北京远期能源需求与大气环境目标及近期对策探讨

北京市为实现本世纪前半叶建成世界一流国际化大都市的战略目标及实施能源结构调整规划 ,需要研究远期能源需求和大气环境目标。文章根据北京市的发展战略和规划 ,并与国际上的发展进行比较 ,测算了届时的能源需求 ,探讨了应达到的大气环境目标 ,分析了达到未来大气环境目标的不同进程对能源系统成本的影响。建议在保证大气环境质量整体效果情况下 ,采用渐近进程减少能源引起的大气污染 ,以降低能源系统成本 ;并在考虑远期能源与大气环境要求下 ,分析了近期发展热电联产和煤炭利用对策问题。     

Omnibus testing and gene filtration in microarray data analysis

When thousands of tests are performed simultaneously to detect differentially expressed genes in microarray analysis, the number of Type I errors can be immense if a multiplicity adjustment is not made. However, due to the large scale, traditional adjustment methods require very stringen significance levels for individual tests, which yield low power for detecting alterations. In this work, we describe how two omnibus tests can be used in conjunction with a gene filtration process to circumvent difficulties due to the large scale of testing. These two omnibus tests, the D-test and the modified likelihood ratio test (MLRT), can be used to investigate whether a collection of P-values has arisen from the Uniform(0,1) distribution or whether the Uniform(0,1) distribution contaminated by another Beta distribution is more appropriate. In the former case, attention can be directed to a smaller part of the genome; in the latter event, parameter estimates for the contamination model provide a frame of reference for multiple comparisons. Unlike the likelihood ratio test (LRT), both the D-test and MLRT enjoy simple limiting distributions under the null hypothesis of no contamination, so critical values can be obtained from standard tables. Simulation studies demonstrate that the D-test and MLRT are superior to the AIC, BIC, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. A case study illustrates omnibus testing and filtration.     

汽车内的空气净化

通过分析汽车内空气品质的特点和污染物的主要来源，提出在车内单独设置至气净化器及加强车用空调系统中的通风净化功能两种空气净化方式，综合利用过滤、活性炭吸附、光触媒和负离子法等技术净化车内空气，并积极采取措施减少污染源。     

改进粒子群算法在空压机联动控制中的应用

针对空压机控制系统中的节能减排、均衡调度和管网压力波动等问题,提出了空压机联动控制的多目标优化调 度模型,并以改进惯性权重的粒子群算法进行求解。以灰色系统理论中的灰色关联度作为改进粒子群算法的适应度函 数,对影响空压机联动系统的机组功耗、生产均衡调度和管网压力波动等多目标进行了优化求解。引入的非线性动态调 整惯性权重策略改进了算法的全局收敛能力,有效地提高了粒子搜索过程中的智能性。通过某饮料罐装车间的技术改 造,证明了本算法的有效性。     

Risk Perceptions and Value of a Statistical Life for Air Pollution and Traffic Accidents: Evidence from Bangkok,Thailand

This paper presents results of two contingent valuation surveys conducted in Bangkok measuring individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce mortality risk arising from two risk contexts: air pollution traffic accidents Results from the risk perception survey disclose that respondents view the two risks differently. WTP to reduce air pollution risk is influenced by degrees of dread, severity, controllability and personal exposure, while WTP to reduce traffic accident risk is influenced by perceived immediate occurrence. Nevertheless, the value of a statistical life (VSL) for both air pollution and traffic accidents are comparable (US$0.74 to $1.32 million and US$0.87 to $1.48 million, respectively). This indicates that the risk perception factor alone has little impact on the VSL, a finding similar to previous studies using program choice indifferences.JEL Classification: I18, D61, J17, J28     

空中交通管理系统安全评价研究

针对以往空中交通管理系统安全评价的不全面性,提出要从＂隐性＂和＂显性＂层面对空中交通管理系统的安全状况进行准确评估。在＂隐性＂层面以空管系统的人、设备、环境和管理为基本因素,建立空中交通管理＂隐性＂层面评价指标体系,并在空管安全评价中首次利用了Kaufm ann和Gupta模糊德尔菲法求取指标的隶属度,避免了利用专家打分的模糊性和不准确性,为＂隐性＂层面准确评估提供了坚实的基础;在＂显性＂层面提出了集值统计模型,并利用落影函数计算出指标的威胁度。最终结合实例对中国空管系统的安全状况进行了评价。实证分析表明,该方法能较为准确地反应中国空管系统的安全状况,具有较好的参考价值。     

Happy Living in Darkness! Indoor Lighting in Relation to Activities of Daily Living,Visual and General Health in 75-Year-Olds Living at Home

ABSTRACT

Lighting has been identified as a significant environmental attribute for promoting vision and general health among older people, enabling successful aging at home, but it has received little attention in the literature. Indoor lighting levels, self-reported vision and general health, and activities of daily life were measured in 114 healthy 75-year-old Norwegians. Despite very low levels of indoor lighting, the subjects were happy and healthy. There is a large discrepancy between self-assessed health and recommended lighting levels, and low awareness of the effect of lighting on age-related vision loss or daily living in the future. Knowledge of how to utilize indoor lighting to ensure healthy and safe aging in the home is needed.     

兽医大动物生物安全三级实验室围护结构的气密防护研究

目的分析我国标准与国际标准在大动物生物安全三级实验室（LABSL-3）围护结构严密性指标上的区别,实验测试LABSL-3围护结构的气密防护性能。方法采用幂指数空气渗透特性方程描述室内相对外环境压差与空气泄漏量的关系,比较各标准规定的兽医LABSL一3围护结构严密性指标。以中国农业科学院兰州兽医研究所的1间大动物饲养室为实验对象,对围护结构进行改造并验证其严密性是否达到相关标准要求。结果与结论实验改造的大动物饲养室经测试其严密性可达到加拿大标准对大动物生物安全三级实验室围护结构严密性的要求。说明通过加强密封工艺,选用合适的气密防护设备,我国兽医LABSL-3围护结构的严密性完全能够达到国际标准要求。     

抗战期间贵州航空业的发展及其影响初探

抗战期间,西南地区成为中国抗战的大后方。由于贵州地处大西南的中枢位置,为满足抗战的需要,在国民政府的支持下,贵州的航空运输业获得了大发展,有力地推动了贵州社会经济的发展。