论室内设计之手绘表现

室内设计中手绘表现对创意方案的推导和完善起着不可替代的重要作用,是沟通与交流设计思想最便利的方法和手段,是对创意方案的美学释义。其技巧与方法的突出特点是自由与随意,具有其他表现手段无法比拟的优势,能表达出设计者最初的创作灵感。     

21世纪国际航空私法的新发展(下)——关于1999年《蒙特利尔公约》航空责任运输立法的评论与分析

作为华沙国际航空运输责任体制一体化和现代化改革成果的1999年《蒙特利尔公约》于2003年正式生效和适用,它是国际航空运输责任法已进入到一个新的发展阶段的标志。运用比较方法分析该公约与华沙体系责任规则之间的关系及其对华沙责任规则的新发展,提出国际航空运输责任立法的重心已经从保护航空运输承运人利益转向加强保护航空运输消费者的利益,归责原则的客观化和赔偿责任的无限制已经成为21世纪国际航空私法发展的普遍趋势。     

气钉枪枪体材料A356替换ADC12的压铸性能分析

利用现有模具,将气钉枪枪体材料由ADC12换成机械性能更佳的A356铝合金的可行性进行研究。利用ProCAST软件,模拟ADC12和A356两种材料进行枪体压铸时的流场和温度场,得出由于A356合金相变时热导率提升速度快,壁厚向壁薄处的传热速度更快,铸件在相变时具有更均匀的温度梯度分布,凝固效果更好,因此可用来替换ADC12进行枪体压铸。     

Predicting psychological ripple effects: the role of cultural identity, in-group/out-group identification, and attributions of blame in crisis communication

Incidents of intentional food contamination can produce ripple effects in consumers such as reduced trust and increased anxiety. In their postcrisis communication, food companies often direct the blame at the perpetrator in an effort to mitigate potential losses and regain consumer trust. The attempt to placate consumers may, in itself, potentially create psychological ripple effects in message readers. This study examined the interacting influence of two message characteristics: identity of the perpetrator of the crime (in-group/out-group membership), and the attribution of blame (reason why the perpetrator committed the crime), with message receiver characteristic (cultural identity) on psychological ripple effects such as blame, trust, anxiety, and future purchase intention. Results indicated that although group membership of the perpetrator was not significant in predicting outcomes for the organization, the attribution communicated in the message was. American message receivers blamed the organization more and trusted it less when personal dispositional attributions were made about the perpetrator. Asian message receivers blamed the organization more and trusted it less when situational attributions were made about the perpetrator. Lowered trust in the company and increased anxiety correlated with lower purchase intent for both American and Asian message receivers. Implications for crisis message design are discussed.     

包头地区土壤重金属形态分布及其环境意义

用Tessier连续提取法测定了包头地区土壤中重金属Cu,Zn,Pb和Cd的形态分布及,环境意意义。结果显示:包头地区土壤中重金属主要以Fe-Mn氧化态.有机结合态和残留态形式存在,生物有效性小。Cu,Pb主要以Fe-Mn氧化态,有机结合态,残留态存在;Cd,Zn主要以有机结合态和残留态存在;而Zn的可交换态,碳酸盐态占比例也较大,为24%,因此具有一定的生物有效性和潜在生态危害。各重金属的生物有效性和潜在生态危害性顺序为Zn>Cd>Cu>Pb。     

汽车空调活塞生产线的节拍研究

为了简化工作难度,汽车空调活塞生产线基本上都分工作业,各工序间容易出现工作不平衡现象,文中研究了某 活塞生产线生产节拍的平衡问题。针对某活塞生产线生产现状进行分析,测定工序作业时间,应用Witness软件进行仿 真建模,发现瓶颈环节与利用率不足等不平衡现象,按照精益生产方法和平衡工序节拍的原则调整工序作业内容,对工 艺流程进行重组规划。通过重组前与重组后的相关参数分析,重组后的生产线取得了明显的改善,提高了生产效率。     

Large-scale Bayesian spatial modelling of air pollution for policy support

The potential effects of air pollution are a major concern both in terms of the environment and in relation to human health. In order to support environmental policy, there is a need for accurate measurements of the concentrations of pollutants at high geographical resolution over large regions. However, within such regions, there are likely to be areas where the monitoring information will be sparse and so methods are required to accurately predict concentrations. Set within a Bayesian framework, models are developed which exploit the relationships between pollution and geographical covariate information, such as land use, climate and transport variables together with spatial structure. Candidate models are compared based on their ability to predict a set of validation sites. The chosen model is used to perform large-scale prediction of nitrogen dioxide at a 1×1 km resolution for the entire EU. The models allow probabilistic statements to be made with regard to the levels of air pollution that might be experienced in each area. When combined with population data, such information can be invaluable in informing policy by indicating areas for which improvements may be given priority.     

Poisson Regression and the Case-Crossover Design: Similarities and Differences

Poisson regression and case-crossover are frequently used methods to estimate transient risks of environmental exposures such as particulate air pollution on acute events such as mortality. Roughly speaking, a case-crossover design results from a Poisson regression by conditioning on the total number of failures. We show that the case-crossover design is somewhat more generally applicable than Poisson regression. Stratification in the case-crossover design is analogous to Poisson regression with dummy variables, or to a marked Poisson regression. Poisson regression makes it possible to express case-crossover likelihood functions as multinomial likelihoods without making reference to cases, controls, or matching. This derivation avoids the counterintuitive notion of basing inferences on exposures that occur post-failure.     

Improving The Efficiency of The Case-Crossover Design

The case-crossover design has been used by many researchers to study the transient effect of an exposure on the risk of a rare outcome. In a case-crossover design, only cases are sampled and each case will act as his/her own control. The time of failure acts as the case and non failure times act as the controls. Case-crossover designs have frequently been used to study the effect of environmental exposures on rare diseases or mortality. Time trends and seasonal confounding may be present in environmental studies and thus need to be controlled for by the sampling design. Several sampling methods are available for this purpose. In time-stratified sampling, disjoint strata of equal size are formed and the control times within the case stratum are used for comparison. The random semi-symmetric sampling design randomly selects a control time for comparison from two possible control times. The fixed semi-symmetric sampling design is a modified version of the random semi-symmetric sampling design that removes the random selection. Simulations show that the fixed semi-symmetric sampling design improves the variance of the random semi-symmetric sampling estimator by at least 35% for the exposures we studied. We derive expressions for the asymptotic variance of risk estimators for these designs, and show, that while the designs are not theoretically equivalent, in many realistic situations, the random semi-symmetric sampling design has similar efficiency to a time-stratified sampling design of size two and the fixed semi-symmetric sampling design has similar efficiency to a time-stratified sampling design of size three.     

Robustness of bayesian factor analysis estimates

This paper presents the result of a study of the robustness of posterior estimators of the factor loading matrix, the factor scores, and the disturbance covariance matrix (the main model parameters) in a Bayesian factor analysis with respect to variations in the values of the parameters of their prior distributions (the hyperparameter). We adopt the ε - contamination model of Berger and Berliner(1986) to generate prior distributions whose hyper-paramters reflects small variations in the elements of the uncontaminated hyperparameters, and we use directional derivatives to examine the variation of the uncontaminated estimators with respect to changes in the values of the hyperparameters, in the directions of the main model parameters. Several matrix norms are used to measure the closeness of the resulting values. We illustrate the results with a numerical example.