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101.
Central to many inferential situations is the estimation of rational functions of parameters. The mainstream in statistics and econometrics estimates these quantities based on the plug‐in approach without consideration of the main objective of the inferential situation. We propose the Bayesian Minimum Expected Loss (MELO) approach focusing explicitly on the function of interest, and calculating its frequentist variability. Asymptotic properties of the MELO estimator are similar to the plug‐in approach. Nevertheless, simulation exercises show that our proposal is better in situations characterised by small sample sizes and/or noisy data sets. In addition, we observe in the applications that our approach gives lower standard errors than frequently used alternatives when data sets are not very informative.  相似文献   
102.
Stimulus generalization and contextual control affect the development of equivalence classes. Experiment 1 demonstrated primary stimulus generalization from the members of trained equivalence classes. Adults were taught to match six spoken Icelandic nouns and corresponding printed words and pictures to one another in computerized three-choice matching-to-sample tasks. Tests confirmed that six equivalence classes had formed. Without further training, plural forms of the stimuli were presented in tests for all matching performances. All participants demonstrated virtually errorless performances. In Experiment 2, classifications of the nouns used in Experiment 1 were brought under contextual control. Three nouns were feminine and three were masculine. The match-to-sample training taught participants to select a comparison of the same number as the sample (i.e., singular or plural) in the presence of contextual stimulus A regardless of noun gender. Concurrently, in the presence of contextual stimulus B, participants were taught to select a comparison of the same gender as the sample (i.e., feminine or masculine), regardless of number. Generalization was assessed using a card-sorting test. All participants eventually sorted the cards correctly into gender and number stimulus classes. When printed words used in training were replaced by their picture equivalents, participants demonstrated almost errorless performances.  相似文献   
103.
The performance of a retail store depends on its ability to attract customer traffic, match labor with incoming traffic, and convert the incoming traffic into sales. Retailers make significant investments in marketing activities (such as advertising) to bring customers into their stores and in‐store labor to convert that traffic into sales. Thus, a common trade‐off that retail store managers face concerns the allocation of a store's limited budget between advertising and labor to enhance store‐level sales. To explore that trade‐off, we develop a centralized model to allocate limited store budget between store labor and advertising with the objective of maximizing store sales. We find that a store's inherent potential to drive traffic plays an important role, among other factors, in the relative allocation between advertising and store labor. We also find that as advertising instruments become more effective in bringing traffic to stores, managers should not always capitalize this effectiveness by increasing their existing allocations to advertising. In addition, we discuss a decentralized setting where budget allocation decisions cannot be enforced by a store manager and present a simple mechanism that can achieve the centralized solution. In an extension, we address the budget allocation problem in the presence of marketing efforts to shift store traffic from peak to off peak hours and show that our initial findings are robust. Further, we illustrate how the solution from the budget allocation model can be used to facilitate store level sales force planning/scheduling decisions. Based on the results of our model, we present several insights that can help managers in budget allocation and sales force planning.  相似文献   
104.
针对支持向量机中由于噪声和野值带来的过拟合问题,提出了基于模糊最小二乘支持向量机(fuzzy LS-SVM)的抑制非直达波的移动定位方法。利用一种基于支持向量数据域描述的模糊隶属度函数模型,根据样本到特征空间最小包含超球球心的距离来确定模糊隶属度。仿真结果表明了该方法的稳健性,提高了LS-SVM的抗噪声能力。  相似文献   
105.
Biomarkers such as DNA adducts have significant potential to improve quantitative risk assessment by characterizing individual differences in metabolism of genotoxins and DNA repair and accounting for some of the factors that could affect interindividual variation in cancer risk. Inherent uncertainty in laboratory measurements and within-person variability of DNA adduct levels over time are putatively unrelated to cancer risk and should be subtracted from observed variation to better estimate interindividual variability of response to carcinogen exposure. A total of 41 volunteers, both smokers and nonsmokers, were asked to provide a peripheral blood sample every 3 weeks for several months in order to specifically assess intraindividual variability of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)-DNA adduct levels. The intraindividual variance in PAH-DNA adduct levels, together with measurement uncertainty (laboratory variability and unaccounted for differences in exposure), constituted roughly 30% of the overall variance. An estimated 70% of the total variance was contributed by interindividual variability and is probably representative of the true biologic variability of response to carcinogenic exposure in lymphocytes. The estimated interindividual variability in DNA damage after subtracting intraindividual variability and measurement uncertainty was 24-fold. Inter-individual variance was higher (52-fold) in persons who constitutively lack the Glutathione S-Transferase M1 (GSTM1) gene which is important in the detoxification pathway of PAH. Risk assessment models that do not consider the variability of susceptibility to DNA damage following carcinogen exposure may underestimate risks to the general population, especially for those people who are most vulnerable.  相似文献   
106.
