Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape

Summary.  A general class of statistical models for a univariate response variable is presented which we call the generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS). The model assumes independent observations of the response variable y given the parameters, the explanatory variables and the values of the random effects. The distribution for the response variable in the GAMLSS can be selected from a very general family of distributions including highly skew or kurtotic continuous and discrete distributions. The systematic part of the model is expanded to allow modelling not only of the mean (or location) but also of the other parameters of the distribution of y , as parametric and/or additive nonparametric (smooth) functions of explanatory variables and/or random-effects terms. Maximum (penalized) likelihood estimation is used to fit the (non)parametric models. A Newton–Raphson or Fisher scoring algorithm is used to maximize the (penalized) likelihood. The additive terms in the model are fitted by using a backfitting algorithm. Censored data are easily incorporated into the framework. Five data sets from different fields of application are analysed to emphasize the generality of the GAMLSS class of models.     

Temporal pattern in number of staff on sick leave: the effect of downsizing

Summary.  The pattern of absenteeism in the downsizing process of companies is a topic in focus in economics and social science. A general question is whether employees who are frequently absent are more likely to be selected to be laid off or in contrast whether employees to be dismissed are more likely to be absent for the remaining time of their working contract. We pursue an empirical and microeconomic investigation of these theses. We analyse longitudinal data that were collected in a German company over several years. We fit a semiparametric transition model based on a mixture Poisson distribution for the days of absenteeism per month. Prediction intervals are considered and the primary focus is on the period of downsizing. The data reveal clear evidence for the hypothesis that employees who are to be laid off are more frequently absent before leaving the company. Interestingly, though, no clear evidence is seen that employees being selected to leave the company are those with a bad absenteeism profile.     

图书馆特色化与学科建设

探讨了高校图书馆特色化建设与学科建设之间的互动性关系，提出了高校图书馆特色化建设的具体途径与方法，并指出在特色化建设时应注意的三个问题：层次定位、类型标准和精品战略。     

出境旅游市场管理系统的设计及应用

出境旅游业是我国近年来的新产业 ,目前旅游市场管理不规范 ,竞争手段不正常 ,急需一套合理的管理体制。为解决这一问题 ,本文开发了一个出境旅游市场管理系统 ,使用计算机对出境市场信息进行处理 ,以实现管理手段现代化。     

一类混合指数型算子的一致逼近

主要讨论了一类混合指数型算子的一致逼近问题，并给出了逼近阶的估计和特征刻划。     

析我国刑法第十三条之规定

犯罪概念 ,大致上可以分为形式概念、实质概念及混合概念。我国刑法第十三条规定的是犯罪的混合概念 ,这一混合概念存在着逻辑上的缺陷 ,欠缺明确性和可操作性。文章就如何更为科学地定义犯罪 ,完善我国刑法第十三条作了初步探讨     

面向大学生创新能力培养的创新项目设计

文章论述了面向大学一年级机械类新生开设创新项目课的好处和可行性,并设计了一个橡皮筋动力车制作项目,论述了项目的组织和实施方法,目的是培养学生的创新能力.     

Statistik für bivariate gemischte Poisson–Prozesse am Beispiel der Kraftfahrthaftpflichtversicherung

Zusammenfassung: In diesem Artikel wird der Weg von einem univariaten gemischten Poisson–Prozess, der in vielen Bereichen zum Z?hlen von Ereignissen benutzt wird, zu einem bivariaten gemischten Poisson–Prozess aufgezeigt. Dazu werden einige Eigenschaften des bivariaten Prozesses angegeben. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit wird gezeigt, wie mit Hilfe dieses Prozesses der übergang von einem herk?mmlichen Bonus–Malus–System in der Kraftfahrthaftpflichtversicherung zu einem Bonus–Malus–System mit Berücksichtigung der Schadenart beschritten werden kann. Dazu wird zuerst eine Modellprüfung der gegebenen Daten vorgenommen und sodann werden für verschiedene mischende Verteilungen die Verteilungsparameter gesch?tzt und Nettopr?mien angegeben sowie die Prognosegenauigkeit getestet.

---

Summary: In this paper we show that the model of the bivariate mixed Poisson process arises in a natural way from the univariate mixed Poisson process, which is used in several areas for counting certain events. Furthermore we state some properties of the bivariate process. In the second part of the paper we illustrate how by means of the bivariate mixed Poisson process a bonus–malus system handling different types of accidents can be derived from the classical bonus–malus system in third–party liability insurance. To this end we first check the model on the given data and then estimate distribution parameters and compute net premiums for different mixing distributions as well as test the prediction probabilities.

* Vortrag am Dresdner Forum zur Versicherungsmathematik: Tarifierung in Erst- und Rückversicherung am 25. Juni 2004. Für die Unterstützung zu dieser Arbeit m?chte der Autor Lothar Partzsch, Klaus D. Schmidt (beide Dresden) und Friedemann Spies (München) recht herzlich danken.     

一种程控标准信号源的设计

介绍了用间接频率合成器（IS）、数字波形发生器以及程控衰减器等构成的标准信号源，该信号源只要加上功率放大器，即可实现电力检测仪表最先进的校验技术中的程控标准功率源。整个系统以单片机为控制核心，实现了频率、相位、幅值的数显及步进调整。     

关于广义Ramanujan-Nagell方程解数

设p是奇素数，D是适合p D是正奇数，证明了，当D≠Ap^r-1，其中r是正整数时，方程x^2 D=4p^n至多有1组正整数解（x,n）。