Valuation of childhood risk reduction: the importance of age, risk preferences, and perspective.

This article explores two problems analysts face in determining how to estimate values for children's health and safety risk reductions. The first addresses the question: Do willingness‐to‐pay estimates for health risk changes differ across children and adults and, if so, how? To answer this question, the article first examines the potential effects of age and risk preferences on willingness to pay. A summary of the literature reporting empirical evidence of differences between willingness to pay for adult health and safety risk reductions and willingness to pay for health and safety risk reductions in children is also provided. The second dimension of the problem is a more fundamental issue: Whose perspective is relevant when valuing children's health effects—society's, children's, adults‐as‐children, or parents'? Each perspective is considered, followed ultimately by the conclusion that adopting a parental perspective through an intrahousehold allocation model seems closest to meeting the needs of the estimation problem at hand. A policy example in which the choice of perspective affects the outcome of a regulatory benefit‐cost analysis rounds out the article and emphasizes the importance of perspective.     

基于聚集经济的影响外商直接投资的因素分析

文章选取广东省 2 1个行政区 1996至 2 0 0 2年的数据 ,采用主因子分析和多元统计回归分析对影响外资在广东聚集的因素进行分析 ,因子分析从 11个解释变量中提取出五个主因子 ,它们分别是经济发展规模和水平、产业聚集、劳动力聚集、经济开放度和政策因子。回归分析表明了每个解释变量对利用外资额的弹性。文章最后提出了产业聚集的引资策略。     

重庆市股份制商业银行的SWOT分析

根据一般企业的SWOT分析理论,对商业银行的SWOT分析要素进行设计。运用这种方法对重庆市股份制商业银行的内部优势、劣势以及外部机遇和威胁进行分析。根据分析结果,提出相应的经营措施。     

论高校图书馆的经营与发展

网络资源的快速增长向传统方式经营下的高校图书馆提出了挑战,也带来了构建新型高校图书馆的机遇.高校图书馆是否能够再续辉煌,在于它们是否能够抓住机遇,走出一条特色化的发展道路.高校图书馆的业务定位、组织模式定位与职权明确、是否建立了有效的激励机制是其决定其改革与发展的优先考虑的基本问题,只有在解决了这些基本性问题之后,高校图书馆才有积极性展开对内部组织与资金资源合理配置、新型网络图书服务建立、个性化专业化服务展开、馆际合作等经营活动.     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

娱乐类文本短信的语用分析

本文选取娱乐类文本短信,试用指示语、预设、言语行为、会话含义、礼貌原则、关联理论等语用学的基本理论来分析它,旨在探究语用规律和娱乐类文本短信的关系,以期对语言交际和语言教学有所启发和指导。     

“霸王条款”形成的博弈分析

霸王条款违背了市场经济自由、平等和公平的原则,严重侵害消费者权益。对霸王条款显失公平的判断可以通过经济分析的方法进行,分析其成因旨在为铲除霸王条款提供决策上的依据。     

县域经济影响因素的数量经济分析

县域经济受多种因素影响,影响程度不同。各因素对县域经济内部不同层次和整个县域经济发展的影响也不一样,差异很大。建立县域经济影响因素数量经济模型并进行多层面实证分析,可以得到县域土地面积与县域经济水平反比等重要结论。     

我国民营企业衰败的内部因素

改革开放以来,随着我国市场经济体制的逐步建立,一大批民营企业迅速崛起。但是也有一部分企业在取得了短暂的辉煌之后迅速地走向了衰败。导致民企衰败的原因可以分为外部因素和内部因素两大类,内部因素主要表现在忽视基础管理、战略缺失、非理性决策和盲目扩张等几个方面。