刍议北京城中轴线研究十要点

北京城中轴线是经过长期的历史积淀,经过多个古都的不断实践,在明代形成并发展至今的。当下的北京文化研究领域,大家都在热烈讨论北京城中轴线申遗问题,文章列举了北京城中轴线研究的十个要点,对推动北京城中轴线研究和申遗工作具有重要参考意义。     

新形势下干部道德建设途径的探讨

国外在行政道德建设方面的经验,如设立政府道德办公室、设置伦理道德巡视官、行政道德法制化等,对新形势下我国干部道德建设有所启示。可以通过坚持不懈地反思伦理价值、构建道德的基础性行为规范、完善伦理道德净化机制等五个途径加强干部的道德建设。     

Robust Control in Water Management

Since surface water flows are often stochastic, there is a role for water reservoirs in protecting users against uncertainty. We assume uncertainty regarding the probability distribution for the stochastic variable. Thus the decision allows for a range of approximate models that could be true, and the problem can be solved using robust optimal control. This paper analyses the implications of a robust framework on resource management decisions, using the case of water as an illustration. Robust choices are compared with those of a benchmark stochastic model and the emergence of precautionary behaviour is discussed.     

Quantifying Water Pathogen Risk in an Epidemiological Framework

Traditionally, microbial risk assessors have used point estimates to evaluate the probability that an individual will become infected. We developed a quantitative approach that shifts the risk characterization perspective from point estimate to distributional estimate, and from individual to population. To this end, we first designed and implemented a dynamic model that tracks traditional epidemiological variables such as the number of susceptible, infected, diseased, and immune, and environmental variables such as pathogen density. Second, we used a simulation methodology that explicitly acknowledges the uncertainty and variability associated with the data. Specifically, the approach consists of assigning probability distributions to each parameter, sampling from these distributions for Monte Carlo simulations, and using a binary classification to assess the output of each simulation. A case study is presented that explores the uncertainties in assessing the risk of giardiasis when swimming in a recreational impoundment using reclaimed water. Using literature-based information to assign parameters ranges, our analysis demonstrated that the parameter describing the shedding of pathogens by infected swimmers was the factor that contributed most to the uncertainty in risk. The importance of other parameters was dependent on reducing the a priori range of this shedding parameter. By constraining the shedding parameter to its lower subrange, treatment efficiency was the parameter most important in predicting whether a simulation resulted in prevalences above or below non outbreak levels. Whereas parameters associated with human exposure were important when the shedding parameter was constrained to a higher subrange. This Monte Carlo simulation technique identified conditions in which outbreaks and/or nonoutbreaks are likely and identified the parameters that most contributed to the uncertainty associated with a risk prediction.     

1-out-of-n不经意传输的变换及应用

提出了不经意传输的一个新应用——在群签名中的应用。首先给出了文献[1]的1-out-of-n不经意传输协议的一个变形,利用该变形协议提出了一种新的群签名成员资格撤销方法。该撤销方法是一个一般性的方法,可通用于任何群签名方案,而以前的撤销方法都是针对某一具体签名方案的,不具有通用性。在随机预言机模型以及计算Diffie-Hellman(CDH)假设下,可证明新协议是安全的。     

论党内监督的理论依据

治国必先治党 ,治党必须从严。发展党内民主、加强监督是党的性质宗旨、法治原则、民主政治原则、权力制约原则的必然要求。分析党内监督的理论基础 ,对党内监督的实现 ,对于我们坚持党要管党 ,从严治党的方针 ,发展党内民主 ,严格党的纪律、维护党的团结统一 ,增强拒腐防变 ,抵御风险能力 ,保持党的先进性 ,始终做到立党为公 ,执政为民 ,必将起到积极作用     

Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes: Impact of Individual Cell Variability on the Exposure Assessment Step

