Non-parametric estimation of reciprocal coordinate subtangent for right censored dependent scheme

The concept of reciprocal coordinate subtangent (RCST) has been used as a useful tool to study the monotone behavior of a continuous density function and for characterizing probability distributions. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric estimator for RCST based on the censored dependent data. Asymptotic properties of the estimator are established under suitable regularity conditions. A simulation study is carried out to examine the performance of the estimator. The usefulness of the estimator is also examined through a real data.     

FEPA-金融时间序列自适应组合预测模型

本文报告一种金融时间序列预测的信号分析、信息融合与智能计算组合模型,简称FEPA,由针对金融时间序列（FTS）信号分析的经验模态分解（EMD）、用于数据降维的主成分分析（PCA）和用于非线性建模的人工神经网络（ANN）三部分组成。该模型首先应用滑动窗口截取原始金融时间序列最近期数据集,应用EMD分解算法把数据集分解成不同尺度的本征模态函数（IMF）,然后通过主成分分析将分解后的数据降维,提取最有信息量的特征;然后将这些特征输入到神经网络进行组合预测。本文提出的组合预测模型FEPA是基于分解-提优-合成的信息融合思想,有效提高了预测可靠性。其创新点在于：1）首次给出了EMD算法的结构化表达,提供了今后融合更多信息的算法接口;2）通过多步长预测输出深入研究EMD分解的有效信息结构;3）通过切换到更细时间框架来处理EMD的端点效应,并探索了两级时间框架下的预测效果;4）给出了金融时间序列组合预测模型的一般性架构,具有可升级性和可扩展性。并且通过滑动窗口EMD使得实证更能切近实际。通过在沪深300股指和澳大利亚股指上的实证,结果表明FEPA预测模型在沪深300股指日线和15分钟线上的预测命中率高达78%和82%,在澳大利亚股指日线上也达到了74%的命中率,经比较,明显高于文献中常见的5种模型。     

高校实施ISO9000标准的若干问题探讨

ISO9000族标准是国际标准化组织颁布的世界通用的质量管理标准。目前,国内一些高等学校开始按照ISO9000标准建立质量管理体系。电子科技大学中山学院在这种背景下,在全院范围内推行ISO9000质量管理体系。在这一过程中,产生了一些值得探讨的问题,出现了一些实际操作的难点,现提出来与大家共同探讨。     

福建经济若干统计特征及发展趋势

选取福建省．1983年以来经济部分指标进行了统计分析。描述了一些指标的变化规律,划分了经济发展的阶段,采用新方法预测了2006年和2007年的经济指标,进而得出若干启示和分析结论。     

Recruiting,engaging, and educating social work leaders: an innovative curricular model

Graduate social work student interest in administration or management studies has been low in comparison to their interest in clinical practice. Recruiting graduate students to administration or management specializations in social work education remains a challenge for social work programs. Recognizing the need to attract and prepare MSW students for administration, various curriculum models have been proposed. This study presents a unique model that was designed specifically for social work students who wanted to become competent clinical practitioners, yet were also interested in macropractice. By marketing to, and recruiting, graduate students who have a passion for the dual (macro and micro) focus of social work, the administration specialization in this large, US-based urban graduate social work program has been able to attract over 120 additional students each year, comprising nearly 24% of the graduating class. This qualitative study examined students’ rationale for selecting this specialization, their experiences in the program and their suggestions for improvement. Implications for other graduate social work programs are highlighted.     

实物资金流量表的预测方法研究

资金流量表是国民经济核算体系中的重要组成部分。然而,由于在编制过程中需要采集大量的数据,通常情况下,很多国家的资金流量表都会有较长时间的滞后。在编制实物资金流量表的延长表时,已有方法通常是基于基期与预测期交易收支结构保持不变的假定条件。然而,经济结构发生显著变化时,该类方法就会失效。基于上述问题,研究弱化模型的假设条件,并提出了新的实物资金流量表预测方法( 简称 FPTF方法)。根据表中元素必须满足的约束条件,该方法通过建立数学模型解除约束,其次基于历史数据的动态趋势,采用适当的时间序列分析方法来预测目标年份的实物资金流量表。通过仿真分析,验证了所提方法的有效性和稳定性。此外,基于中国1992年～2014 年的实物资金流量表数据进行实例分析,取得了满意的分析结果。     

Barriers to Integrated Treatment of Substance Abuse and Trauma Among Women

Despite increasing empirical support for an integrated approach to treating trauma and substance abuse, many substance abuse treatment programs have been slow to embrace integrated models of practice. Using an embedded case study design, the purpose of this study was to understand barriers that prevented a substance abuse treatment provider and 20 professionals and staff from adopting an integrated approach to treating substance abuse and trauma. Data analysis revealed 2 kinds of barriers that prevented substance abuse treatment professionals from fully integrating substance abuse and trauma: systemic and professional barriers. These barriers have to be taken into account when trying to move providers and professionals toward integrated approaches to treating substance abuse and trauma.     

新型城镇化背景下产城人融合的模式探索——以佛山为例

本文从国内外新型城镇化发展趋势及背景着手,以制造业名城佛山为例,分析历年来佛山城市定位和产城人融合战略的演进,并在实践中探索"1+2+5+X"城市组团模式下人与自然生态、文化科技和谐酿成的三湖模式、佛山新城模式等成功做法,揭示了产城人融合的科学选择。     

A copula-based Markov chain model for the analysis of binary longitudinal data

A fully parametric first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) model is proposed to analyse binary longitudinal data. By using a discretized version of a copula, the modelling approach allows one to construct separate models for the marginal response and for the dependence between adjacent responses. In particular, the transition model that is focused on discretizes the Gaussian copula in such a way that the marginal is a Bernoulli distribution. A probit link is used to take into account concomitant information in the behaviour of the underlying marginal distribution. Fixed and time-varying covariates can be included in the model. The method is simple and is a natural extension of the AR(1) model for Gaussian series. Since the approach put forward is likelihood-based, it allows interpretations and inferences to be made that are not possible with semi-parametric approaches such as those based on generalized estimating equations. Data from a study designed to reduce the exposure of children to the sun are used to illustrate the methods.