Cautious Expected Utility and the Certainty Effect

Many violations of the independence axiom of expected utility can be traced to subjects' attraction to risk‐free prospects. The key axiom in this paper, negative certainty independence ([Dillenberger, 2010]), formalizes this tendency. Our main result is a utility representation of all preferences over monetary lotteries that satisfy negative certainty independence together with basic rationality postulates. Such preferences can be represented as if the agent were unsure of how to evaluate a given lottery p; instead, she has in mind a set of possible utility functions over outcomes and displays a cautious behavior: she computes the certainty equivalent of p with respect to each possible function in the set and picks the smallest one. The set of utilities is unique in a well defined sense. We show that our representation can also be derived from a “cautious” completion of an incomplete preference relation.     

常见牙膏品牌亲和力与重复购买意愿的实证研究

本文以品牌亲和力-品牌效用-重复购买意愿的品牌信息经验机制为指南,通过对常见牙膏品牌亲和力的比较研究,探寻牙膏品牌亲和力与消费者重复购买意愿的关系,具有为商家提供品牌经营决策信息的现实意义。     

投资组合优化中的泰勒级数收敛性与展开点选择问题研究

研究了泰勒级数对效用函数的收敛条件,力求能够使得泰勒级数成为效用函数的合理近似,从而保证投资组合优化问题的近似解收敛于真实解,最终实现最大化期望效用的投资组合优化问题得以有效解决。在期望效用最大化的泰勒级数近似模型基础上,以HARA效用函数为背景,得到了收益率相对泰勒级数展开点的偏离程度决定了泰勒级数收敛性质的结论,进而提出了合理选择泰勒级数展开点以保证收敛性的方法,该方法意味着在收益率分布具有正偏度的情况下,以往通行的在收益率数学期望处展开泰勒级数的方法不具有合理性,上述分析结论通过数据分析得到了验证。     

网络环境下消费者感知效用模型的构建与研究

商品效用的大小是消费者购买决策的出发点,论文以感知效用为视角,分析了网络消费者的非补偿性决策和补偿性决策,构建了网络消费者感知效用模型,并以此为基础,深入分析了信息收集成本、质量评估成本、商品价格以及购物风险等成本变量对网络购物环境下消费者感知效用的影响。研究结果表明,无论是风险规避型网络消费者,还是风险型网络消费者,商品质量的提高均可以增大消费者感知效用,而商品价格、购物风险的增大将导致消费者感知效用减小,但对于风险型网络消费者,由于承受风险能力强,商品价格的升高并没有增大消费者心理风险成本,而对于风险规避型网络消费者,随着商品价格的升高,消费者心理风险成本相应增大。     

A New Multicriteria Risk Mapping Approach Based on a Multiattribute Frontier Concept

Invasive species risk maps provide broad guidance on where to allocate resources for pest monitoring and regulation, but they often present individual risk components (such as climatic suitability, host abundance, or introduction potential) as independent entities. These independent risk components are integrated using various multicriteria analysis techniques that typically require prior knowledge of the risk components’ importance. Such information is often nonexistent for many invasive pests. This study proposes a new approach for building integrated risk maps using the principle of a multiattribute efficient frontier and analyzing the partial order of elements of a risk map as distributed in multidimensional criteria space. The integrated risks are estimated as subsequent multiattribute frontiers in dimensions of individual risk criteria. We demonstrate the approach with the example of Agrilus biguttatus Fabricius, a high‐risk pest that may threaten North American oak forests in the near future. Drawing on U.S. and Canadian data, we compare the performance of the multiattribute ranking against a multicriteria linear weighted averaging technique in the presence of uncertainties, using the concept of robustness from info‐gap decision theory. The results show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of tradeoffs between multiple risk components changes integrated risk rankings. Both methods delineate similar geographical regions of high and low risks. Overall, aggregation based on a delineation of multiattribute efficient frontiers can be a useful tool to prioritize risks for anticipated invasive pests, which usually have an extremely poor prior knowledge base.     

语言的经济学与大学英语教育

大学英语教育应该遵循市场经济规律，客观理性地认识大学英语学习动机，语言的经济价值与经济效益及教育资源配置，以准确把握市场需求，有效开发教师知识资源，提高学生的主体认知能力和自主学习能力。在课程体系建设上要注重语言知识和技能的结合，通过英语加强文化素质和跨学科专业知识的整合，提高学生综合竞争实力。     

论网络外部性下移动通信技术的选择

通过对网络外部性理论进行分析，对网络外部性（Network externality）以及梅特卡夫定律（Metcalfe’s law）简述，在Katz、Shapiro等学者对网络外部性研究的基础之上引入效用函数，并着重以移动通信技术的选择为例，以效用函数为核心建立简单的数学模型，从消费者、运营商、政府三个方面综合分析，最终近似得出移动通信技术选择的可行性区域，旨在为我国移动通信业的持续发展，提供一种思维角度和方法。     

基于储蓄内生化的中国均衡积累率研究

论文以拉姆齐消费动态模型中的储蓄内生化分析框架为基础,并以中国相关统计数据测算出的各项参数为依据,对中国储蓄内生化的均衡积累率进行了模拟,给出了以消费路径为基础的、不同数量界面的均衡积累路径,并进行了简要分析。     

语言的学、用、效率和对大学英语教学改革的启示

大学英语改革应该重视效率问题。语言用和学的关系既是语言的学习效率,也是语言学习的投资效率的决定因素。在大学英语教育中,从用和学的关系着眼,注意学科差异,尊重学生选择,加强英语教学高效板块建设,是高校英语教学改革一条有价值的思路。     

Multi-attribute utility methods in group decision making: Past applications and potential for inclusion in GDSS

This paper reviews a variety of studies in which multi-attribute utility theory (MAU) has been used successfully to aid group decision processes and discusses the incorporation of MAU in Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS). GDSS of various levels of automation have been proposed to aid group decision making. A number of commercial GDSSs are available which are capable of aiding generation of alternatives, their evaluation, and selection. Many authors have promoted the incorporation of quantitative decision making models in GDSS. The most appropriate quantitative tool for GDSS is MAU, but MAU has rarely been utilized. The cases reviewed illustrate that the use of MAU techniques is not prohibitively difficult or complex.