Stochastic Counterfactual Risk Analysis for the Vulnerability Assessment of Cyber‐Physical Attacks on Electricity Distribution Infrastructure Networks

In December 2015, a cyber‐physical attack took place on the Ukrainian electricity distribution network. This is regarded as one of the first cyber‐physical attacks on electricity infrastructure to have led to a substantial power outage and is illustrative of the increasing vulnerability of Critical National Infrastructure to this type of malicious activity. Few data points, coupled with the rapid emergence of cyber phenomena, has held back the development of resilience analytics of cyber‐physical attacks, relative to many other threats. We propose to overcome data limitations by applying stochastic counterfactual risk analysis as part of a new vulnerability assessment framework. The method is developed in the context of the direct and indirect socioeconomic impacts of a Ukrainian‐style cyber‐physical attack taking place on the electricity distribution network serving London and its surrounding regions. A key finding is that if decision‐makers wish to mitigate major population disruptions, then they must invest resources more‐or‐less equally across all substations, to prevent the scaling of a cyber‐physical attack. However, there are some substations associated with higher economic value due to their support of other Critical National Infrastructures assets, which justifies the allocation of additional cyber security investment to reduce the chance of cascading failure. Further cyber‐physical vulnerability research must address the tradeoffs inherent in a system made up of multiple institutions with different strategic risk mitigation objectives and metrics of value, such as governments, infrastructure operators, and commercial consumers of infrastructure services.     

A Systems‐Based Risk Assessment Framework for Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) on Critical Infrastructures

Modern infrastructures are becoming increasingly dependent on electronic systems, leaving them more vulnerable to electrical surges or electromagnetic interference. Electromagnetic disturbances appear in nature, e.g., lightning and solar wind; however, they may also be generated by man‐made technology to maliciously damage or disturb electronic equipment. This article presents a systematic risk assessment framework for identifying possible, consequential, and plausible intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI) attacks on an arbitrary distribution network infrastructure. In the absence of available data on IEMI occurrences, we find that a systems‐based risk assessment is more useful than a probabilistic approach. We therefore modify the often applied definition of risk, i.e., a set of triplets containing scenario, probability, and consequence, to a set of quadruplets: scenario, resource requirements, plausibility, and consequence. Probability is “replaced” by resource requirements and plausibility, where the former is the minimum amount and type of equipment necessary to successfully carry out an attack scenario and the latter is a subjective assessment of the extent of the existence of attackers who possess the motivation, knowledge, and resources necessary to carry out the scenario. We apply the concept of intrusion areas and classify electromagnetic source technology according to key attributes. Worst‐case scenarios are identified for different quantities of attacker resources. The most plausible and consequential of these are deemed the most important scenarios and should provide useful decision support in a countermeasures effort. Finally, an example of the proposed risk assessment framework, based on notional data, is provided on a hypothetical water distribution network.     

技术何以决定人之本质

技术是生产力,但不仅仅是生产力;技术是实践活动展开的基础,处于主体与客观世界的中介地位,支持着实践目的的有效实现.人类依靠技术途径与仪器工具系统的支持,超越了自然物种的限制.以技术创新与推广应用为基础的人的新进化,不仅弥补了人类天赋本能方面的种种欠缺,而且也使人类的后天才能迅速提升,日渐成为一种技术"超人"和自然界的"霸主".技术在人类目的性活动过程中发挥着不可替代的作用,并因此决定人之本质.     

基于身份的强指定验证者签名的安全分析

针对基于身份的强指定验证者签名方案是不可授权的结论和基于身份的指定验证者代理签名方案设计,对两个方案进行安全性分析,首先证明了基于身份的指定验证者方案的签名是可授权的,然后证明了基于身份的指定验证者代理签名方案的签名是可伪造的,说明基于身份的强指定验证者签名方案的结论是不安全的;而基于身份的指定验证者代理签名方案的设计是不合理的。     

现象学的意向性对象与文学思想

现象学是关于“纯粹意识现象”的学问,但是这种“纯粹意识现象”是一种意向性对象。现象学以这种意向性对象来反对西方传统形而上学的二元对立的思维方法。这种关于意向性对象的观点在哲学本体论上是主观唯心主义的,但是,以这种现象学的意向性对象来分析文学艺术作品和文学艺术的创作和欣赏,却是一种揭示了文学艺术活动的审美主体性和主客体统一性的文学理论。     

论三国时期交州的战略地位和攻守形势

三国时期的割据和战争使地处南陲的交州凸显出不同于其他时期的特殊战略意义。为此,吴、蜀以及魏、晋等围绕交州展开了数十年的较量。而交州地区形势的发展变化与各政权势力的此消彼长、整个国家的分裂聚合均有着密不可分的关系。     

传统是推动文学发展的根本动力--论新批评的文学史观

长期以来,理论界几乎形成了一种共识,即认为新批评仅擅长共时研究而欠缺历史观念,其实这是不符合实际的。新批评派主要有两种类型:一类是专注于对诗进行细读;另一类以艾略特和韦勒克为代表,具有较明显的文学史意识。艾略特认为传统是推动文学发展的根本动力,文学史的评价标准是“外部权威”。韦勒克则主张文学批评、文学史与文学理论三者相结合。维姆萨特与比尔兹利的理论也间接地涉及文学史问题。但新批评文学史模式在竭力维护文本中心论的同时却不可避免地走向了另一种片面,殊为可惜。     

辛伐他汀治疗老年人短暂脑缺血发作疗效观察

目的研究辛伐他汀治疗老年人短暂脑缺血发作(TIA)的疗效,为临床诊疗提供依据。方法选择2008年5月至2010年2月本院门诊就诊的98例60岁以上的TIA患者,分为治疗组与对照组给予阿司匹林肠溶片治疗;治疗组加用辛伐他汀片,治疗4周为1个疗程。结果治疗组治疗后无发作,症状好转,发作次数明显减少均优于对照组,两组比较有统计学意义(P<0·01)。结论辛伐他汀治疗老年人短暂脑缺血发作疗效显著,值得推广。     

论新兴媒体冲击下高校宣传工作的创新

在新兴媒体的冲击之下,高校传统的新闻宣传工作的实效逐渐被削弱。为此,文章提出了转移高校新闻宣传工作重心、确立人人为宣传的工作格局和与时俱进的媒体选择策略以及充分利用互联网、挖掘免费网络资源、开发校园短信新闻系统、充分利用车载媒体和户外媒体等广告宣传载体、积极拓展宣传渠道等对策,从而促进高校新闻宣传工作实效的提高,以适应高校飞速发展的需要。