中国海外投资保险法律制度的构建

在对两种类型的海外投资保险制度进行全面法理分析的基础上,阐述了建立中国海外投资保险制度应遵循的原则,并对中国海外投资保险制度的构建提出了具体设议。     

外国直接投资、产业转移与母国就业传导机制的实证研究

采用格兰杰因果分析和误差修正模型,基于中日数据分析了FDI、产业转移与母国就业之间的关系。经过实证检验发现:当日本对华直接投资时,转移了其国内的制造业产业,输出了制造业就业岗位,但是由于服务业对制造业的替代弹性大于1,使得日本对华直接投资在总量上增加了就业机会,在结构上促进了日本国内就业结构优化。     

基于养老金入市的中国通胀指数债券定价与模拟

随着我国人口老龄化程度的不断加剧和养老金缺口的不断扩大,以及通货膨胀上行的压力,养老基金如何投资实现保值增值已经成为关系国家发展和社会稳定的重要课题。在此背景下本文构建了一个两因子连续时间定价模型,求解出风险中性测度下通胀指数债券的理论价格,并通过数值模拟分析了通胀指数债券对通货膨胀的抵御作用,以及名义利率、通货膨胀率、波动率和债券期限等因素对通胀指数债券价格的影响。研究表明：通胀指数债券价格与通货膨胀率、波动率正相关,与利率负相关,且波动率对通胀指数债券的影响系数要大于通货膨胀率,更大于利率;当预期通货膨胀率高于利率时,通胀指数债券会溢价发行,而且期限越长价格越高。本文的研究为养老基金多元化投资规避通胀风险、实现保值增值提供了可能,也为国家推进金融衍生工具的创新提供依据。     

Paternity Leave‐Taking and Father Engagement

Evidence suggests that paternity leave‐taking is associated with higher levels of father involvement, but research has been limited in its focus on cross‐sectional analyses and indicators of father involvement used. This study uses national longitudinal data to examine whether paternity leave‐taking is associated with 2 indicators of father engagement when children are infants, whether paternity leave‐taking is associated with trajectories of father engagement during the first few years of a child's life, and whether the relationships between paternity leave and father engagement are explained by fathering commitments and attitudes. The results suggest that longer periods of leave are associated with more frequent engagement in developmental tasks and caretaking when children are infants as well as during the first few years of children's lives. There is also evidence that father attitudes partially explain the relationships between length of paternity leave and father engagement.     

Vocational or academic track? Study and career plans among Swedish students living in rural areas

This ethnographic study explores how rural lower secondary school students reflect on study and career choices, focusing on the choice between vocational and academic upper secondary programs. Applying a spatial perspective, we analyze individual students’ reflections about study and career choices within a variety of rural regions, and compare patterns in the regions. The results indicate complex interactions between structural factors and individual dispositions. In places where education levels were low and the local labor market predominantly offered unskilled manual and service work, there was a stronger tendency to choose vocational programs than in places with higher education levels and access to a more varied labor market. Likewise, there was an association between strongly gendered labor markets and gender-typical choices. However, individual students positioned themselves actively in relation to the local place, its local labor market and social relations; their choices were place-bound to varying degrees, and chose upper secondary programs and presented ideas about prospective careers that were harmonious with the local labor market in some cases, but discordant in other cases. The results are discussed in the framework of individuals’ horizon for actions.     

Support for new mothers and fertility in the United Kingdom: Not all support is equal in the decision to have a second child

Low fertility across Europe highlights the need to understand reproductive decisions in high-income countries better. Availability of support may be one factor influencing reproductive decisions, though within high-income countries availability varies between environments, including socio-economic environments. We test whether receiving higher levels of support, from different sources (informal and formal) and of different types (practical and emotional), is positively correlated with second births in the United Kingdom (UK) Millennium Cohort Study, and whether these relationships differ by socio-economic position (SEP). Our hypothesis is only partially supported: receiving emotional support correlates with higher likelihood of second birth, but the opposite is true for practical support. Availability of different types of support varies across SEP, but relationships between support and fertility are similar, with one exception: kin-provided childcare increases the likelihood of birth only among lower-SEP women. Our results highlight that not all support is equal in the decision to have a second child.     

The “ugly” face of social investment? The politics of childcare in Central and Eastern Europe

In this article, we aim to understand the development dynamics of a specific area of social investment (SI), that is, childcare policies, in the context of postcommunist politics and the recent right-wing turn that took place in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. This article identifies varieties of channels for promoting SI. First, in taking the perspective of the “mixed economy of welfare,” we argue that attempts made to introduce elements of SI to the childcare policies involved various leading roles available for either the private sector or state/public domain. Second, it is important to distinguish between implicit/unintended and explicit/intended projects both in relation to cases in which SI strategy is applied via marketization/privatization and when it involves a government-led project. Third, we take into account the politics of SI implementation that might involve applying certain principles central to policy concepts (such as “investment”) in justifying policy instruments incompatible with original ideas. Although arguments about SI have been extensively used by Eastern European leaders, their goal has been to justify welfare reforms that were implicitly or explicitly directed towards the middle class while excluding the “nondeserving” often based on ethnic identity. We characterize Poland as a case of “implicit marketization,” the Czech Republic as a case of “explicit privatization,” and the Hungarian version of SI as a case of “explicit public dualization.” In this, we show that in some cases, the implementation of SI approaches by right-wing populist parties might rear its “ugly” head.     

借鉴外国有益经验加快我国投资体制改革

完善投资体制是适应社会主义市场经济发展的必然要求。建国以来我国的投资体制伴随着经济体制改革地进行而不断发展,虽取得成效,但制约投资体制改革的体制障碍尚没有完全消除,一些地方政府仍较多地依靠行政力量干预投资,投资管理体系、相应法制不健全,中介机构滞后等。针对这些问题,有必要借鉴外国有益经验对投资体制改革方面问题作更进一步的思考。     

不确定需求下考虑大数据投资决策的供应链鲁棒优化及协调模型

针对由数据公司、制造商和零售商组成的三级供应链系统,在仅知需求均值和方差信息下,建立了集中和分散两种决策情况下的供应链鲁棒优化模型。集中决策下,全体供应链成员共同决定产品零售价和产品生产数量;分散决策下,数据公司作为主方,决定需求信息零售价,制造商和零售商作为从方,分别决定产品批发价和产品订货数量。针对两种决策下的供应链鲁棒优化模型,给出了相应的最优决策,分析了大数据投资成本、消费者异质性需求满足程度等系统参数对供应链决策的影响。进一步,设计了能实现三级供应链完美协调的利润共享契约。最后,通过数值算例验证了所建模型和契约协调的有效性。研究表明,在集中和分散决策下,大数据投资成本只有在满足一定条件下,投资大数据才有利于供应链成员及系统利润的改善。特别地,与无协调时的情况相比,虽然协调机制下相关系统参数对供应链成员决策及利润绩效的作用机制存在差异,但文中提出的利润共享契约在一定条件下能够显著改进供应链成员利润且实现供应链完美协调。     

西部大开发中引入BOT投资方式的社会环境探析

20世纪90年代未以来,BOT投融资方式参与西部基础设施建设在西部逐渐兴起,几乎西部十二个省区均有BOT项目引入,一定程度缓解了政府主渠道投资不足的压力,为西部大开发做出了积极的贡献。然而,由于西部投资社会环境总体较差,投资者在西部投资后的盈利可能和经济安全相对缺乏保障,故西部目前的BOT项目仍然面临多重问题的困扰。为此,有必要大力改善西部BOT投资社会环境,使BOT项目能更好地为西部大开发服务。