Information Sharing in a Manufacturer–Supplier Relationship: Suppliers' Incentive and Production Efficiency

While there have been vast discussions on the materialistic benefits of continuous improvement from the Toyota and Honda experiences, the academic literature pays little attention to information sharing. In this study, we construct a dynamic adverse selection model in which the supplier privately observes her production efficiency, and in the contractual duration the manufacturer obtains an informative but imprecise signal regarding this private efficiency. We show that despite the disclosure of proprietary information, information sharing may benefit the supplier; the supplier's voluntary participation is more likely to occur when the shared information is rather imprecise. On the other hand, our analysis also reveals that this information sharing unambiguously gives rise to an upward push of the production quantity, and may sometimes lead to an upward distortion that ultimately hurts the supply chain. We also document the non‐trivial impact of the timing of information sharing on the supplier's incentive to participate.     

社会保险经办服务体系改革：机构定位与政策建议

以探讨构建服务型政府形势下社保经办服务体系改革思路为研究目的。通过实证分析方法,分析了当前社保经办服务建设能力不足和管理体制散乱的突出问题;借鉴国际经验,提出加强顶层设计,结合事业单位分类改革,重塑社保公共服务体系的思路。     

传统中国画的意境美对现代景观设计的启示

立足于传统中国画的意境美研究,通过总结其含蓄、空灵、诗情画意的意境特点,分析其对于古典园林景观设计的借鉴作用,并且进一步基于时代的视角挖掘中国画的意境美,指出还原本真和以景诉情两大重要特点,试图探索新时代下,中国画的意境美对于现代景观设计的启示和借鉴作用。     

Distribution of the two‐sample t‐test statistic following blinded sample size re‐estimation

We consider the blinded sample size re‐estimation based on the simple one‐sample variance estimator at an interim analysis. We characterize the exact distribution of the standard two‐sample t‐test statistic at the final analysis. We describe a simulation algorithm for the evaluation of the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis at given treatment effect. We compare the blinded sample size re‐estimation method with two unblinded methods with respect to the empirical type I error, the empirical power, and the empirical distribution of the standard deviation estimator and final sample size. We characterize the type I error inflation across the range of standardized non‐inferiority margin for non‐inferiority trials, and derive the adjusted significance level to ensure type I error control for given sample size of the internal pilot study. We show that the adjusted significance level increases as the sample size of the internal pilot study increases. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Symmetrical Design of Experiment in Global Sensitivity Analysis Based on ANOVA High-dimensional Model Representation

This article reviews symmetrical global sensitivity analysis based on the analysis of variance of high-dimensional model representation. To overcome the computational difficulties and explore the use of symmetrical design of experiment (SDOE), two methods are presented. If the form of the objective function f is known, we use SDOE to estimate the symmetrical global sensitivity indices instead of Monte Carlo or quasi-Monte Carlo simulation. Otherwise, we use the observed values of the experiment to do symmetrical global sensitivity analysis. These methods are easy to implement and can reduce the computational cost. An example is given by symmetrical design of experiment.     

Understanding Estimators of Treatment Effects in Regression Discontinuity Designs

In this paper, we propose two new estimators of treatment effects in regression discontinuity designs. These estimators can aid understanding of the existing estimators such as the local polynomial estimator and the partially linear estimator. The first estimator is the partially polynomial estimator which extends the partially linear estimator by further incorporating derivative differences of the conditional mean of the outcome on the two sides of the discontinuity point. This estimator is related to the local polynomial estimator by a relocalization effect. Unlike the partially linear estimator, this estimator can achieve the optimal rate of convergence even under broader regularity conditions. The second estimator is an instrumental variable estimator in the fuzzy design. This estimator will reduce to the local polynomial estimator if higher order endogeneities are neglected. We study the asymptotic properties of these two estimators and conduct simulation studies to confirm the theoretical analysis.     

装置艺术在幼儿园环境创设中的应用探究

装置艺术是现代艺术的一个重要种类,其实质是“场地+材料+情感”的综合展示。幼儿园环境创设中可运用装置艺术,引导幼儿将生活中各种熟悉的材料进行拼贴组合、错置、悬空、分割、集合、叠加,以形成构成环境的装置作品。在此过程中,幼儿是创作环境的本体或参与者,主动参与改造环境,自由地取舍材料以丰富其创造性空间,从艺术陈列的视角对环境进行审美观照,从而提高幼儿的审美修养,激发幼儿的想象力、创造力,美化幼儿园的教学和生活环境,促进幼儿身心发展。     

Indirect membership function assignment based on ordinal regression

In many fuzzy sets applications, fuzzy membership functions are commonly developed based on empirical or expert knowledge. The equation of a membership function is usually determined somewhat arbitrarily. This paper explores a novel membership function design method based on ordinal regression analysis. The estimated thresholds between ordinal measurement categories are applied to calculate the intersection points between fuzzy sets. These intersection points are further applied to determine the equations of the membership functions. Information distortion due to empirical guess can thus be reduced and more latent information in the fuzzy responses can therefore be captured. A case study investigating the relationship between foster mothers’ satisfaction and the foster time and information provided has been conducted in this research. The applicability and effectiveness of the proposed membership function assignment approach have been demonstrated through several case studies.     

基于Web的远程教学管理系统的设计及实现

远程教学管理系统是进行远程教学的重要保证,利用它可以合理地调配教学资源、组织教学活动、总结教学数据,并有效地对远程学习中心实行业务指导和监控,保证教与学过程管理的时效。本文结合北京邮电大学网络教育学院学生管理的需求,分析了远程教学管理系统的设计及实现方案,利用www上的应用系统,实现了跨平台的、灵活的、通用的远程教学管理系统。     

内部控制环境理论研究

控制环境是内部控制框架的重要组成部分,它是在基于对内部控制局限充分认识的基础上逐步提出,并随着内部控制实践和研究的深入而不断发展的.控制环境理论研究主要包括控制环境范围、要素、及其在内部控制中的作用,以及内部控制中"人"与"制度"的互动关系等方面的内容.重视控制环境理论研究,对更新内部控制观念、统一内部控制标准以及从控制环境着手强化内部控制建设等,都具有十分重要的现实意义.