语言本身的非系统性与文学创作的审美特性是促进文学语言产生变异的重要原因。在创作过程中,作家要把握和表现那些有多种可能性、无限发展性的事物,要写出自己的独特感受,使文学语言只得“化常为变”,而语言的非系统性则提供了物质上的可能。文学语言的变异性表现为语音变异、语义变异和语法变异。  相似文献   
107.
We empirically illustrate how concepts and methods involved in a grade of membership (GoM) analysis can be used to sort individuals by competence. Our study relies on a data set compiled from the international survey on higher education graduates called REFLEX. We focus on the subset of data related to the perception of own competencies. It is first decomposed into fuzzy clusters that form a hierarchical fuzzy partition. Then, we calculate a scalar measure of competencies for each fuzzy cluster, and subsequently use the individual GoM scores to combine cluster-based competencies to position individuals on a scale from 0 to 1.  相似文献   
108.
Dose assessment is an important issue from the viewpoints of protecting people from radiation exposure and managing postaccident situations adequately. However, the radiation doses received by people cannot be determined with complete accuracy because of the uncertainties and the variability associated with any process of defining individual characteristics and in the dose assessment process itself. In this study, a dose assessment model was developed based on measurements and surveys of individual doses and relevant contributors (i.e., ambient dose rates and behavior patterns) in Fukushima City for four population groups: Fukushima City Office staff, Senior Citizens’ Club, Contractors’ Association, and Agricultural Cooperative. In addition, probabilistic assessments were performed for these population groups by considering the spatial variability of contamination and interpopulation differences resulting from behavior patterns. As a result of comparison with the actual measurements, the assessment results for participants from the Fukushima City Office agreed with the measured values, thereby validating the model and the approach. Although the assessment results obtained for the Senior Citizens’ Club and the Agricultural Cooperative differ partly from the measured values, by addressing further considerations in terms of dose reduction effects due to decontamination and the impact of additional exposure sources in agricultural fields, these results can be improved. By contrast, the measurements obtained for the participants from the Contractors’ Association were not reproduced well in the present study. To assess the doses to this group, further investigations of association members’ work activities and the related dose reduction effects are needed.  相似文献   
109.
Environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) is a major contributor to indoor human exposures to fine particulate matter of 2.5 μm or smaller (PM2.5). The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation for Particulate Matter (SHEDS‐PM) Model developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates distributions of outdoor and indoor PM2.5 exposure for a specified population based on ambient concentrations and indoor emissions sources. A critical assessment was conducted of the methodology and data used in SHEDS‐PM for estimation of indoor exposure to ETS. For the residential microenvironment, SHEDS uses a mass‐balance approach, which is comparable to best practices. The default inputs in SHEDS‐PM were reviewed and more recent and extensive data sources were identified. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine which inputs should be prioritized for updating. Data regarding the proportion of smokers and “other smokers” and cigarette emission rate were found to be important. SHEDS‐PM does not currently account for in‐vehicle ETS exposure; however, in‐vehicle ETS‐related PM2.5 levels can exceed those in residential microenvironments by a factor of 10 or more. Therefore, a mass‐balance‐based methodology for estimating in‐vehicle ETS PM2.5 concentration is evaluated. Recommendations are made regarding updating of input data and algorithms related to ETS exposure in the SHEDS‐PM model. Interindividual variability for ETS exposure was quantified. Geographic variability in ETS exposure was quantified based on the varying prevalence of smokers in five selected locations in the United States.  相似文献   
110.
通过问卷调查和数理统计方法,对吉林省20个省级体育社团以及长春市26个体育社团进行调查,从发起成立的方式、负责人情况等方面进行了分析阐述。  相似文献   
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