Regression-based,regression-free and model-free approaches for robust online scale estimation

This paper compares the methods for variability extraction from a univariate time series in real time. The online scale estimation is achieved by applying a robust scale functional to a moving time window. Scale estimators based on the residuals of a preceding regression step are compared with regression-free and model-free techniques in a simulation study and in an application to a real time series. In the presence of level shifts or strong non-linear trends in the signal level, the model-free scale estimators perform especially well. However, the investigated regression-free and regression-based methods have higher breakdown points, they are applicable to data containing temporal correlations, and they are much more efficient.     

经济财富的性质考察与辨析

经济财富除了具有效用性、稀缺性、劳动性、物质性、社会性、历史性等基本特征以外,还具有多样性、变异性、聚集性、流动性等众多衍生性质。在此基础上,笔者认同和支持通过努力劳动与重视科技创新、不断改善社会关系并保护劳动者的利益、积极扩大国内外贸易与技术交流、加强国家安全防卫等基本措施创造与维护国家的经济财富。     

香港降水分析

本文分析了香港降水的变化、降水应以及降水的稳定性,从香港降水强度中分析香港暴雨的情况及其危害,并指出城市热岛效应使香港降水生产变化。     

Fitting finite mixture models using iterative Monte Carlo classification

Parameters of a finite mixture model are often estimated by the expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm where the observed data log-likelihood function is maximized. This paper proposes an alternative approach for fitting finite mixture models. Our method, called the iterative Monte Carlo classification (IMCC), is also an iterative fitting procedure. Within each iteration, it first estimates the membership probabilities for each data point, namely the conditional probability of a data point belonging to a particular mixing component given that the data point value is obtained, it then classifies each data point into a component distribution using the estimated conditional probabilities and the Monte Carlo method. It finally updates the parameters of each component distribution based on the classified data. Simulation studies were conducted to compare IMCC with some other algorithms for fitting mixture normal, and mixture t, densities.     

Using a lag schedule to increase variability of verbal responding in an individual with autism

Research has shown that reinforcing novel behaviors can increase the number of different ways that an individual behaves (Goetz & Baer, 1973; Pryor, Haag, & O'Reilly, 1969). However, it was not until more recently that researchers began to consider variability to be a reinforceable operant in and of itself (Neuringer, 2002). More specifically, Neuringer suggested that variability can be taught using a Lag x schedule of reinforcement, in which x refers to the number of previous responses from which the current response must differ in order for reinforcement to occur (Page & Neuringer, 1985). The purpose of the present study was to extend one of the first studies of a Lag x schedule on verbal responses with human subjects (Lee, McComas, & Jawor, 2002), by increasing the lag criteria while attempting to address some of methodological limitations of the study. The participant was a 7-year-old male with autism. A changing criterion design was used and results showed that 3 novel responses were acquired and varied according to the lag schedule of reinforcement.     

Increased variability in tacting under a lag 3 schedule of reinforcement

Research has shown that variability may be an operant dimension of behavior. One method of reinforcing response variability is to use a lag schedule of reinforcement (Page & Neuringer, 1985). Several studies have shown that a Lag 1 schedule is effective in increasing variable responding with human participants (e.g., Esch, Esch, & Love, 2009; Lee, McComas, & Jawor, 2002). In these arrangements, however, the return to baseline responding during reversal phases suggests that the resulting behavior change may not be maintained following intervention. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the effects of a Lag 3 schedule on increasing and maintaining variability of tacts in 2 children diagnosed with developmental disabilities. Results demonstrated increased variability in tacting for both participants and maintenance in variable responding after a 3-week follow-up.     

“Basically it's the Usual Whole Teen Girl Thing”: Stage‐of‐Life Categories on a Children and Young People's Helpline

This article explores the practices of membership categorization in the interactions of clients and counselors on a national Australian helpline (Kids Helpline [KHL]) for children and young persons. Our focus is on membership categories drawn from three membership category devices (MCDs): stage‐of‐life (SOL), age, and family. Analysis draws on data across different contact modalities—email and web‐counseling sessions—to examine how category‐generated features are relevantly occasioned, attended to, and managed by the parties in the course of interaction. This shows clients' use of MCDs in presenting their trouble and building a relevant case for their grievance. By examining counselors' subsequent receipts of the clients' complaints, we are able to trace some of the cultural knowledge that the clients' categorizations make relevant to the counselors. Moreover, the analysis demonstrates how the inherent flexibility of MCDs allows counselors to exploit these same categorial resources and to re‐specify the clients' trouble in a more positive fashion to accomplish counseling work. In explicating how taken‐for‐granted notions of the lifespan as well as of family relations are mobilized by participants in KHL's sessions, the findings contribute to previous studies of social interaction in counseling, and to research on social identity and categorization more broadly.     

Weibo use and political participation: the mechanism explaining the positive effect of Weibo use on online political participation among college students in contemporary China

This study examines the various aspects of Weibo use, including the number of people users follow; the number of fans they have; the frequency with which they read friends’, celebrities’, and opinion leaders’ Weibo; and the number of Weibo group memberships on youth online political participation in contemporary China. The study also investigates the underlying mechanisms explaining the positive effects of Weibo use on youth online political participation using survey methods. Chinese users mainly use Weibo to satisfy their needs for information and connectedness. As an alternative source of information, Weibo indeed functions as an ‘online school of political participation’ to foster political interest, a sense of belonging to an online community, and civic virtue among Weibo users. As a new platform for Chinese to form online civic groups, memberships in Weibo groups significantly increases users’ likelihood of being politically mobilized, which is essential for online collective participation. Our study shows that Verba, Schlozman, and Brady’s [(1995). Voice and equality: Civic voluntarism in American politics. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press] civic voluntarism model can be extended to the online environment in an authoritarian system.     

从广覆盖到真认同:新经济下工会组建方式的变革

新经济的发展促使传统劳动关系发生诸多变革,产生诸多新问题。工会组织该如何变革工会组建方式,才能应对新的挑战,是一个无法回避的现实问题。为了应对新经济的挑战,各级工会在全国总工会的部署下,开展了新业态新领域新模式的建会实践。以"有效扩大工会组织覆盖面"为目标,新经济背景下的建会入会既独立又交叉在传统的工会组建工作中,并以推动八大群体入会展示新作为。但现行工会组建也依然存在着自上而下推动等问题。因此,各级工会应在广覆盖的目标之下,切实调研职工需求,围绕新经济背景下职工需求的变化采取措施回应和满足,如此才能获得职工群众的真认同。这是工会组织应对新经济发展变革的根本之道。     

Statistical review by research ethics committees

This paper discusses some of the issues surrounding statistical review by research ethics committees (RECs). A survey of local RECs in 1997 revealed that only 27/184 (15%) included a statistician member at that time, although 70/175 (40%) recognized the need for such. The role of the statistician member is considered and the paper includes a summary of a meeting of the Royal Statistical Society to discuss statistical issues that frequently arise in the review of REC applications. A list of minimum qualifications which RECs should expect from anyone claiming to be a statistician would be useful, together with a list of statisticians who are well qualified and willing to serve on RECs, and a list of training courses for REC members covering the appropriate statistical issues.