晚清地方政府社会管理职能的变迁——以重庆消防管理为视角

晚清地方政府社会管理职能经历了从一体管理到合作管理,再到专职管理的变迁,这两次转变过程反映了地方政府在社会管理中扮演领导者的角色,有不可替代性;亦反映了从传统社会向现代社会过渡中地方政府自身存在的矛盾性与不平衡性。从政府管理职能角度来探讨传统社会现代化变迁的研究较为薄弱,而其中鲜以个案城市为切入点。以重庆消防管理为视角研究晚清地方政府社会管理职能的变迁,可以从一个侧面反映出中国社会从传统到现代的艰难转型历程。     

Principal point classification: Applications to differentiating drug and placebo responses in longitudinal studies

Principal points are cluster means for theoretical distributions. A discriminant methodology based on principal points is introduced. The principal point classification method is useful in clinical trials where the goal is to distinguish and differentiate between different treatment effects. Particularly, in psychiatric studies where placebo response rates can be very high, the principal point classification is illustrated to distinguish specific drug responders from non-specific placebo responders.     

Improved attribute acceptance sampling plans based on maxima nomination sampling

This paper demonstrates the use of maxima nomination sampling (MNS) technique in design and evaluation of single AQL, LTPD, and EQL acceptance sampling plans for attributes. We exploit the effect of sample size and acceptance number on the performance of our proposed MNS plans using operating characteristic (OC) curve. Among other results, we show that MNS acceptance sampling plans with smaller sample size and bigger acceptance number perform better than commonly used acceptance sampling plans for attributes based on simple random sampling (SRS) technique. Indeed, MNS acceptance sampling plans result in OC curves which, compared to their SRS counterparts, are much closer to the ideal OC curve. A computer program is designed which can be used to specify the optimum MNS acceptance sampling plan and to show, visually, how the shape of the OC curve changes when parameters of the acceptance sampling plan vary. Theoretical results and numerical evaluations are given.     

客观评价教学实习成绩

本文不仅从“教”方而且从“学”方视角，对教学实习成绩进行多级综合评价量化处理，建立一整套客观评定教学实习成绩系统。     

面向链路状态信息的路由算法LSDSR

提出一种WA mesh网络组网方式,将WALN技术与Ad hoc技术相结合,充分发挥二者的优势。针对WA mesh需要高性能路由算法,提出一种基于链路状态信息的改进路由算法LSDSR。分析表明WA mesh网络不仅具备WLAN网络成本低、吞吐量高、通信可靠的特点,还具备Ad hoc网络的高移动性、高灵活性、高抗毁性的特点。LSDSR路由算法能够减少路由中断的几率,减少网络中洪泛信息的出现,不仅改善了路由发现时间和链路负载,而且改善了路由请求信息和丢包率,提升了网络的效率,对链路的延迟、网络确认控制方面也有更良好的表现。     

乡土知识不可忘记——从几件小事说起

乡土知识是一方地域的民众用生活经历谱写的历史或用生活经验创造的文化,地方志在记录这些经验和智慧方面起着重要作用.乡土知识应该深入挖掘、规范整理.乡土知识来自一个民族数代人的传承与沿袭,其中蕴含着许多科学合理的成分,是人类生存发展的宝贵财富,具有独特的魅力.     

Parallel tempering for dynamic generalized linear models

ABSTRACT

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods can be used for statistical inference. The methods are time-consuming due to time-vary. To resolve these problems, parallel tempering (PT), as a parallel MCMC method, is tried, for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs), as well as the several optimal properties of our proposed method. In PT, two or more samples are drawn at the same time, and samples can exchange information with each other. We also present some simulations of the DGLMs in the case and provide two applications of Poisson-type DGLMs in financial research.     

Pseudo-bayes estimation of multinomial proportions

In the simultaneous estimation of multinomial proportions, two estimators are developed which incorporate prior means and a prior parameter which reflects the accuracy of the prior means. These estimators possess substantially smaller risk than the standard estimator in a region of the parameter space and are much more robust than the conjugate Bayes estimator with respect to parameter values far from the prior mean. When vague prior information is available, these estimators and confidence regions derived from them appear to be attractive alternatives to the procedures based on the standard estimator.     

Tests for Cointegration Breakdown Over a Short Time Period

We derive a speculative trading model with endogenous informed trading that yields a conditionally heteroscedastic time series for trading volume and the squared price changes. We use half-hourly price-change and volume data for IBM during 1988 to test the model and estimate the structural parameters using the simulated method-of-moments estimation procedure. Although the model seems to do a reasonable job fitting the unconditional moments of the volume and the squared price change processes, it fares less well in fitting the relation between current trading volume and lags of trading volume and squared volume's (and its lag's) relation to squared price changes.     

Estimation of Location Parameters Under Nonnormal Errors and Quadratic Loss

Assuming a statistical model in which the joint distribution of the unobservable errors is drawn from independent univariate Student t's that are identically and symmetrically distributed, the sampling performance of traditional robust estimators and a family of Stein-like estimators are compared and evaluated. These results suggest that under thick-tailed distributions, the relative sampling performances and risk characteristics for a range of nonconventional Stein estimators remains approximately the same as in the case of their normal counterparts. The empirical risk implications of misspecifying the error distribution are investigated.