Correlation in a Bayesian framework

The authors consider the correlation between two arbitrary functions of the data and a parameter when the parameter is regarded as a random variable with given prior distribution. They show how to compute such a correlation and use closed form expressions to assess the dependence between parameters and various classical or robust estimators thereof, as well as between p‐values and posterior probabilities of the null hypothesis in the one‐sided testing problem. Other applications involve the Dirichlet process and stationary Gaussian processes. Using this approach, the authors also derive a general nonparametric upper bound on Bayes risks.     

Differential equation models for statistical functions

Differential equations have been used in statistics to define functions such as probability densities. But the idea of using differential equation formulations of stochastic models has a much wider scope. The author gives several examples, including simultaneous estimation of a regression model and residual density, monotone smoothing, specification of a link function, differential equation models of data, and smoothing over complicated multidimensional domains. This paper aims to stimulate interest in this approach to functional estimation problems, rather than provide carefully worked out methods.     

Bayesian prediction of waiting times in stochastic models

The authors show how saddlepoint techniques lead to highly accurate approximations for Bayesian predictive densities and cumulative distribution functions in stochastic model settings where the prior is tractable, but not necessarily the likelihood or the predictand distribution. They consider more specifically models involving predictions associated with waiting times for semi‐Markov processes whose distributions are indexed by an unknown parameter θ. Bayesian prediction for such processes when they are not stationary is also addressed and the inverse‐Gaussian based saddlepoint approximation of Wood, Booth & Butler (1993) is shown to accurately deal with the nonstationarity whereas the normal‐based Lugannani & Rice (1980) approximation cannot, Their methods are illustrated by predicting various waiting times associated with M/M/q and M/G/1 queues. They also discuss modifications to the matrix renewal theory needed for computing the moment generating functions that are used in the saddlepoint methods.     

Rate efficient estimation of realized Laplace transform of volatility with microstructure noise

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the Laplace transform of volatility within a fixed time interval [0,T] using high‐frequency sampling, where we assume that the discretized observations of the latent process are contaminated by microstructure noise. We use the pre‐averaging approach to deal with the effect of microstructure noise. Under the high‐frequency scenario, we obtain a consistent estimator whose convergence rate is , which is known as the optimal convergence rate of the estimation of integrated volatility functionals under the presence of microstructure noise. The related central limit theorem is established. The simulation studies justify the finite‐sample performance of the proposed estimator.     

基于SVM的Web日志挖掘及潜在客户发现

潜在的客户资源是商家未来的利润来源,发现了潜在的客户就可以制定相应的商业决策,并进行有针对性的客户关系管理。使用SVM方法对Web日志文件进行挖掘,以发现站点访问者中潜在客户的共同行为模式,并将其分为不同级别的目标客户群。同时,通过试验4种不同比例的训练样本,研究了非对称数据对分类结果的影响,以期获得较优的模型。     

A green social work perspective on social work during the time of COVID‐19

COVID‐19 has challenged social workers to engage with health pandemics and provide essential services in conditions of uncertainty and high risk. They have safeguarded children, older adults and diverse adults in ‘at risk’ groups under tough conditions mediated by digital technologies, adhered to government injunctions, maintained social and physical distancing under lockdown and worked from home remotely. Social workers and social care workers have risen to the challenges, providing services with inadequate personal protective equipment and limited supervision and support. This article highlights the degraded physical environments, socio‐economic and political contexts that intensify precariousness and constraints that neoliberalism imposed on professional capacity before and during this health pandemic. It provides guidelines to protect practitioners and service users. It concludes that practitioners ought to understand zoonotic diseases, environmental concerns, acquire disaster expertise and training, widen their practice portfolio and value their contributions to this pandemic. Key Practitioner Message: ? Develop technological skills and innovate to support stressed individuals, safeguard children, adolescents and elders and deal with poverty and unemployment; ? Use digital technologies involving peers to explore tricky situations, examine ethical dilemmas through scenario building exercises, and tips for self‐care; ? Contribute to environmental protections that prevent the spread of zoonotic diseases like COVID‐19; ? Seek supervision and support for disaster‐based training from your line manager.     

Reconstruction of post‐war social work: Experience from former Yugoslavia as an inspiration

Immediately after the civil war among the nations of former Yugoslavia that took place 1992–1995, Swedish members of the social work faculty were recruited by UNICEF to support the organising of foster homes for war‐orphaned children. Around 20 projects, some initiated by UNICEF and others by SIDA (Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency) were also organised with Sarajevo University as the main location of the administration. At the request of the Parliament of Republika Srpska, a new school of social work was established at the University of Banja Luka. This was a successful project thanks to network collaboration among the faculties of social work in the former Yugoslavian nations and with academic contributions from universities from Sweden and Berlin. In this article, the two social welfare projects based in Sarajevo and Banja Luka are presented. Together with an accompanying group of experts, I found that an explorative mindset and an abductive approach were helpful tools in dialogues with our partners in the developing world.     

Roadmap to recovery: Reporting on a research taskforce supporting Indigenous responses to COVID‐19 in Australia

In April 2020 a Group of Eight Taskforce was convened, consisting of over 100 researchers, to provide independent, research‐based recommendations to the Commonwealth Government on a “Roadmap to Recovery” from COVID‐19. The report covered issues ranging from pandemic control and relaxation of social distancing measures, to well‐being and special considerations for vulnerable populations. Our work focused on the critical needs of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities; this paper presents an overview of our recommendations to the Roadmap report. In addressing the global challenges posed by pandemics for citizens around the world, Indigenous people are recognised as highly vulnerable. At the time of writing Australia's First Nations Peoples have been largely spared from COVID‐19 in comparison to other Indigenous populations globally. Our recommendations emphasise self‐determination and equitable needs‐based funding to support Indigenous communities to recover from COVID‐19, addressing persistent overcrowded housing, and a focus on workforce, especially for regional and remote communities. These latter two issues have been highlighted as major issues of risk for Indigenous communities in Australia It remains to be seen how governments across Australia take up these recommendations to support Indigenous peoples' health and healing journey through yet another, potentially catastrophic, health crisis.     

On the Olympic Games: An Afterword

The article discusses some of the issues that sociologists research with respect to the Olympic Games.     

Inside co‐production: Stakeholder meaning and situated practice

Co‐production has risen to the fore of contemporary policymaking, with the intention of placing citizens at the heart of public service design and production. Although this may lead to more democratic and legitimate decision‐making, achieving “meaningful” co‐production can be difficult. In this qualitative study, we examine what constitutes meaningful co‐production, in particular asking whether there is a disconnect between the elite policy narrative that legitimizes co‐production and stakeholder experiences of this approach. Our research adopts a decentred approach to examine the different ways that actors understand and participate in co‐production, both as a methodology and as an interactive social practice. We conclude that a lack of synergy between local narratives may undermine the potential success of co‐production.