杂合灰色聚类与变精度粗糙模糊集的概率决策方法及应用

在基于粗糙集理论或扩展粗糙集理论的不确定性决策中,仅由数据集无法获得决策表,同时由于决策属性呈现模糊性,以致于难以获取概率决策规则。针对这一类决策问题,基于灰色定权聚类与优势粗糙集变精度方法,本文构建了一种的杂合决策方法。该方法首先利用中心点三角白化权函数的灰色定权聚类方法将包含不同量纲指标的知识表示系统生成多属性决策表,而后运用变精度粗糙模糊集进行决策分析,生成概率决策规则,最后以区域关键技术的选择为例,表明该模型的可行性与实用性。     

Distribution lot-sizing models for arborescent supply chains with discrete-period variable demand

This study formulates a novel mixed-integer programming lot-sizing model for arborescent supply chains with discrete-period variable demand and then develops an efficient two-phase heuristic method, in which a combined multi-period demand ordering policy, rather than the lot-for-lot ordering policy usually assumed in previous papers, is adopted. Two important properties are introduced and used to obtain a better initial feasible solution. The good performance of the proposed heuristic method is verified through a comparison with the optimal solution method. It is also shown that the performance of the proposed combined multi-period demand ordering method is superior to that of the lot-for-lot ordering method. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to explore the impacts of changing the values of relevant parameters on the total supply chain cost, the total number of orders and the total number of opened members. Finally, a well-known logistics company in Taiwan is chosen to demonstrate the excellent performance and the aptness of the proposed ordering method.     

Universal equation for the relative change in profit of manufacturing company

In contemporary conditions of the company's business operations, where high dynamics of costs, sales volume and change of production programme is present, it is of crucial importance to investigate their effects on the change of profit. Starting from cost–volume–profit equation, the aim is to arrive at a universal equation that will simultaneously measure a relative change in profit for a number of products, not only under the influence of change in sales volume but also of other relevant variables, such as sales price, fixed and variable costs. The basic hypothesis is that it is possible to establish in a form of universal equation the dependence between the change in profit and change in influential variables. In this investigation, first it was observed the partial influence of some variables on the change in profit and their dependence was determined for a single product, and then for more than one product. Finally, by summing up all those effects, a universal equation of profit change was obtained. The derived universal equation for the relative change in profit along with simultaneous effects of several variables makes possible for the company management to more simply determine the profit for diverse conditions of business operations. The universal equation for the relative change in profit was applied in one company and the results obtained confirm its significance.     

A Test for Instrument Validity

This paper develops a specification test for instrument validity in the heterogeneous treatment effect model with a binary treatment and a discrete instrument. The strongest testable implication for instrument validity is given by the condition for nonnegativity of point‐identifiable compliers' outcome densities. Our specification test infers this testable implication using a variance‐weighted Kolmogorov–Smirnov test statistic. The test can be applied to both discrete and continuous outcome cases, and an extension of the test to settings with conditioning covariates is provided.     

Estimation of Nonparametric Models With Simultaneity

We introduce methods for estimating nonparametric, nonadditive models with simultaneity. The methods are developed by directly connecting the elements of the structural system to be estimated with features of the density of the observable variables, such as ratios of derivatives or averages of products of derivatives of this density. The estimators are therefore easily computed functionals of a nonparametric estimator of the density of the observable variables. We consider in detail a model where to each structural equation there corresponds an exclusive regressor and a model with one equation of interest and one instrument that is included in a second equation. For both models, we provide new characterizations of observational equivalence on a set, in terms of the density of the observable variables and derivatives of the structural functions. Based on those characterizations, we develop two estimation methods. In the first method, the estimators of the structural derivatives are calculated by a simple matrix inversion and matrix multiplication, analogous to a standard least squares estimator, but with the elements of the matrices being averages of products of derivatives of nonparametric density estimators. In the second method, the estimators of the structural derivatives are calculated in two steps. In a first step, values of the instrument are found at which the density of the observable variables satisfies some properties. In the second step, the estimators are calculated directly from the values of derivatives of the density of the observable variables evaluated at the found values of the instrument. We show that both pointwise estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal.     

基于零膨胀分位数两部模型的银行贷款违约预测研究

贷款信用风险评估是银行风控的重要内容。贷款逾期天数作为常见的风险度量指标,具有典型的零膨胀特征。对于零膨胀数据,传统的线性回归不再适用,两部模型是常用的代表方法。考虑到贷款数据具有偏态分布特征,本文构建了一个分位数两部模型—logit-quantile模型。该模型由Logistic回归和分位数回归构成,为了进行风险因素的选择,在模型的两个回归中添加了Lasso惩罚。为了求解模型,本文采用了坐标下降法和线性规划法相结合的迭代算法。模拟分析显示,对比逐步法和常用的logit-linear两部模型,新模型表现出了最好的变量选择效果,尤其在零膨胀比例为80%及高维情形时,该模型的表现仍然最优。最后对某银行的贷款数据实证分析显示,新模型具有更精简的结构,采用交叉验证技术进行预测显示新模型的预测和分类表现最好。     

生育行动释析

利用理解社会学的原理和方法并综合已有的研究成果，对生育行动类型进行划分和阐述，并试图在社会学理论和人口学的经验分析之间筑建一道便利的桥梁。     

“仪器分析”课程教学改革探索

为了提高教学效果，培养学生的综合运用知识能力，结合课程学时相对较少的实际情况，扩大课堂信息量，解决现用教科书与科技发展脱节的矛盾，锻炼学生独立分析问题和解决问题的能力，要注重对课程内容、教学手段和教学方法进行改革和探索，以达到良好的教学效果。     

Bayesian semiparametric inference for the accelerated failure-time model

Bayesian semiparametric inference is considered for a loglinear model. This model consists of a parametric component for the regression coefficients and a nonparametric component for the unknown error distribution. Bayesian analysis is studied for the case of a parametric prior on the regression coefficients and a mixture-of-Dirichlet-processes prior on the unknown error distribution. A Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is developed to compute the features of the posterior distribution. A model selection method for obtaining a more parsimonious set of predictors is studied. The method adds indicator variables to the regression equation. The set of indicator variables represents all the possible subsets to be considered. A MCMC method is developed to search stochastically for the best subset. These procedures are applied to two examples, one with censored data.     

Variable selection in partial linear regression with functional covariate

The problem of variable selection is considered in high-dimensional partial linear regression under some model allowing for possibly functional variable. The procedure studied is that of nonconcave-penalized least squares. It is shown the existence of a √n/s_n-consistent estimator for the vector of p_n linear parameters in the model, even when p_n tends to ∞ as the sample size n increases (s_n denotes the number of influential variables). An oracle property is also obtained for the variable selection method, and the nonparametric rate of convergence is stated for the estimator of the nonlinear functional component of the model. Finally, a simulation study illustrates the finite sample size performance of our procedure.