时间贝叶斯网络及其概率推理

针对贝叶斯网络应用中出现的循环和动态问题,研究贝叶斯网络的时间扩展.给出了时间贝叶斯网络的定义;探讨了时间贝叶斯网络中环的存在合理性判断问题;给出了时间贝叶斯网络的概率推理算法,应用示例说明了方法的可行性.     

A formulation of the concept of probability based on the use of experimental devices

This paper sets out to identify the abilities that a person needs to be able to successfully use an experimental device, such as a probability wheel or balls in an urn, for the elicitation of subjective probabilities. It is assumed that the successful use of the device requires that the person elicits unique probability values that obey the standard probability laws. This leads to a definition of probability based on the idea of the similarity between the likeliness of events and this concept is naturally extended to the idea that probabilities have strengths, which relates to information about the likeliness of an event that lies beyond a simple probability value. The latter notion is applied to the problem of explaining the Ellsberg paradox. To avoid the definition of probability being circular, probabilities are defined such that they depend on the choice of a reference set of events R which, in simple cases, corresponds to the raw outcomes produced by using an experimental device. However, it is shown that even when the events in R are considered as having an “equal chance” of occurring, the values and/or strengths of probabilities can still be affected by the choice of the set R.     

A comparison of risk transfer strategies for a portfolio of life annuities based on RORAC

This paper aims to compare different reinsurance arrangements in order to reduce the longevity and financial risk originated by a life insurer while managing a portfolio of annuities policies. Linear and nonlinear reinsurance strategies as well as swap like agreements are evaluated via a discrete-time actuarial risk model. Specifically, longevity dynamics are represented by Lee–Carter type models, while interest rate is modeled by Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model. The reinsurance strategies effectiveness is evaluated according to the Return on Risk Adjusted Capital under a ruin probability constrain.     

论学习型编辑的塑造及其文化责任

确立学习型编辑的理念,做学习型编辑,是社会对编辑职业的要求,同时也应该是每一位编辑的自觉追求。现代编辑活动的特征是编辑工作的信息化,编辑应掌握和运用最新知识和技术,进行文化创新。学习型编辑与学者型编辑是辩证的统一体,编辑学者化关键是"化"的过程,即学习的过程。做学习型编辑,就应肩负起时代赋予的文化使命,传播先进文化,创新传统文化,对社会大众进行文化引导,充当和谐社会建设的文化使者。     

多波段光学探测系统的探测概率研究

针对光学联合探测子系统探测概率的不同特点,提出一种新的系统工作模式,使系统的最终探测概率有较大提高。当子系统的探测概率均比较低时,直接对子系统的探测数据进行融合,可以获得较高探测概率;当各子系统探测概率相差较大时,可先对探测数据进行选择,然后再进行数据融合,这样可以在总探测概率减小不大的情况下,使虚警概率明显降低。     

初等概率论中的收敛性注记

通过介绍初等概率论中的四种收敛性 ,揭示了它们之间的相互关系     

森鸥外的历史使命感——从《舞姬》《阿部一族》《高濑舟》来分析

《舞姬》、《阿部一族》、《高濑舟》是森鸥外的三部代表作品，在这三部作品中，他呼吁个性解放及自我觉醒，具有强烈的历史使命感。森鸥外所处的时代正在进行着效仿欧洲的改革，但是在很多方面又只是粗浅的表面的维新。因此，森鸥外自觉有义务地进行文化、思想上的革新，去向旧思想展开挑战。     

科研方略论

科研成功与否主要取决于其洞察力、感悟力、理论思维能力、田野能力和创新能力。而多读书、重方法、善交流、建团队、深挖井是培养和锻炼这六方面能力的重要途径。     

Union organizing effort and success in the U.S., 1948–2004

While union density in the public sector has increased in recent decades, private sector union density in the U.S. has declined steadily since the mid-1950s. Scholars have evoked a variety of explanations to account for the decline in union membership, but substantially less attention has been devoted to understanding the contribution of the union organizing process as governed by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB). In this paper, we focus on two aspects of this process: union organizing effort (the effort to establish union representation elections to organize non-unionized workers) and union organizing success (success in winning union representation elections). Using annual time series data for the U.S. from 1948 to 2004, we show that there has been a long-term decline in both union organizing effort and union organizing success, which likely contributes to declining union density. We focus on three explanations for these changes: the political–legal environment for unions, deindustrialization and globalization, and employer opposition to unionization efforts. We find that each of these factors contributes to organizing effort and success and conclude with a discussion of the implications of this research for future mobilization efforts.     

Human Reliability Analysis by Fuzzy "CREAM"

This article proposes a systematic procedure for computing probabilities of operator action failure in the cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM). The starting point for the quantification is a previously introduced fuzzy version of the CREAM paradigm that is here further extended to account for: (1) the ambiguity in the qualification of the conditions under which the action is performed (common performance conditions, CPCs) and (2) the fact that the effects of such conditions on human performance reliability may not all be equal.