Deconvolution methods for non-parametric inference in two-level mixed models

Summary.  We develop a general non-parametric approach to the analysis of clustered data via random effects. Assuming only that the link function is known, the regression functions and the distributions of both cluster means and observation errors are treated non-parametrically. Our argument proceeds by viewing the observation error at the cluster mean level as though it were a measurement error in an errors-in-variables problem, and using a deconvolution argument to access the distribution of the cluster mean. A Fourier deconvolution approach could be used if the distribution of the error-in-variables were known. In practice it is unknown, of course, but it can be estimated from repeated measurements, and in this way deconvolution can be achieved in an approximate sense. This argument might be interpreted as implying that large numbers of replicates are necessary for each cluster mean distribution, but that is not so; we avoid this requirement by incorporating statistical smoothing over values of nearby explanatory variables. Empirical rules are developed for the choice of smoothing parameter. Numerical simulations, and an application to real data, demonstrate small sample performance for this package of methodology. We also develop theory establishing statistical consistency.     

弘扬传统孝道文化,关注农村养老问题

传统孝道的道德内涵,如养亲、敬亲等规定,是传统孝道文化中的道德精华;传统孝道的推广手段,如宣传教化、榜样引导、以法助孝、以政保孝是行之有效的道德教化手段。在解决当前农村养老问题时,应该继承和借鉴传统孝道文化中的优秀道德资源。     

传媒商业化带来的相关问题分析

传媒商业化是当前中国传媒变革中的热点问题.尽管商业化成为传媒业发展的加速器,但其带来的社会负面效应也必须正视:传媒产品娱乐化、低俗化现象严重,商业炒作无处不在,主流媒体"喉舌"功能减弱等,由此造成媒体的社会责任感不断弱化.对于这些问题,应根据我国传媒业发展的阶段性特点进行系统分析,并借鉴发达国家的相关管制经验,找出一个适用性的解决方案.     

Trajectory of problem behaviours of Korean adopted children: using piecewise hierarchical linear growth modelling

This study examined the trajectory of problem behaviours in domestically adopted children in South Korea as they aged. This study used the Panel Study on Korean Adopted Children's longitudinal, three‐wave data (2006, 2008 and 2010). Although data were collected at three time points, our data consisted of six time points, which covered the 5–10 years age range of the adopted children at the time of survey. One hundred sixty‐four children were included in the analysis, 75 of whom contributed to one time point, 74 to two time points and 15 to three time points. The trajectory of the problem behaviours of adopted children was examined using a piecewise hierarchical linear growth model. Because the initial exploration of the data suggested non‐linear changes in behaviour problems over time, we split the growth trajectory into two time periods: Time 1 (5–7 years) and Time 2 (7–10 years). A two‐rate model was used to estimate separate slopes for the two time periods. Results showed that the externalizing and internalizing problems of adopted children have different trajectories. Internalizing problems did not show significant changes after 5 years of age, while externalizing problems increased until 7 years of age and decreased significantly thereafter.     

Likelihood procedure for testing changes in skew normal model with applications to stock returns

The skew normal distribution family is an attractive distribution family due to its mathematical tractability and inclusion of the normal distribution as the special case. It has wide applications in many applied fields such as finance, economics, and medical research. Such a distribution family has been studied extensively since it was introduced by Azzalini in 1985 Azzalini, A. (1985). A class of distributions which includes the normal ones. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 12:171–178. [Google Scholar] for the first time. Yet, few work has been done on the study of change point problem related to this distribution family. In this article, we propose the likelihood ratio test (LRT) to detect changes in the parameters of the skew normal distribution associated with some asymptotic results of the test statistic. Simulations have been conducted under different scenarios to investigate the performance of the proposed method. Comparisons to some other existing method indicate the comparable power of the method in detecting changes in parameters of the skew normal distribution model. Applications on two real data: Brazilian and Tanzanian stock returns illustrate the detection procedure.     

‘Let's Talk About Children’: Investigating the Use of a Family‐focused Intervention in the Gambling Support Services Sector

The family‐focused mental health intervention, ‘Let's Talk About Children,’ has positively influenced the lives of families affected by parental mental illness. This paper outlines the use of this brief, strengths‐based intervention for parents with gambling and other co‐occurring issues from the gamblers’ support services sector. Over a six‐month period, a training manual and accompanying resources were adapted for the gamblers’ support services sector and a targeted training session developed. Nine problem gambling counsellors from three Victorian gambling support services trialled the Let's Talk About Children intervention over a four‐month period. Qualitative data were gathered through focus groups, interviews, and practice enquiry groups to determine the impact of the Let's Talk About Children model for gambling support services. The results are presented as ‘practice wisdoms and recommendations’ reporting on the impact of the trial and to provide some guidance to support others in the implementation of a specific family‐focused intervention. This paper reports on the first exploratory trial of Let's Talk About Children for the gambler's support services sector in Australia.     

后现代视野与文学经典问题域的新问题

本文以我国文学经典问题域业已形成为基本判断,全面和历史性地梳理了其形成原因和过程,分析了问题域中诸问题之间的逻辑关系,目前面临的研究困境等。籍此提出文学经典重读的问题,旨在从文学经典现象和重读主体实践活动角度,从该问题的界定、研究目的和重读对象的确定等基本方面做了交代。最后,提出文学经典重读问题需要置于现代与后现代相互交融的"思考和感觉方式"中。     

当前高校学生党支部建设中存在的问题与对策

高校学生党支部是在高校党委领导下的基层党组织,担负着党在高校直接联系大学生,把党的路线、方针、政策落实到大学生群体中的重要职责,我校在开展学生党建工作时积极创新学生党支部工作模式,积累了一些经验,但也存在一些亟需解决的问题。对此应继续加强党支部组织建设,强化各支部委员职责意识;建立健全各项制度,加大党员的继续教育力度;强化大学生思想政治教育工作,端正学生入党动机;重视网络党建工作,拓展党建阵地,发挥网络服务党员的作用。     

高校校报新闻评论的不足与改进策略

指出了目前高校校报在新闻评论方面存在的诸如数量偏少、模式化倾向严重、缺乏特色和吸引力、舆论监督力度不够等不足。强调只有充分认识新闻评论的重要性,深入实际反映校园生活,运用多种形式,才能充分发挥它的＂旗帜＂和＂灵魂＂的作用,真正做到以强势的舆论影响人,以正确的舆论引导人,为高校的改革与发展创造良好的舆论氛围。     

我国产业区域转移粘性问题研究

根据产业梯度转移理论,高梯度地区产业会不断地向低梯度地区转移,但是我国处于高梯度的东部地区在经历了长达20余年的发展与繁荣之后,其边际产业并没有像理论界所预期的那样,向中西部地区的大规模转移,主要原因在于产业区域转移粘性的存在。产业区域转移粘性由劳动力成本因素、行政因素、产业集群效应、文化、技术与体制等因素形成,只有通过宏观政策、东部地区和中西部地区的共同努力,才能克服产业区域转移粘性,促进产业转移顺利进行。