股东侵占民营股东的概率受监督机构监督成本和国有股东被监督损失等因素的影响,监督机构选择自主监督国有股东的概率受国有股东侵占行为惩罚力度系数、国有股东侵占额外收益和民营股东诉讼赔偿等因素影响。要加强对国有股东的惩罚力度,发挥好政府的监督作用,增强中小股东权利保障机制,推进国有企业混合所有制改革的步伐。     

Optimal block designs for double cross experiments

ABSTRACT

This paper presents systematic methods of construction of optimal block designs for a double cross experiments for both even and odd values of “p” parental lines. The both even and odd values of designs are derived by using initial block of unreduced balanced incomplete block designs and initial block of row–column designs given by Bose et al. (1953 Bose, R.C., Shrikhande, S.S., Bhattacharya, K.N. (1953). On the construction of group divisible incomplete block design. Ann. Math. Stat. 24:167–195.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) and Gupta and Choi (1998 Gupta, S., Choi, K.C. (1998). Optimal row-column designs for complete diallel crosses. Commun. Stat. Theory Methods 27(11):2827–2835.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), respectively. In this attempt we have found some new universally optimal block designs for double cross experiments.     

Testing a main effect in a three factor mixed model

In the present paper, the author has considered and compared the power of three test procedures, based on two preliminary tests of significance (PTS), for testing a main effect in a three factor factorial experiment. Davenport and Webster (1973) type test statistics are used in the final test. Recommendation for a suitable size of PTS has been made so that the power of a test procedure is adequately high.     

Type a incomplete multi-response designs

Srivastava considered the problem of designing and analysis of incomplete multi-response experiments, The main characteristics of the analysis given by her are investigated and a general class of incomplete multiresponse designs (Type A) is obtained on the basis of these investigations.     

A more generalized stirling distribution of the second kind

A more generalized stirling distribution of the second kind (MGSDSK) is introduced in this paper as the distribution of the sum of the independent but not identically distributed left truncated Poisson variables. Properties of MGSDSK are studied. The recursion relation and decomposition of MGSDSK are obtained. The rth moment is also found and a new recurrence relationship for them are given. A new incomplete exponential function is utilized in the derivations. A MVU estimate of the p, d, f. of MGSDSK is obtained.