Recently, the lag phase research in predictive microbiology is focusing more on the individual cell variability, especially for pathogenic microorganisms that typically occur in very low contamination levels, like Listeria monocytogenes. In this study, the effect of this individual cell lag phase variability was introduced in an exposure assessment study for L. monocytogenes in a liver paté. A basic framework was designed to estimate the contamination level of paté at the time of consumption, taking into account the frequency of contamination and the initial contamination levels of paté at retail. Growth was calculated on paté units of 150 g, comparing an individual-based approach with a classical population-based approach. The two different protocols were compared using simulations. If only the individual cell lag variability was taken into account, important differences were observed in cell density at the time of consumption between the individual-based approach and the classical approach, especially at low inoculum levels, resulting in high variability when using the individual-based approach. Although, when all variable factors were taken into account, no significant differences were observed between the different approaches, allowing the conclusion that the individual cell lag phase variability was overruled by the global variability of the exposure assessment framework. Even in more extreme conditions like a low inoculum level or a low water activity, no differences were created in cell density at the time of consumption between the individual-based approach and the classical approach. This means that the individual cell lag phase variability of L. monocytogenes has important consequences when studying specific growth cases, especially when the applied inoculum levels are low, but when performing more general exposure assessment studies, the variability between the individual cell lag phases is too limited to have a major impact on the total exposure assessment.     

Importance of Uncertainty and Variability to Predicted Risks from Trophic Transfer of PCBs in Dredged Sediments

Biomagnification of organochlorine and other persistent organic contaminants by higher trophic level organisms represents one of the most significant sources of uncertainty and variability in evaluating potential risks associated with disposal of dredged materials. While it is important to distinguish between population variability (e.g., true population heterogeneity in fish weight, and lipid content) and uncertainty (e.g., measurement error), they can be operationally difficult to define separately in probabilistic estimates of human health and ecological risk. We propose a disaggregation of uncertain and variable parameters based on: (1) availability of supporting data; (2) the specific management and regulatory context (in this case, of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency tiered approach to dredged material management); and (3) professional judgment and experience in conducting probabilistic risk assessments. We describe and quantitatively evaluate several sources of uncertainty and variability in estimating risk to human health from trophic transfer of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) using a case study of sediments obtained from the New York-New Jersey Harbor and being evaluated for disposal at an open water off-shore disposal site within the northeast region. The estimates of PCB concentrations in fish and dietary doses of PCBs to humans ingesting fish are expressed as distributions of values, of which the arithmetic mean or mode represents a particular fractile. The distribution of risk values is obtained using a food chain biomagnification model developed by Gobas by specifying distributions for input parameters disaggregated to represent either uncertainty or variability. Only those sources of uncertainty that could be quantified were included in the analysis. Results for several different two-dimensional Latin Hypercube analyses are provided to evaluate the influence of the uncertain versus variable disaggregation of model parameters. The analysis suggests that variability in human exposure parameters is greater than the uncertainty bounds on any particular fractile, given the described assumptions.     

高校团员意识教育的生长点内化点群集凝聚点

团员意识的共性本质是记得起自己是团员、先进青年、党的助手与后备军.高校团员意识还带有浓重的学习、志愿、法制、团队意识的高学历个性色彩.面对办学体制改革、网络冲击、市场人才需求压力、转型期价值整合,世界文化的碰撞磨合所带来的高校团员意识教育新难题,探索表明思想政治教育通道是团员意识的生长点;实践活动教育通道是团员意识的内化点;团的组织建设通道是团员意识的群集凝聚点.     

Human Interindividual Variability–A Major Source of Uncertainty in Assessing Risks for Noncancer Health Effects

For noncancer effects, the degree of human interindividual variability plays a central role in determining the risk that can be expected at low exposures. This discussion reviews available data on observations of interindividual variability in (a) breathing rates, based on observations in British coal miners; (b) systemic pharmacokinetic parameters, based on studies of a number of drugs; (c) susceptibility to neurological effects from fetal exposure to methyl mercury, based on observations of the incidence of effects in relation to hair mercury levels; and (d) chronic lung function changes in relation to long-term exposure to cigarette smoke. The quantitative ranges of predictions that follow from uncertainties in estimates of interindividual variability in susceptibility are illustrated.